Los Angeles, CA – January 17: Lakers point guard D’Angelo Russell, #1, left, shoots as Mavericks point guard Kyrie Irving, #11, defends in the first half at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024. Lakers win 110-127. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
The 2025 offseason has been an eventful one, including multiple blockbuster trades and numerous impactful role players changing teams. But the more I think about it, there is one signing that could be more important than the rest – depending on what version of this player they get.
The Dallas Mavericks Sign D’Angelo Russell
After lucking into the first overall pick and using it to draft Cooper Flagg, the Dallas Mavericks had a relatively quiet offseason – re-signing Kyrie Irving, extending Daniel Gafford, and adding D’Angelo Russell to a two-year, 11.7 million dollar deal (the second year being a player option).
That last transaction is the subject of this analysis. On paper, Russell’s contract is a good value add. He is set to make 5.7 million dollars next season, but my formula estimates his production value to be roughly 9.9 million. However, given this team’s roster construction, the Mavericks will need Russell to be worth way more than ten million dollars in 2025-26 if they plan on maximizing this team.
(*Note: In today’s financial landscape, ten million dollars of production is what you’d see from a mid/high-level bench player. As we will explain, Russell will need to be at least a solid starting point guard, which is closer to 17-20 million dollars of production).
Why Russell Is So Important To The Mavericks
The 2025-26 Mavericks project to be pretty deep. They have not one, not two, but three (!!) starting caliber centers in Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and Anthony Davis (the latter being a perennial All-NBA caliber performer). They also have a surplus of rangy wings/forwards in Flagg, PJ Washington, Naji Marshall, Max Christie, Caleb Martin, and Klay Thompson. This gives the Mavericks a ton of size, athleticism, and lineup versatility – three attributes we often see from high-end modern-day teams.
However, the Mavericks are sorely lacking in one key area: on-ball creation. Davis is a career 24.1 PPG scorer, but he is at his best when he has the table set for him. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving, the team’s main floor general, could miss the entirety of the season as he rehabs a torn ACL. Even if he does come back, it isn’t realistic to expect him to be close to his usual All-Star self.
Jaden Hardy and Brandon Williams are also on the payroll, but they lack the body of work to feel good about either of them carrying a massive load. This leaves the onus on Russell to be this team’s primary generator of offense.
What makes this dynamic so interesting is that Russell is one of the most polarizing players in the league. On one hand, he is a crafty scorer (career 17.6 PPG), solid shooter (career 36.5% from three), and gifted passer (96th percentile in Passer Rating last season). But, on the other hand, he is also a below-average defender (28th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes) with a history of inconsistent offensive showings (I’ve heard Ben Taylor refer to him as “Trick or Treat” Russell because you never know what you are going to get from him).
The last we saw of Russell, he looked more like the “Trick” version of this moniker – averaging just 12.9 PPG on 50.8% true shooting during his 29-game reunion tour with the Brooklyn Nets. To be fair to him, that showing was on a depleted 26-win team that wasn’t exactly aiming for a playoff berth.
That last note doesn’t mean Russell is completely off the hook. He will be 30 by the time the 2026 NBA Playoffs roll around, and one has to wonder how many treats the soon-to-be eleven-year veteran still has in his bag.
If Russell can be the guy he was in 2023-24 (18 PPG on 58.8% TS), this Mavericks roster will make a lot more sense and challenge for a top six spot in the loaded Western Conference. But if he’s anything less than that, Dallas will certainly be a bottom ten offense in the association. If that’s the case, they will be lucky to return to the play-in tournament.
Arguably no 2025 free agent wields this type of power, making Russell one of the most circumstantial additions of this offseason.