Another NBA season has arrived, and with it, one of my favorite annual exercises: 10 bold predictions for the Thunder.

This time last year, I predicted the Thunder to have its best net rating in team history. To be the best Thunder team ever. Nailed it! 

My next nine predictions were all bricks, but no need to dwell on that. 

It’s a new year. Zero and zero, as Mark Daigneault says. 

My general rule for bold predictions: There’s less than a 50/50 chance of them actually happening. In some cases, way less. So no, I’m not taking my bold predictions to the bank, but I directionally believe in all of them. 

Without further ado: 

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1. Thunder repeats as champs 

Not bold enough for you? I get that. The Thunder (+200) is the heavy favorite to win the NBA title, per FanDuel. 

But +200 has an implied probability of 33%, which means it’s twice as likely that the Thunder won’t win the title. 

Championship odds, according to FanDuel: 

Thunder: +200Nuggets: +700 Cavaliers: +700Knicks: +1100Clippers: +1800Rockets: +1800 

I have the Thunder going 64-18, beating the Nuggets in the West Finals and the Knicks in the NBA Finals. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder becomes the NBA’s first repeat champ since the 2016-17 and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors. 

2. Chet Holmgren makes second-team All-NBA

That’s right. Not just All-NBA. Second-team All-NBA for Chet Holmgren. 

I’m all-in on a Holmgren breakout. Remember the first nine games of last season before Holmgren broke his hip? He had more juice on the offensive end. More lift to his shot. More explosiveness. That version of Holmgren never returned — due to the whole broken hip thing — but I’m betting it comes back this season. 

Holmgren, even at less-than-full health, was a defensive terror in the playoffs. His rim deterrence is elite. Maybe the best in the league this side of Victor Wembenyama. 

If Holmgren stays healthy and meets the 65-game minimum (that’s a huge if), he’ll make an All-NBA team. Second-team All-NBA. 

3. Three Thunder players average 20-plus points 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, last year’s scoring champ, is a shoe-in for 30 points per game. Jalen Williams, still recovering from offseason wrist surgery, can match the 21.6 points he averaged a season ago. 

Which brings us to Holmgren. He’s averaged 16.1 points per game in his career. Getting to 20 would be a huge leap, but a huge leap is exactly what I’m predicting. 

Twenty-three teams in NBA history had three 20-plus-point scorers in the same season. The last were the 2023-24 Pelicans with Zion Williamson (22.9), Brandon Ingram (20.8) and CJ McCollum (20.0). 

The 2019-20 Thunder came sort of close. Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schroder and Danilo Gallinari all averaged between 18.7 and 19.0 points per game. 

4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander DOES NOT lead the NBA in drives per game

SGA has led the NBA in drives per game in each of the last five(!) seasons. 

The last player not named SGA to lead the NBA in drives? Russell Westbrook in 2019-20 as a Rocket. 

That was a long time ago. Gilgeous-Alexander was a first-year Thunder. Westbrook is about to play for his fifth team since then. 

But this is the year SGA relinquishes the crown that maybe no one but me will track. 

His drives per game have been on a gradual decline. 

2020-21: 25.22021-22: 23.92022-23: 23.92023-24: 23.32024-25: 20.6

Knicks guard Jalen Brunson was second in drives per game last season with 17.8, so SGA still has some serious ground to cede. 

This is a bet on the Thunder playing a more improvisational brand of offense. Less dribbling, more passing. 

To state the obvious, the way SGA plays has clearly worked. He just turned in one of the best seasons by a guard in NBA history. I just think the Thunder is going to use the regular season to experiment and perhaps evolve offensively. 

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5. Ajay Mitchell gets a Most Improved Player vote(s)

I’m one of those people who don’t think second-year players should be considered for the Most Improved award — sophomores only have a one-season sample on which to improve — but here’s guessing at least one voter has Thunder sophomore Ajay Mitchell on their ballot. 

A turf toe injury limited Mitchell to 36 games last season. He averaged 6.5 points, 1.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 0.7 steals. He shot 50% from the field and 38% from 3-point range. 

The Belgian-born guard was waaaayyy too good for summer league, which is exactly what you want to see from a second-year player. 

Mitchell isn’t great at anything but he’s solid at just about everything. The 23-year-old plays a smooth game and has a mature approach. Just the kind of steadying hand the Thunder could use off the bench. 

The Thunder drafted two guards in 2024: Nikola Topic in the lottery and Mitchell in the second round. We haven’t seen Topic yet, but I’ve loved what little I’ve seen of Mitchell. 

6. Brooks Barnhizer gets elevated to standard contract 

I’m breaking my own rule here. This is a layup. 

Barnhizer, a rangy wing out of Northwestern, is one of three Thunders on a two-way contract along with Branden Carlson and Chris Youngblood. 

There’s not a full-time roster spot open now, but there will be by the trade deadline. Ousmane Dieng might have a future in the NBA, but it won’t be in OKC. Dieng is likely to be moved sometime this season, probably for a second-round pick, and Barnhizer will get elevated into Dieng’s spot. 

Barnhizer is as Thundery as they come. A try-hard in the mold of Kenrich Williams, Lu Dort and Alex Caruso. Will he ever become a consistent 3-point shooter? No clue. But he can defend. 

7. Aaron Wiggins leads the Thunder in games played

Wiggins tied SGA for the team lead in games played last season with 76. I expect him to be right back at the top. 

The former second-round pick has had a remarkable career arc. He was the fourth-leading scorer on a championship team. 

Wiggins is the ultimate innings eater. You need that over the course of a long regular season. 

8. Cason Wallace gets more starts than Isaiah Hartenstein 

Which is to say I think the Thunder’s most-used starting lineup will be SGA/Dort/Wallace/J-Dub/Chet. 

We saw Mark Daigneault go with that group in the first three games of the NBA Finals before flipping back to the double-big lineup with Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. 

Hartenstein will still get spot starts, but I think the Thunder is at its best with Holmgren as the lone big on the floor. At least to start games. 

9. SGA finishes second in MVP race

The Thunder finished 18 games better than the Nuggets last season. 

I think that was the tiebreaker, and rightly so, that put SGA over the top in the MVP race. 

The Thunder will be a little worse record-wise, the Nuggets will be a little better and the pendulum will swing back to the Serbian. 

This will be SGA’s third consecutive season in which he’ll finish top two in the MVP race. His fourth consecutive season as a top-five finisher. 

10. Isaiah Hartenstein makes a 3-pointer

Let’s preface this: Hartenstein, the most notable free agent signee in Thunder history, was worth every penny of his $30 million deal. 

But the preseason hype that he was going to evolve into a 3-point shooting center was crazy then and even crazier now. 

Hartenstein is a wonderful offensive facilitator, but a shooter he is not. 

He went 0 of 19 from behind the arc last season. He threatened Tom Garrick’s record for 3-point futility. 

Garrick, the former Clippers guard, went 0 of 22 from 3 in the 1990-91 season. He has the record for most 3-point attempts in a season without a make. Magic Johnson went 0 of 21 from 3 in 1982-83. 

Hartenstein tied for the third-worst mark. He and former Bulls guard Gene Banks went 0 of 19 from 3 in a season. 

Do I think Hartenstein should shoot 3s? No. Do I think he’ll luck into one? Yes. 

Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.