Put some champagne on ice: The Chicago Bulls are on pace to avoid losing 50 games this season.
At 27-38 after their 121-103 win over the Indiana Pacers on Monday, the Bulls are on pace for 34 wins. That would tie them with the 2021-22 San Antonio Spurs for the worst record in Play-In Tournament history.
This will be the fifth season for the current format of the Play-In, and the Bulls have a 4 1/2-game lead over the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets (22-42) for 10th. The Toronto Raptors (22-43) also linger.
Here’s the thing: None of these teams really wants to make the Play-In, with the forthcoming NBA Draft far more important for each of them. The Athletic’s Darnell Mayberry (Bulls), Eric Koreen (Raptors) and Jared Weiss (Eastern Conference, including the 76ers and Nets) got together to talk about the tortoise race.
Koreen: I don’t know if you guys have done a deep dive on the NBA rulebook lately. It turns out that one team must finish in each of the 15 spots in both conferences, including 10th in the Eastern Conference.
I swear, it’s right in there — and it’s that specific about the 10th spot. Weird.
This might present a problem, as none of the four teams “fighting” for the final Play-In berth in the conference is hellbent on getting there. The Bulls, Nets, 76ers and Raptors are incentivized, to some level, to play for draft position. None of them identifies the Play-In Tournament as a goal, with Joel Embiid’s season-ending injury cementing that perspective for the 76ers.
Is it strange to think the Raptors, who were tied for the third-worst record in the league as recently as Jan. 22, are the best of the four? For one, they were the only team of the quartet to make a move to improve at the trade deadline, although the acquisition of Brandon Ingram likely won’t impact the standings this season.
They are a positively competent 15-17 since Jan. 1, seventh best (or ninth worst) in the conference. Before their win over the Washington Wizards on Monday, they had a minus-2.4 net rating in that time compared to the minus-7.9 they posted before the calendar turned. (Since Jan. 1, Chicago is at minus-4.8, Philadelphia is minus-6.5 and Brooklyn is minus-8.8.) Better health is the biggest reason for the improvement. If they hadn’t collapsed in Chicago on Feb. 28, I’d pick them to finish 10th.
They have a comically soft schedule the rest of the way. They play two teams that are currently .500 or better. Even if they didn’t want to win, they would win a bunch of these games accidentally. That’s the rub, though: Going 14-4 to finish the season and sneaking into the Play-In is not in their long-term best interest.
So, what’s going on with your teams?
Mayberry: Go back to our preseason bold predictions from early October. Scroll down to the Central Division. Read what I wrote about the Bulls. Every word has come to fruition. This is just what the Bulls do.
For the third straight season, it looks like Chicago will make the Play-in Tournament, as the Bulls are virtually locked into the 10th seed. Their refusal to pick a clear direction — beyond the bare minimum objective of being competitive — has led to such prolonged mediocrity that this entire Bulls season played out as expected.
The Bulls never committed to chasing a top draft pick this year or they would have traded Zach LaVine last summer rather than days before the Feb. 6 trade deadline. Additionally, veteran starting center Nikola Vučević wouldn’t still be on the roster. And after trading their 2025 first-round pick to San Antonio to acquire DeMar DeRozan, the Bulls had to trade LaVine as part of the three-team deal that sent De’Aaron Fox from the Sacramento Kings to San Antonio just to get their selection back.
It’s not all bad. There’s a blueprint for the Bulls courtesy of the Atlanta Hawks. Last year, the Hawks made the Play-In as the 10th seed, lost their first game to the Bulls and went on to improbably win the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery. The Hawks had just a 3 percent chance last year. The Bulls have a 6 percent chance to come away with Duke’s freshman sensation, Cooper Flagg.
There are more sensible approaches to rebuilding, but the Bulls’ young nucleus is gaining valuable experience, remaining competitive and developing through meaningful minutes. The Bulls can only hope they’ll get the same lottery luck that last year’s Hawks did.
Weiss: This season is such a great illustration of why we have the Play-In. The Milwaukee Bucks, Pacers and Detroit Pistons are all jockeying for position in the middle of the pack, and there’s a stark drop-off once you get to the Play-In spots. It’s funny how we also have a trio of teams treading water at seven through nine, then just a morass of despair below that. The Sixers somehow keep finding new depths in there.
Their mission this season has been clear for a while, but it has been underlined in zigzag permanent ink now. Tank. Then tank some more. The Sixers are doing a great job of it lately. Everyone is hurt. They are 3-14 since the start of February. They have the worst defense in the league since the new year. It’s just tough to watch.
Joel Embiid is averaging 23.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game for the flailing Sixers. (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)
Unless Embiid and Paul George show up to training camp this fall with rainbows and sunshine shooting out of their knees, there’s not much hope for the process to survive. That’s why they absolutely have to keep their draft pick this year, which is top-six protected. They are tied for sixth with Brooklyn in the reverse standings. In that scenario, if they lost the coin flip with the Nets and didn’t move up in the lottery from there, they would send their pick to … the Oklahoma City Thunder. Pretty much the entire league is praying the Sixers pull this off.
There isn’t much more the Sixers can do to tank at this point. It’s going spectacularly well, and they’re even getting some development out of deadline acquisition Quentin Grimes and rookie wing Justin Edwards. But we can eliminate them from Play-In contention.
Koreen: I’m glad you turned the conversation to the draft, Jared, as that is the thing keeping these teams from going all in on the Play-In. The Raptors were likely heading toward a rebuilding year even before Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley suffered significant injuries early in the season, when their schedule was at its toughest. They’ve been much better as they’ve gotten healthier, but the Ingram trade puts additional pressure on the Raptors to get a good pick this year. They have enough talent to fight for an actual playoff spot — top six maybe — next year, so making this year’s early losses worth it feels essential.
And that’s why we’re getting incidents such as the one in Orlando last week or Saturday’s bizarre scene against Washington, when the Raptors benched all their starters in the fourth quarter of close games. Nobody will say it, but the organization knows it must pull some levers to lose some games down the stretch. That the Orlando Magic couldn’t pull out the win the Raptors were essentially gifting them only made the Raptors’ late-season situation stranger. Given the state of things for the Dallas Mavericks, the Phoenix Suns are the third-best team left on the Raptors’ schedule.
Weiss: The Nets are suffering from a compelling case of 10th-seedery. General manager Sean Marks made a deal with the Houston Rockets on draft night to recoup the picks they originally sent out in the James Harden deal. They regained control of their first this and next season, putting their destiny back in their hands before their remaining pick swap with Houston kicks in for the 2027 draft. That gives them two years to draft their stars of the future and then start building into an organically grown contender for the first time in decades.
The problem is they hired a good coach, Jordi Fernández, who had the Nets as high as fourth in the East three weeks into the season. Marks put the kibosh on that, trading several of their key starters. But they couldn’t get the price they wanted for Cam Johnson at the deadline and surprisingly held on to their best trade asset and kept playing just decently enough not to bottom out. Luckily for them, they are still in a good lottery position, but they are still within striking distance of Chicago.
Mayberry: Marks did for the Nets what Bulls chief basketball executive Artūras Karnišovas should have done much earlier in Chicago: Sell! By doing his work early, Marks positioned the Nets to have their best chance at a top-four selection. Apparently, the spirit of competition precludes Chicago from such forward-thinking maneuvers. The Bulls have notoriously refused to act on such opportunities.
As a result, the Bulls must now be mindful of San Antonio (26-37) and the Portland Trail Blazers (28-38) out West in the race to the finish. Both could lose more than the Bulls and bump Chicago further down the draft board. Of course, Bulls fans aren’t sure the front office can be trusted with a high draft pick.
In 2020, the Bulls selected Patrick Williams at No. 4, passing on more productive players — Tyrese Haliburton and Tyrese Maxey among them. In 2022, the Bulls selected Dalen Terry with the 18th pick over fellow first-rounders such as Christian Braun, Walker Kessler and Peyton Watson.
After their missteps, the Bulls must rethink their game plan, hit on this draft pick and earn back fan trust. The pressure’s on in Chicago in more ways than one in this home stretch.
Koreen: Let’s get out of here with two quick ones: (1.) If your team(s) won the lottery, how would Cooper Flagg fit? (2.) How will the standings play out?
Flagg in Toronto would be fascinating, as the Raptors might be the most talented team heading for the lottery in the Eastern Conference. There is some overlap between Flagg and Barnes, especially with Ingram in Toronto as well. I imagine the Raptors would let a year play out before they made any big decisions, and having two versatile, disruptive defenders such as Flagg and Barnes would be a blast. As has been the case for Barnes’ entire time in Toronto, half-court offense would be the question. It would be bumpy, but I’d love to see the experiment before the Raptors streamlined the roster.
As for the standings: (10.) Chicago, (11.) Toronto, (12.) Philadelphia, (13.) Brooklyn. It’s hard to imagine the 76ers winning often, but their schedule is far easier than the Nets’, which is the tiebreaker right now.
And Darnell, are you getting ready to write the definitive book on the Play-In?
Weiss: The Sixers and Nets laugh at your Flagg question. How would he fit?! The question is how fast can they rearrange their teams around him?
The Nets are an open canvas, so they can go in any direction assembling a team around Flagg. With Nic Claxton, they have the center they need to let Flagg roam free defensively and maximize his enormous potential. They could keep Cams Thomas and Johnson on the perimeter and have a decent foundation for the future, waiting for another star playmaker to shake loose. Tanking might not be an option for them because Flagg is a dream fit for the scheme Fernández found success with early in the season. They would be a Play-In team next year if the front office gave them a chance.
If Philly wins Capture the Flagg, that frees it to endure another year of trying to keep Embiid and George healthy and kicking the rebuild can down the road. It’s hard to know how good Flagg will be early on, but a lineup of Maxey, Jared McCain, Flagg, George and Embiid sounds like a serious title contender if most of them are healthy. Flagg’s role would be reminiscent of Jayson Tatum’s in 2017-18, when he went from being a star playmaker at Duke to excelling as a 3-and-D role player for a contending Celtics team at 19. That would be a dream come true for the Sixers, as they would have a shot at the title while accelerating the development of their young core.
Predicting the standings is tough. Chicago at 10 is obvious, and Toronto finishing at 11 makes sense, as it has just a little too much talent. The Nets and Sixers are so good at losing right now. But then they have random wins, particularly whenever Grimes goes off for Philly. But since the Sixers are more desperate for lottery position due to the protections on their pick, I’ll give the nod to Brooklyn to finish ahead of them on the tiebreaker. I’m not sure strength of schedule matters when your rotation is this weak.
Mayberry: There’s a running joke among Chicago media members that we should buy a timeshare in Miami for our annual Play-In visit.
Although I enjoy South Florida and applaud the NBA’s efforts to provide fans and scribes like us some measure of competitiveness in the stretch run, the Play-In just feels cheap. The league is attempting to curtail tanking not simply by legitimizing mediocrity but also by rewarding franchises for it. Rarely will any of these Play-In teams make real noise in the playoffs, save for the Miami Heat’s run to the 2023 NBA Finals. After three seasons of Play-In madness, I’ve seen enough. Unimaginative front offices like the Bulls are shamefully using the Play-In Tournament to lower the bar for success. Finishing 10th is now viewed as some sort of victory rather than what it truly is: nothing more than a reminder that your favorite team is the best among the league’s worst.
I digress.
Cooper Flagg, you say? He’d fit great everywhere, but the Bulls really need an infusion of some star power from a player like him. He’d form a nice tandem of building blocks alongside high-flying Bulls rookie Matas Buzelis, the No. 11 pick in last year’s draft, and immediately restore faith to a once-proud franchise.
I’d be shocked, however, if the Bulls got lucky in the lottery. They haven’t won the thing since 2008, when they lucked into Derrick Rose. And since the Bulls remain committed to winning, they don’t have much hope of improving their odds. As for the standings, my prediction is: (10.) Chicago, (11.) Toronto, (12.) Brooklyn, (13.) Philadelphia.
I’ll get started on the book from our timeshare on South Beach.
(Top photo of Scottie Barnes and Dalen Terry: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)