The SEC released the Men’s Basketball conference schedule today. It feels like this is happening earlier and earlier in the year. Just a few years ago I was putting together previews for the season begging the schedule to come out, and now I haven’t even started and the schedule is already here. Good things I suppose.
Missouri’s schedule didn’t show many surprises but with any schedule there are going to be key games where you want your team to show up, and it could be the difference between a protected NCAA tournament seed and an unprotected seed, or wearing home whites in the first round versus wearing your road uniforms, or being safely in to being on the bubble. With the even-ness of the league if you flip a few extra games your way you can turn all those tides in your favor.
Before I dive in, yes this is basketball and yes every game is a winnable game, and every game is a losable game. Last season Missouri beat the eventual national champions on their home floor, then they lost their last three road games against teams they were favored to beat! So that’s how things go sometimes.
Here is Missouri’s schedule in order (in parenthesis are the BartTorvik.com preseason rankings):
January 3rd – HOME vs. Florida (5)January 7th – AWAY vs Kentucky (14)January 10th – AWAY vs Ole Miss (47)January 13th – HOME vs Auburn (26)January 17th – AWAY vs LSU (67)January 20th – HOME vs Georgia (33)January 24th – HOME vs Oklahoma (31)January 27th – AWAY vs Alabama (20)January 31st – HOME vs Mississippi State (40)ByeFebruary 7th – AWAY vs South Carolina (106)February 10th – AWAY vs Texas A&M (37)February 14th – HOME vs Texas (36)Feburary 17th – HOME vs Vanderbilt (21)February 21st – AWAY vs Arkansas (16)February 24th – HOME vs Tennessee (13)February 28th – AWAY vs Mississippi State (40)March 3rd – AWAY vs Oklahoma (31)March 7th – HOME vs Arkansas (16)
The home and home games against Arkansas and Oklahoma remain the same. This year the SEC added Mississippi State (sigh) as the third home and home. Missouri is ranked 29th in Torvik’s preseason rankings. So here are the games Mizzou should be expected to win: vs Auburn, at LSU, vs Georgia, vs Oklahoma, vs MSU, at South Carolina, vs Texas, vs Vanderbilt.
That’s 8 wins if you just hold serve in games you are very likely to be more than a possession favorite in. As we get expected outcomes I can further narrow those down, but here are what I would move into the expected losses category: at Kentucky, at Alabama, at Texas A&M, at Arkansas, at Oklahoma,
That’s 5 losses, leaving 5 games in what I’ll call ‘toss up’ category, or very likely to be within a possession or maybe 4 points when expected scores are released later: vs Florida, at Ole Miss, vs Tennessee, at MSU, vs Arkansas
That’s probably being generous to Mizzou on putting the game against Florida as a toss-up, at least analytically. But three of those games are at home against SEC title contenders. Two on the road against teams you are projected to be better than but both come after you already faced the team at home.
Apr 7, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden cuts down the net after defeating the Houston Cougars in the national championship game of the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
The Gators are the reigning Champions, and Missouri has a good chance to spoil their victory parade by handing them a loss in the conference opener. Head Coach Todd Golden lost much of his backcourt production, but he returns key front court pieces Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Rueben Chinyelu. To supplement the losses of Walter Clayton, Jr, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard (not to mention Denzel Aberdeen who transferred to Kentucky) the Gators added Princeton transfer Xavian Lee and Arkansas transfer Boogie Fland. Many are expecting the Gators to be national contenders again this season. But that’s a lot of back court production to replace…
Home games vs Tennessee and Arkansas
Tennessee head basketball coach Rick Barnes and Arkansas head basketball coach John Calipari meet after Tennessee wins a college basketball against Arkansas held at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, January 4, 2025. Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Rick Barnes and John Calipari have been fighting for the top of the league for the better part of a decade, and now Cal is doing so at Arkansas instead of Kentucky.
For the Volunteers, Barnes is without Zakai Zeigler for the first time in four years. To replace him they added Maryland transfer guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and Louisiana Tech guard Amaree Abram (formerly of Ole Miss). Back to anchor the defense once again is Felix Okpara, and Barnes is hopeful JP Estrella can stay healthy, but if not Vanderbilt transfer Jaylen Carey should help out in the front court. Then they added 5-star projected lottery pick Nate Ament to the roster. The Vols should be good again.
Arkansas might be a darkhorse pick to win the league, Cal has again assembled what might be the most talented roster when you factor in 5-star signees Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas. Both guards, they join returners DJ Wagner, Karter Knox, and Billy Richmond on what should be a loaded back court. The supplement the interior, Cal added South Carolina transfer Nick Pringle, and Florida State transfer Malique Ewin.
Mississippi State Head Coach Chris Jans has a discussion with the referee during their second round game of the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament against Missouri at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Thursday, March 13, 2025. Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Mizzou beat Mississipi State twice last year, can they do it again? If anything the Bulldogs look like a slightly weaker roster, but they return all SEC guard Josh Hubbard. They also added a ton of experienced big men with Quincy Ballard, Achor Achor, and Brandon Walker to go with transfers Ja’Borri McGee and Jayden Epps in the backcourt. Chris Jans is hoping this team is more to his liking as last year he often complained about a lack of toughness from his squad.
Meanwhile Oklahoma spent a lot of money in the transfer portal but didn’t really add much depth. At the top line they have St. Joe’s transfer Xzayvier Brown and Miami transfer Nijel Pack, plus Alabama 5-star transfer wing Derrion Reed. It’s a talented crew but certainly looks like a game you can get… if you just ignore how often Mizzou has travelled to Normal and not come out of there with a W.