The New Orleans Pelicans (1-6) and Dallas Mavericks (2-5) meet Wednesday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Pelicans vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2024-25 season series: Dallas won 3-1
New Orleans picked up its first win of the season with a 116-112 victory over the Charlotte Hornets Tuesday, covering as a 2.5-point favorite with the Under (229.5) hitting. F Trey Murphy III led the Pelicans with 21 points, and 7 of his teammates also finished in double figures. The Pelicans committed 13 turnovers compared to the Hornets’ 20, which led to a 25-11 edge in fast-break points despite New Orleans being outrebounded.
Dallas lost 110-102 to the Houston Rockets Monday, covering as a 12.5-point underdog with the Under (225.5) cashing. The Mavs shot just 9-for-36 (25%) from deep and were dominated 54-40 on the glass. Dallas held the Rockets — who lead the NBA in offensive rating — to under 30 points in 3 of 4 quarters but didn’t have enough offensively to pull off the upset.
Pelicans at Mavericks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:29 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Pelicans +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Mavericks -300 (bet $300 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Pelicans +7.5 (-110) | Mavericks -7.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Pelicans at Mavericks key injuries
Pelicans
(Not yet submitted — below was for Tuesday’s game)
C Yves Missi (illness) outG Dejounte Murray (Achilles) outF Zion Williamson (hamstring) out
Mavericks
F Anthony Davis (calf) outG Dante Exum (knee) outG Kyrie Irving (knee) outC Dereck Lively II (knee) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Pelicans at Mavericks picks and predictionsPrediction
Pelicans 106, Mavericks 101
PASS.
Neither of these teams is good, and both are very injured, so correctly predicting the winner of this matchup is not worth the risk. I do lean toward the Pelicans as +240 underdogs, but they are not worth the risk of betting on after just earning their first win of the season. Pass here and bet the spread and/or total instead.
BET PELICANS +7.5 (-110).
With their injuries, the Mavericks are missing their 2 best back-end defenders and 2 key playmakers, so this team will likely continue to look as bad as it has all season. Dallas’ offense has been dreadful — its offensive rating of 103.6 is easily the worst in the NBA — so as long as the Pelicans can convert their open looks and score in transition as they did against Charlotte, covering here shouldn’t be a problem.
Be aware, however, that there’s still some risk, as the Pelicans have been poor on both ends of the floor and have struggled to cover even against weak opponents to start the season.
BET UNDER 227.5 (-115).
Dallas has been awful offensively, but its defense has stepped up lately and is starting to resemble the stout unit expected entering the season. The Mavericks’ 111.3 defensive rating ranks among the top 8 in the NBA. On the other side, New Orleans’ offense has been nearly as bad as Dallas’, with a 106.6 offensive rating that ranks third-worst in the league.
Given that, along with the fact that the Under is 3-1 in Dallas’ last 4 games and has hit in back-to-back home contests for New Orleans, the Under is easily the safest play for this matchup.
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