The Denver Nuggets visit the Oklahoma City Thunder Tuesday in Game 5 of their best-of-7, Western Conference semifinals series as both aim to take a 3-2 lead after splitting the first 2 games. Tip-off from Paycom Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT / truTV / MAX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Nuggets vs. Thunder odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Tied 2-2

Oklahoma City managed to pull out a 92-87 win in Sunday’s Game 4 but didn’t cover as a 7-point road favorite while the Under (228) hit. OKC’s defense was the story as the Thunder held the Nuggets to 31.3% shooting from the field (25-for-80), including an abysmal 24.4% from deep (11-for-45). G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a team-high 25 points and C Isaiah Hartenstein (14) and F Chet Holmgren (13) combined for 27 of the Thunder’s 55 rebounds while scoring 8 points apiece. Plus, the Thunder outscored the Nuggets 30-20 in the paint.

Only 1 of Denver’s 7 players who attempted a shot finished 50% or better shooting from the field — F Aaron Gordon was 5-for-10 and finished with 15 points and a game-high 16 rebounds. Over the last 2 games, OKC has held Denver start C Nikola Jokic to 9 assists while forcing 10 turnovers and holding the MVP-caliber center to just 31.9% shooting from the field (15-for-47) and 11.1% shooting from deep (2-for-18). Jokic went 7-for-22 from the field, including 2-for-8 from 3 to finish with a game-high 27 points in Sunday’s loss.

Nuggets at Thunder odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Thunder -475 (bet $475 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +10.5 (-110) | Thunder -10.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Nuggets at Thunder key injuries

Nuggets

Thunder

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Nuggets at Thunder picks and predictionsPrediction

Nuggets 113, Thunder 110

Consider a small wager on DENVER (+360).

I lean toward the Nuggets winning to take a 3-2 lead in the series. But I don’t want to risk my entire bet on the moneyline, which will pay 3.6-to-1 with an outright win. So, I’ll wager a half unit on the ML and the rest on the spread.

The Thunder (-475) are still the more talented team, but Jokic has not looked like himself as of late.

BET NUGGETS +10.5 (-110).

Despite a 1-1 showing, Denver covered the spread in the last 2 games and is 3-1 ATS in this series. The Nuggets are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games, while the Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.

To put it simply, the Nuggets and Jokic played about as badly as they possibly could have in Sunday’s loss, yet they still only lost by 5 points. I project the Nuggets to cover as they, including Jokic, will play better and shoot much better than their Game 4 nightmare.

My suggestion is to bet 1½ UNITS total between Denver’s ML (+360) and spread (+10.5 | -110), divvying it up anyway you want.

LEAN OVER 220.5 (-110).

The Over has hit in 3 of Denver’s last 4 wins against the Thunder, including the regular season, and has hit in 5 of Denver’s last 7 games of these playoffs.

Denver’s best chance to win this game is to make this an offensive battle in which its starting 5 will have more success than OKC’s starting 5, especially with shooting the ball, so the Over will hit here.

This is a lean because the Thunder are so dominant defensively and because they don’t have many players that are a true threat offensively.

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