Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetotokounmpo are not the only perennial NBA All-Stars that could be on the move this summer.
While Durant’s next destination was revealed last Sunday and Giannis is expected to remain in Milwaukee (as of July 1, he’s -900 to start next season as a Buck), 40-year-old LeBron James has joined those two on the list of huge names who could be on the move.
As he enters Year 23, James’ situation is suddenly more complicated than Durant’s or Antetotokounmpo’s. He was not expected to finish his career outside of Los Angeles until a couple of interesting moves and comments came to light this weekend.
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LeBron James News: Could LeBron Leave L.A.?
First, James opted into his $52.6 million player option for the upcoming season. As ESPN’s Brian Windhorst explained, this was significant because LeBron has never played a season on an expiring contract.
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If James’ decision to opt in for 2025-26 (instead of signing a longer-term deal to cover ’26-27 and beyond) weren’t enough to spark questions about his plans, comments on Sunday from his agent, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul, intensified the speculation about James possibly eyeing an exit from Los Angeles.
Paul made waves by saying that James “wants to compete for a championship.” Paul added, “He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all.”
And while it’s early, it’s hard to argue that the Lakers have gotten off to a great start to free agency. Dorian Finney-Smith, who signed with the Rockets earlier this week, will be missed for his defensive versatility.
The Lakers did sign 23-year-old backup wing Jake LaRavia to a two-year, $12 million deal this week, but until they land a center and a few more pieces, their roster will have some serious holes besides James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.
LeBron James Next Team Odds At DraftKings
Time will tell whether James is genuinely open to finishing his career with a team besides the Lakers. Based on his history, there’s a real chance he is just looking to put pressure on L.A. to maximize his chances to compete for a title in 2025-26.
That being said, the message James and Paul sent this weekend was impossible to ignore.
The immediate ripple effects included DraftKings adding a “LeBron James Next Team Odds” market.
The odds below come from DraftKings (as of July 1).
Fine print, from DK: “First Regular Season minute played to be for which NBA team? [2025-26 only]”
Note: While DraftKings offers odds for all 30 teams in this market, we’re listing the 10 that currently have the shortest odds (50-to-1 or shorter).
In addition to each team’s betting odds, we’re also listing the implied probability that those odds carry.
LeBron James Next Team Analysis, Prediction
Let’s start with a reminder that for a bet on anyone besides the Lakers to cash, a deal for LeBron would have to happen before the 2025-26 season begins in October.
While it’s easy to imagine James forcing his way out during the season if the Lakers get off to a rough start, the question here is whether we should expect a move this summer.
The case for the Lakers keeping James in place until at least October is obvious, hence their current -1000 odds.
The Mavericks and Cavaliers are both worth considering as James’ next destination given that their odds are at least somewhat realistic at 10-to-1 or shorter.
In the case of the Mavericks, which just shook up their roster in one of the most shocking moves in league history last winer, it’s hard to imagine another seismic deal seven months after they shipped Luka Doncic to L.A.
Then again, if there’s one NBA GM who has recently proven himself to be completely unpredictable, it’s Nico Harrison, and there’s no close second. Still, the Mavericks are far from tempting at their current odds of +600.
If there’s a team with an intriguing shot at landing James, it’s his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers at 10-to-1 odds. Cleveland had an outstanding 2024-25 regular season before injuries prevented the Cavs from making a deep playoff run in the East.
After acquiring Lonzo Ball in a trade with the Bulls, this team has an intriguing roster around All-Star Donovan Mitchell and 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley.
I wouldn’t call Cleveland a realistic landing spot for James, but this is the team I would recommend betting on if you insist on making a play here right now.
To be clear, though, while the LeBron-leaving-LA speculation is undeniably interesting, it also seems unlikely to amount to anything concrete (at least based on what we know right now).
Best Bet on LeBron James Next Team*: Lakers (-1000)
*Betting on anything priced anywhere near as short as -1000 never tempts me. I do expect the Lakers to avoid losing LeBron this summer, though, so this would be best bet, but with a substantial asterisk.
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