That flew by, didn’t it?
It seems like yesterday that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder were hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy after an NBA Finals Game 7 that featured Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton suffering a devastating Achilles injury. But that was four months ago, and a lot has happened since then.
Here are The Athletic’s highlights from the NBA offseason and preseason, including predictions, previews, deep dives and so much more. Consider it a cheat sheet to prepare for the NBA’s return.
What happened this summer?
A lot! But here are a few highlights:
How to watch this season
For the first time in more than two decades, the NBA has new broadcast partners. Two subscription services, Prime Video and Peacock, are in, replacing TNT. NBC is also an option, in addition to ESPN/ABC.
All that change might be confusing (and unfortunately cost you a little more money). You can find more details about that here, but here’s how the national TV rotation looks:
Sunday* — ABC/ESPN and NBC/Peacock
Monday — Peacock
Tuesday — NBC/Peacock
Wednesday — ESPN
Thursday* — Prime Video
Friday — Prime Video and ESPN*
Saturday* — ABC/ESPN and Prime Video
* starts midseason
The Christmas Day slate, a standard highlight of the annual NBA schedule, is as follows: (All games are on ESPN/ABC, and all times are Eastern)
Cavaliers at Knicks, noon
Spurs at Oklahoma City, 2:30 p.m.
Rockets at Lakers, 5 p.m.
Mavericks at Warriors, 8 p.m.
Timberwolves at Nuggets, 10:30 p.m.
And of course, the season opens Oct. 21 on NBC and Peacock. The Rockets visit the defending champion Thunder at 7:30 p.m., followed by the Warriors visiting the Lakers at 10 p.m.
You can watch in-market and nationally televised NBA games on Fubo (Stream Free Now). Out-of-market viewers can stream regional games with NBA League Pass.
Key storylines
Earlier this month, Fred Katz took stock of the upcoming season and singled out some storylines that caught his eye across the league, for one reason or another. Some of the notable ones:
Boston’s bunch
On paper, the Celtics aren’t what they used to be. After Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles during the playoffs, Boston focused on cleaning up its books and shedding salary by trading Kristaps Porziņģis to the Hawks and Jrue Holiday to the Trail Blazers. Al Horford also left for Golden State. What does that mean for the Celtics’ title chances in what many people are calling a “gap year”?
Cavaliers’ core
Simply put, the Cavs are expensive. According to Spotrac, entering the season, they are the only team above the second-apron payroll threshold of $207.8 million, which severely restricts how Cleveland can go about building its roster. The Cavs are locked into their core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, a group that has yet to make the conference finals together. Will that change in 2025-26?
Rockets’ roles
Houston suffered a major blow before preseason even began, with NBA champion Fred VanVleet tearing his ACL during a team minicamp in The Bahamas. As mentioned earlier, the Rockets now have Durant, but what they don’t have is a natural fit to replace VanVleet’s playmaking and veteran leadership. Will that be Amen Thompson? Could it be former No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard? Will Durant just do it all at age 37? Time will tell.
Denver’s depth
The Nuggets pushed the eventual champion Thunder to seven games during last season’s Western Conference semifinals. Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray were two of seven players to average at least 40 minutes per game in last season’s playoffs, and they were the only two of that group to play more than eight playoff games (14 each, with two seven-game series).
This offseason, Denver added what it hopes is a reliable backup center in Jonas Valančiūnas, the versatile Bruce Brown (who was part of their 2023 title team) and Tim Hardaway Jr., who’s never been afraid to let it fly from deep. Will those reinforcements, in addition to swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson, be enough to get Denver back on top?
More storylines to watch: Eastern Conference | Western Conference
Hollinger’s projections
The Athletic’s front-office insider has spent more than two decades previewing NBA seasons, dating to the original “Pro Basketball Prospectus” release in 2002. Here’s how he projects each team to finish in the regular season.
First, his detailed analysis: East’s Bottom 7 | East’s Top 8 | West’s Bottom 7 | East’s Top 8
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (59-23)
2. Orlando Magic (52-30)
T-3. New York Knicks (49-33)
T-3. Atlanta Hawks (49-33)
5. Detroit Pistons (45-37)
6. Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)
T-7. Miami Heat (39-43)
T-7. Toronto Raptors (39-43)
9. Chicago Bulls (38-44)
10. Philadelphia 76ers (37-45)
11. Boston Celtics (36-46)
12. Indiana Pacers (31-51)
13. Brooklyn Nets (26-56)
14. Charlotte Hornets (25-57)
15. Washington Wizards (16-66)
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (66-16)
2. LA Clippers (54-28)
3. Golden State Warriors (51-31)
4. Denver Nuggets (50-32)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
6. Los Angeles Lakers (47-35)
7. San Antonio Spurs (46-36)
8. Houston Rockets (45-37)
9. Dallas Mavericks (41-41)
10. Memphis Grizzlies (39-43)
11. Sacramento Kings (36-46)
12. Phoenix Suns (35-47)
13. New Orleans Pelicans (32-50)
14. Portland Trail Blazers (31-51)
15. Utah Jazz (23-59)
More previews!
For the past three weeks in The Bounce, The Athletic’s free daily NBA newsletter, Zach Harper has been delivering his own outlook on the offseason that just passed and the season that lies ahead. Here’s how he sees things in each conference, listed in order from worst to first. (And if you don’t subscribe to The Bounce, sign up here to get your daily dose of The Athletic in your email.)
(Note: Some previews may not account for preseason transactions, but you get the idea!)
Eastern Conference
Washington Wizards
Expectations for this season: The Wizards are going to be terrible, but they’ll be fun and terrible. And that’s by design. This team has eight players who are 22 or younger in the rotation. If rookie Tre Johnson can be a knockdown shooter and we see big improvements from Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr, then structure will form on the court to give a glimpse of their future.
Brooklyn Nets
Expectation for this season: I do think the Nets could win 25 games or so, much like last season. I doubt they embrace the tank right away, and I think Michael Porter Jr. could show some things before defenses adjust to what the Nets are doing. But this season will mostly be about seeing what the five rookies can do.
Charlotte Hornets
Expectation for this season: They have to be low, and some of that is injury expectations. A lot of that is that the roster isn’t very good. It’s young and in need of development. That rarely leads to victories. Maybe Kon Knueppel will be a steady piece for them (our draft experts love the fit). Maybe their backcourt will light it up. But do the Hornets have any real defense?
Toronto Raptors
Expectation for this season: They’re probably in the neighborhood of 37 wins. That should be enough to give them a shot at the Play-In, and from there, they can absolutely earn the No. 8 seed. They can’t barely get to 30 wins again, though.
Chicago Bulls
Expectation for this season: I’m not confident the Bulls will send away their veterans, so I’d expect them to compete for a Play-In spot most of the season. They’ll be in the mix with Toronto, Indiana and Miami. But Chicago probably falls short with the East being a little compacted for those final spots.
Philadelphia 76ers
Expectation for this season: They’re low, and they should be low. That doesn’t say anything about the accumulation of talent on this roster. If they’re healthy for most of the season and postseason, they could make a deep run in the East. I just don’t know how you expect that.
Miami Heat
Expectation for this season: This should be a 40-win season for the Heat. That likely means a Play-In Tournament appearance, and maybe they can create a better fate for themselves in the first round. But this team isn’t good enough to shock the world like we’ve seen in the past.
Indiana Pacers
Expectation for this season: This team is going to be better than people assume. They won’t approach what they did the last two years, but this team should still be in the Play-In Tournament. And getting through that and causing some panic for a top seed is still very realistic.
Atlanta Hawks
Expectation for this season: I’m being cautiously cautious with the Hawks. The talent and coaching are there. The East is weaker. There is zero reason for them to be in the Play-In Tournament again. They have to finish in the top six. Their history shows that might be tough to assume, though.
Boston Celtics
Expectation for this season: This team is way better than most assume. Their style of play on random nights in the regular season is really difficult to handle. I think the Celtics have a good shot at remaining in the top six before a quick playoff exit.
Milwaukee Bucks
Expectation for this season: This Bucks team is better than people assume. If you can make games ugly on defense and leave it up to Giannis Antetokounmpo to bully everybody on offense with shooters surrounding him, there’s a winning formula. At least for regular-season games. It’ll take him being Superman in the playoffs for it to work. At least Thanasis is back.
Detroit Pistons
Expectation for this season: The Pistons should be a top-four team in the East and, from there, give themselves a great chance at making the second round. I don’t really think they can go beyond that, unless Ausar Thompson really gets going, but this is a fun team that could approach 50 wins.
Orlando Magic
Expectation for this season: This should be the No. 3 seed in the East. Barring injuries, the Magic are expected to be ahead of everybody not named Cleveland and New York. Anything short of a second-round appearance will be a failure. But whether they can get through to the conference finals will depend on how much their offense grows.
New York Knicks
Expectation for this season: I don’t know if the Knicks can beat whoever comes out of the West, but they should win the East. A healthy Knicks team is the best one left standing, as of right now. If they buy into Mike Brown’s teachings, they’ll be the standard in the East.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Expectation for this season: Much like the Knicks, I don’t know if Cleveland can beat whichever contender comes out of the West. But winning the East has to be the expectation. If that doesn’t happen, you have to wonder if the Cavaliers make some big roster changes.
Western Conference
Utah Jazz
Expectation for this season: They’re extremely low. This is not a team ready to win consistently, even if Lauri Markkanen is healthy and not sitting for tanking reasons. If this team wins around 20 games and we see rookie Ace Bailey as a future star and a couple of other young players take a big step forward, that will be positive for Jazz fans.
New Orleans Pelicans
Expectation for this season: I’d love to see them get back to that 49-win team we saw two years ago, but I don’t know if their health will permit it. Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray (still coming back from the Achilles rupture), Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones missed a combined 194 games last season. The Pelicans are capable of being good, and they can’t afford to tank either. They owe their unprotected draft pick to the Hawks.
Phoenix Suns
Expectation for this season: I know this is a different team and coach and year, but it’s hard for me to divorce myself from the Suns being 3-17 without Durant last season. Any kind of injury to Booker absolutely cooks this team, and he’s missed 14 or more games in the three years before last season. But we know Ishbia likes predictions!
Sacramento Kings
Expectation for this season: The Kings are likely jumbled in the back end of the West. They’re probably around 38-42 wins, and it might come down to tiebreakers to determine positioning.
Portland Trail Blazers
Expectation for this season: I do believe this team should and will compete for a Play-In spot. I don’t think they get it, but this should be around 40 wins. They need Henderson to take a leap. They need Sharpe to take a leap. And Yang flashing some greatness as the big man prospect would be awesome.
San Antonio Spurs
Expectation for this season: This team should absolutely be in the Play-In Tournament and have a great shot to earn a playoff seed. There is still a lot of youth on the roster with Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper (and their wings), but the Spurs have a lot they can do here. Only a Victor Wembanyama injury would keep the Spurs from being in the mix.
Dallas Mavericks
Expectation for this season: This will mostly be a good season for the Mavs. How far they can go is entirely dependent on the health of Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (when he comes back from the ACL tear). Cooper Flagg is going to be a lot of fun and an X-factor for them. But there’s so much pressure to keep this team on the court. I’d guess the Play-In Tournament and earning one of the seeds is their most realistic finish.
Memphis Grizzlies
Expectation for this season: This is probably a Play-In Tournament team again, and from there, we’ll see if they can make it through. The Grizzlies have been resilient in this era, but we’ll have to see if their new coach has the same effect Taylor Jenkins had for resilience. Pushing a first-round opponent would be a great sign of things to come.
LA Clippers
Expectation for this season: I think the Clippers win 50 games again, are in a battle to get into the top six of the Western Conference with tiebreakers being complicated and then probably make a second-round run depending on the matchup. That’s assuming the league’s cap-circumvention investigation doesn’t result in a massive punishment that costs them Kawhi Leonard. This team would be a lot of fun to see healthy in the postseason.
Golden State Warriors
Expectation for this season: We saw how great the Warriors were in the regular season with Jimmy Butler. I’d expect a lot of that again, although injuries could slow things down. They should lock up a top-six spot in the West if healthy, and then we’ll see.
Los Angeles Lakers
Expectation for this season: I don’t see why the Lakers can’t win 50 games again and put themselves firmly in the top six for the playoffs. From there, they have to get the correct matchup to even get out of the first round.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Expectation for this season: I expect Minnesota to finish third or fourth in the West. The Wolves will win over 50 games, and we’ll see if Anthony Edwards’ offseason has yielded a player who simply can’t be denied for 100 games instead of 82. I wouldn’t be shocked if they’re in the conference finals for a third straight year.
Houston Rockets
Expectation for this season: The goal is 55-plus wins, a top-three seed and a deep playoff run. And it’s a very attainable goal. The biggest question will be about Kevin Durant remaining healthy and available. Even without Fred VanVleet, this team can definitely compete for the West title.
Denver Nuggets
Expectation for this season: Even with OKC in the West, it should be championship or bust for Denver. Michael Malone got blamed despite the issues with the roster. Now David Adelman has to keep it together and hope for the best. A championship has to be the only goal.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Expectation for this season: The only goal is the championship and becoming the first team since Golden State in 2017 and 2018 to repeat. It’s a pretty incredible expectation for a team in a conference with Denver and Houston.
In Case You Missed It…
A few more stories from recent months worth diving into: