Ohio State continues to hold steady in Joe Lunardi’s NCAA Tournament projections, but the latest update at ESPN.com hints at higher expectations for the Buckeyes.
In his latest bracket update published Aug. 26, Lunardi has Ohio State as a No. 6 seed facing No. 11 seed Memphis in a first-round game in San Diego. It would mark a return to March Madness after a three-year drought for the Buckeyes, but Lunardi’s introduction to this update puts them in contention for more.
The Big Ten has not won a men’s basketball title since Michigan State in 2000, and Lunardi likens talk of the conference and its championship aspirations to “Peanuts” character Lucy holding the football out for perpetually optimistic Charlie Brown to kick. After noting that the Big Ten has placed 152 teams into the tournament since 2000, the most of any conference, Purdue is a No. 1 seed and Michigan a No. 2 seed in this bracket.
After that, though, Lunardi lists a few Big Ten teams with the capability to surprise in March. Ohio State makes that list.
“UCLA, Illinois and Michigan State could legitimately play in April,” Lunardi wrote. “Then there are the dark horses − Ohio State, Wisconsin, USC, Oregon, Maryland, Iowa, Washington and Indiana − who could reach a Sweet 16, at least. For a change, the Big Ten appears to have both quantity and quality.”
Lunardi has 11 Big Ten teams projected to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament, second only to the SEC’s 14. After Purdue and Michigan, Lunardi has Illinois and UCLA as No. 4 seeds and Michigan State as a No. 5 seed.
After Ohio State as a No. 6 seed, Wisconsin, USC and Oregon are all listed as No. 7 seeds. Maryland is a No. 9 seed and Iowa is a No. 11 seed as one of the final four teams to make the tournament.
Three Big Ten teams are then among the first four out: Washington, which is the first team on the wrong side of the cut line, Indiana and Nebraska.
The winner of Ohio State-Memphis would be projected to play the winner of a game between No. 3 seed Arizona and No. 14 seed South Dakota State.
Ohio State men’s basketball beat writer Adam Jardy can be reached at ajardy@dispatch.com, on Instagram at hoops_and_scoops, on Bluesky at @cdadamjardy.bsky.social or on Twitter at @AdamJardy.