The term “contract year” tends to get thrown around a bit loosely. It often gets applied to any player on an expiring contract. It’s actually quite a bit more complex than that. Sometimes it’s a player playing for an extension. Sometimes there are cap-related reasons a player hasn’t been signed, but we all know a new deal is coming. Sometimes it is just as it’s commonly meant: players are unsigned beyond this year and looking to cash in on their next contract.
Today, we’re going to look at five groups of players who are playing for their next contract right now. Whether that be via an extension or a new deal, these 12 players are looking to get paid.
The Unextendibles
Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers
Coby White – Chicago Bulls
Yes, unextendibles isn’t really a word. You’re going to have to grant us some language leeway, because it perfectly describes Austin Reaves and Coby White.
When Reaves and White signed their current contracts, many (this space included) lauded their teams for getting them on such good-value (read: team-friendly) deals. And that’s true. Both Reaves and White have vastly outplayed their current contracts. That’s awesome for the Lakers and Bulls…unless we’re talking extensions.
Even with the improved veteran extension rules allowing teams to sign players for up 140% of their current salary or 140% of the Estimate Average Player Salary, that’s not enough to get Reaves or White to extend. For both players, that would put them in the range of four-year, $87 million contracts. Roughly $22 million AAV is a nice amount, but it’s one that both Reaves and White will easily top as unrestricted free agents this summer.
That’s where things get a little scary for the Lakers and Bulls. Neither Reaves or White has professed any desired to leave the only NBA homes they’ve known. Both Los Angeles and Chicago can pay their free agent guards more than anyone else. But anytime a player is an unrestricted free agent, and there are teams with cap space and needs at that player’s position, it’s a nervous time.
That means that Reaves and White are both looking at putting together big seasons for big paydays, either with their incumbent teams or elsewhere. Reaves is off to an amazing start, while White’s season has been delayed by a calf injury. But combo guards who can play on- and off-ball as primary or secondary creators are in huge demand right now. That means Reaves and White are in line for near-max, if not max, contracts this coming summer.
The Lonely Superstar
Trae Young – Atlanta Hawks
This projects to be a fairly weak free agent class again. Unless LeBron James really hits the open market, Trae Young will be the best free agent available. He’s entering his prime years. Young is productive. He has star power, as he plays a fun and entertaining style. Young even improved as a more competitive defender over the last season or so.
So, why is he hitting free agency instead of extending?
The Hawks and Young faced a “deadline” of a week ago to reach an agreement on an extension. Why was it a “deadline”? Because Young has a player option for 2026-27, he could opt out, which would then make him eligible to extend through June 30. So, there’s still some time here for Atlanta and Young to reach agreement on a new deal.
The challenge is that the Hawks have made big roster changes entering this season. They’ve also committed long-term money to Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Onyeka Okongwu over the last few years. All of those players are on value contracts, which should leave room for Young on a max deal. But maxing out Young will make things tight for the Hawks against the tax, and possibly even the aprons.
With Kristaps Porzingis (more on him later) looking at a new deal too, Atlanta is being a bit cautious with their purse strings. Young presumably wants a maximum contract. The Hawks want to see how he looks with a healthy, rebuilt roster.
Neither Young nor the Hawks are wrong in their desires. The challenge is that if Young hits free agency, there are several teams without a point guard, never mind a superstar point guard, who have cap space this summer. The Hawks may be looking at a max contract to keep Young in Atlanta, whether they give it via an extension or on a new deal in free agency.
One last wrinkle: If the Hawks are forced to give Young a max deal because other teams are offering the same, there’s something else the star guard could agitate for in a new deal: A no-trade clause. Having eight years of service, all of them with Atlanta, makes Young eligible for an NTC. (Note: Young can’t get an NTC via an extension. It can only come for him via a new contract.)
Yes, NTCs are rare. Only LeBron James and Damian Lillard have negotiated NTCs in their deals. Could Young push for one as the item that pushes re-signing with the Hawks over the top? Something to keep an eye on.
The Restricted Free Agents
Jalen Duren – Detroit Pistons
Tari Eason – Houston Rockets
Jaden Ivey – Detroit Pistons
Walker Kessler – Utah Jazz
Bennedict Mathurin – Indiana Pacers
Restricted free agency was really hard on players this past offseason. Josh Giddey, Quentin Grimes, Jonathan Kuminga and Cam Thomas all watched their free agency take until deep into the offseason to resolve. Giddey got a long-term deal, but Kuminga signed a contract with the Warriors holding team control. Grimes and Thomas (more on them later) had to settle for signing their qualifying offers.
Why will next summer be any different for the next crop of restricted free agents?
There are teams with cap space next summer. This past offseason, the Brooklyn Nets were the only real cap space team. Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Milwaukee Bucks cleared cap space for specific targets.
Next summer, at least five or six teams should have meaningful cap space. For Jalen Duren and Walker Kessler, a handful of those teams haven’t found their long-term starting center yet. Tari Eason is a plug-and-play rotation forward that fits anywhere.
Bennedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey are a bit more complicated. Both are seen as score-first guards, not unlike Thomas and Grimes. They both also have big opportunities (when they get healthy) to play roles on teams that have playoff goals. If Mathurin and Ivey can prove they can do more, while being efficient and driving winning, their next contracts will go way, way up in value.
All five of these players are going to be restricted free agents. The big question: Will one of the cap space teams want to make their current teams sweat out an offer sheet? Or do their current teams try to get ahead of it by moving the restricted free agency issues to another team via an in-season trade?
The Talented But Injury-Prone Big Men
Kristaps Porzingis – Atlanta Hawks
Mitchell Robinson – New York Knicks
These big men are in similar spots, despite being very different players on offense. Kristaps Porzingis is one of the elite stretch-bigs in the league while solid working against mismatches, while Mitchell Robinson is an elite lob threat, and one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. On defense both are terrific rim protectors, and solid on the glass.
Unfortunately, they also have a shared long injury history. And both play for teams that have large amounts of guaranteed salary committed already, with other contract situations looming.
If the Hawks or Knicks could trust that Porzingis or Robinson would stay healthy and play in 65-70 games, extensions would probably already be done. But given that the Knicks are dancing around the second apron, with a new deal for Karl-Anthony Towns due soon, they aren’t locking into a new deal for Robinson right now.
The Hawks are less expensive than the Knicks, but they aren’t historically a team that will go deep into the tax like New York is. And they’ve got Trae Young due for a new contract, as we covered above.
Porzingis and Robinson will both be productive when they’re healthy. We know this from their history. If they could make it through this season healthy, that would go a long way towards earning them a new, big deal.
One more note: Because Porzingis and Robinson are on expiring deals, they are both extension-eligible through June 30. If things are going great when we get near the end of the season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to still see an extension get done before free agency opens.
The Believe In Themselves Guards
Quentin Grimes – Philadelphia 76ers
Cam Thomas – Brooklyn Nets
Normally, we’d say these guys “bet on themselves” by signing their qualifying offers. Given the current environment, we’re going with these guys believe in themselves!
Grimes and Thomas both wanted long-term deals from the Sixers and Nets, respectively. They both got offers, but neither was anywhere close to a value commensurate with the Grimes’ and Thomas’ abilities.
The 76ers have some luxury tax and apron issues that they have to be cautious of moving forward. They’ve also got a deep guard group, as Tyrese Maxey is an established All-Star-level player, and V.J. Edgecombe and Jared McCain are exciting young players. Those factors left Grimes with an offer that didn’t even reach the equivalent of the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount.
Thomas was in an even rougher spot. His offers were limited to two-year deals worth roughly the NTMLE amount, but the second season would have included a team option. That’s great for the Nets roster flexibility, who have drafted several young guards, but it’s not so great for Thomas.
That leaves both Grimes and Thomas proving they can be more than just score-first guards piling up points on bad teams. Showing a more well-rounded game, and an ability to play off-ball more, will help both veteran guards lift their value going into the offseason. It still feels like their futures may lie outside Philadelphia and Brooklyn, possibly even by a trade.
One last note when it comes to trades for Grimes and Thomas: Because both signed their qualifying offers, they have no-trade clauses for this year, because they lose their Bird rights if they get traded. That could impact the acquiring team’s ability to re-sign either player. That makes things a bit tricky for them on the trade market. But if things hit a point where they prefer a fresh start, Grimes or Thomas could approve a trade to a new destination.