The Portland Trail Blazers are about to enter an 18-month stretch of intense decision-making as several key members of their roster come up for contract decisions. Trades always beckon, as any team with a .442 winning percentage is, by definition, looking to improve.

Even though the Blazers have answered questions this season, the path ahead remains unclear. Piercing through that fog is the subject of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag question.

Dave,

Who stays on this roster next fall? Who will be here in three years? I think Deni, Tou, and Shae are locks but who else? Are you a Scoot guy? Clingan?

Kyle

You’ve named the five young players that most Blazers fans are excited about, or at least can identify as a strong part of the potential future of the team.

I don’t disagree with you that Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara seem like the backbone of Portland’s future. I’d put Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan Clingan in the tier right below them, followed by Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and the rest.

Here’s the reality I see with this roster, however. Just because these are the best players you have doesn’t mean they’re the best players to have.

The Blazers are in a danger zone, ascending the NBA ranks but not anywhere close to contending. There’s a temptation to rely on the players who took you from 0% to 40% as the same ones who will take you from 80% to 100%. The distance between those percentages is vast. It’s a lot easier to get average in the NBA than to get good. Plenty of players can do the former. The latter requires targeted acquisitions.

Portland’s roster is still fractured, incomplete, and frankly, underpowered. Their golden rule over the next year and change should be to hold onto their players lightly. Don’t fall in love with any of the current roster members yet. No worries. The ones you like best are also under the longest, most sensible contracts already. But don’t marry yourself to them, even. The needs of this roster will look far different three years from now than they do today.

Obviously some members of the team will carry over into the future. The ones you named above are the likeliest candidates. But I wouldn’t bet on all five of them being here in three years, let alone the rest of the roster. The truest answer to your question is, “I’m not convinced any of them should be.”

I would avoid overpaying—and in some cases, even paying—Portland’s players until the road ahead is clearer and the potholes identified. Right now I can’t tell whether the Blazers need a cement mixer and construction crew or a Ferrari and a pit crew. I’m not extending or renewing anybody until I see another draft or two, maybe the opportunity to make more trades as well.

“If we don’t pay them, we’ll lose them.” is a great motivator for a 60-win team. It’s not at all convincing for a team winning 35. Keeping the wallet closed and eyes open is the prudent course this summer and probably in the season beyond. If they lose players, they lose them. That’s better than having a closet full of middling decorations that don’t fit together well, let alone fit the decor of that new house you’re building.

When somebody steps forward as the unquestioned center of the next era, we’ll know it. We won’t even have to ask. Until then keep growing, keep agile, and keep counting those ping pong balls.

Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll answer as many as possible!