Five of the six players selected ahead of Jonathan Kuminga in the 2021 NBA draft, and the one taken directly behind him, already got their bag.
Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley each signed contract extensions worth $269 million over five years. Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner each landed $224 million for five years. Jalen Suggs (five years, $150 million) and Jalen Green (three years, $105 million) also secured their financial futures.
This provides striking context for Kuminga’s prolonged stalemate with the Golden State Warriors.
Kuminga naturally pictures himself in the same realm as those players, complete with a comparable salary. He might get there one day, but for now he’s faced with this unappetizing choice: a team-friendly, two-year contract potentially worth $45 million, or the qualifying offer of one year at $7.9 million, with the carrot of unrestricted free agency next summer.
Not exactly a real-world crisis — but also not $200 million-plus guaranteed.
“He apparently thinks he’s at the Cade Cunningham-Scottie Barnes level, where he should get that type of contract,” one league source said of Kuminga. “… It’s really a quandary. I think it’s bad for the Warriors and bad for him.”
That was a reference to the possibility of Kuminga accepting the qualifying offer, an uncommon scenario in today’s NBA. Kuminga might say he’s fine betting on himself, as he did last week on Instagram, but there’s still abundant risk on both sides.
For him, it’s the possibility of injury and diminishing value. For the Warriors, it’s the prospect of one tense season followed by a highly skilled young player leaving for nothing in return.
Kuminga, 22, almost certainly will return to Golden State for the upcoming season, given the team’s lack of interest in trade packages offered by Sacramento and Phoenix. As the source put it, “I don’t think he has a choice, because they’re not going to acquiesce to his trade requests. There’s no palatable sign-and-trade for the Warriors.”
As Kuminga’s restricted free-agency saga stretches into its second month, the fortunes of that 2021 draft class seemed worth exploring. Former NBA head coach Stan Van Gundy, now an analyst for Amazon after calling games on TNT in recent seasons, contemplated the top of the draft in a phone interview: Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Josh Giddey, Kuminga and Wagner.
Van Gundy raved about Kuminga’s athletic ability and improving efficiency on offense — but also explained why he remains behind most of those on the list.
“Cade Cunningham has proven to be the best of that class,” Van Gundy said. “He has been the No. 1 guy and elevated his team, proven he’s an All-Star. Kuminga could make a better case with Barnes, but the difference between those guys is their ability to make plays for other people, not just put up scoring numbers. Barnes can really pass and help you that way.
“Probably the closest comparison in terms of a package of skills is Jalen Green. I understand if you’re Kuminga you can argue it’s (lack of) opportunity, but Green has proven himself at a higher level, as the leading scorer on a 50-win playoff team. Kuminga has never been more than a role guy. Whether it’s opportunity or not, those guys certainly deserve to be paid at a higher level.”
Kuminga’s statistics through four seasons pale in comparison to his draft cohorts, given his modest minutes. He’s averaging 12.5 points, 4 rebounds and 1.8 assists for his career; by contrast, Cunningham (22.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 7.4 assists) and Barnes (17.2, 7.5, 5) have been much more productive.
Just looking at last season, and checking the numbers per 36 minutes, the gap narrows. Kuminga averaged 22.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists; Cunningham was at 26.9, 6.2 and 9.4; and Barnes averaged 21.1, 8.5 and 6.4.
Beyond the numbers, Van Gundy wondered whether Kuminga helps his team enough in ways other than scoring — such as passing and crashing the offensive boards.
“I would say Wagner is a winning player, and also Cunningham and Barnes,” Van Gundy said. “I’m not sure about Kuminga. I don’t see the overall understanding of the game that allows him to fit among other guys, and help a team play well at both ends.”
The trajectory of Kuminga’s career differs from his ’21 peers, in part, because he joined a legitimate contender. The Warriors won the championship in his rookie season and have prioritized the present over the future, as they chase another title with Stephen Curry.
So Kuminga’s time on the court has fluctuated. He played big minutes in December, before his sprained ankle and before Jimmy Butler arrived, and produced big numbers (though the Warriors went 4-9 for the month).
The Warriors were rolling when Kuminga returned in mid-March, with Butler consuming most of the minutes at his position. Head coach Steve Kerr brought Kuminga off the bench in his final 15 regular-season games, still playing significant minutes but trying to find his place alongside Curry and Butler.
That’s the same balancing act Kerr probably will need to attempt in the season ahead.
“I think when Jonathan came back, we tried to put him in a role-playing state, and he just wasn’t really suited for that,” Kerr said in a Chronicle interview in May, during the conference semifinals against Minnesota. “He’s a high-usage guy, so to ask him to play without the ball because Steph and Jimmy had the ball, it wasn’t clicking.”
Nearly three months later, Kuminga finds himself in contractual limbo, much like Chicago’s Giddey — taken one spot ahead of Kuminga in the 2021 draft. The market dried up, leaving little money for restricted free agents.
Kuminga remains a captivating presence for the Warriors, fueled by the way he gracefully glides downcourt and soars to the rim for splashy dunks. The lesson here: That alone won’t earn him a bag of cash.
“He’s only 22, without a lot of experience, so could all this improve? Absolutely,” Van Gundy said. “If you’re going to have him out there, you have to play through him. To me, he’s either a primary scorer on a bad team or a bench scorer on a good team.”
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