The New York Knicks will attempt to close out a playoff series at home for the first time since the 1999 postseason when they take on the Detroit Pistons at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. New York won Games 3 and 4 in Detroit to put itself on the verge of winning a first-round postseason series for the third consecutive season.

The last two wins for the Knicks were by a combined three points, and the series has been highly competitive and very physical to this point. Game 3 featured a controversial ending, when Tim Hardaway Jr. took a three-point shot and drew some contact from Josh Hart that was not whistled by the officials.

Now the Pistons will try to prevent elimination, and their one win in this series was at MSG in Game 2. This has been one of the most tightly contested first-round series in the NBA playoffs and Game 5 should be quite entertaining and potentially close, too.

Pistons vs. Knicks predictions and best bets

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Recommending the Pistons to cover the spread doesn’t indicate that New York will not win Game 5. But I have to back Detroit to cover when it is facing elimination and the previous games were decided by two points and one point.

Keep in mind that the Pistons have won three of their last four games at MSG, all this season. The Knicks’ home-court advantage always gets offset because opposing teams look to perform at their highest levels when playing on the New York City stage.

Game 5 might come down to the end as the previous two games did, and only Game 1 finished with more than a six-point edge for the winner. Once again when it matters most, the final result may ride on Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns or Cade Cunningham. Or the Pistons could put their fate into the hands of one of their top complementary options such as Tobias Harris or Malik Beasley.

From an offensive perspective, New York’s starting five can go deeper with possible key scorers such as OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges. Outside of Cunningham, the Pistons cannot rely on consistency from any other source. But if someone like Dennis Schroder or Hardaway gets hot, the game should stay tight. It may just be a matter of which of Cunningham’s teammates catches fire on Tuesday.

In terms of the Over/Under, the teams have finished past tonight’s projected total in every odd-numbered game so far in the series. So we’ll stick with that trend for Game 5. Important hoops are going to be earned in this matchup, and it is less likely that either team is going to run away on offense.

Even though it might not be easy to pile up strong scoring statistics for many players in this game, Brunson has continued to function as an unstoppable force. He was named the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year and demonstrated that form again in Game 5, when he returned from an apparent injury to help New York squeeze out the victory.

In the first round, Brunson is averaging 33.3 points per game. He has not scored less than 30 points in any of the four games. With an opportunity to possibly end the series, he is going to get his numbers again. Brunson is the most reliable player to wager on in this series.

The Over/Under for points for Karl-Anthony Towns is 23.5 at -130. He is also a good wagering target after scoring 58 points in the two games at Detroit.

Pistons vs. Knicks moneyline odds analysisWhy New York could win as the favorite

Best Odds: -225 at bet365

Brunson scored 32 points in Game 2 on 50.0 percent shooting from the field, and he also totaled 11 assists, often forcing the Detroit defense to pay when it converged on him. The New York star scored 15 points in the fourth quarter. He has logged 30-plus points and 10-plus assists in a playoff game for the fifth time in his career. He ranks first in those types of performances in Knicks franchise history.

Towns finished with 27 points, making a clutch fadeaway and three-pointer late in the game. He came on strong after being held to 10 points in the Game 2 loss. In Game 3, “KAT” scored 31 points, becoming the first New York center since Patrick Ewing in 1997 to post 30 points in a postseason game.

In the two games at Detroit, Hart collected 21 rebounds. Anunoby was limited to eight points in Game 4, but he scored 22-plus points in two of the first three games. Bridges scored 19-plus points in Games 2 and 3. Getting significant offensive contributions from Anunoby and Bridges can certainly help push the Knicks to a Game 5 win. Anunoby has held Cunningham to 36.4 percent in the series when guarding him.

New York overcame a 14-point third quarter to pull out the Game 4 win. The Knicks scored 30 in the fourth quarter. Detroit may come out strong in Game 5, and if New York maintains pace and stay even after an initial surge from the Pistons, a victory can be within reach, as the Knicks are more battle-tested down the stretch.

Why Detroit could win as the underdog

Best Odds: +185 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Cunningham is averaging 28.3 points, 8.6 assists and 6.9 rebounds in eight games against the Knicks this season, including the playoffs and regular season. He has put up 20-plus points in every game and notched 30-plus points three times. At MSG this season, the Pistons standout is averaging 29.8 points, 8.5 assists and 7.5 rebounds in four games.

Beasley scored 20-plus points three times against New York this season with an average of 14.6 points on 41.5 field goal shooting and 40.9 percent three-point shooting in seven matchups. Beasley shot just 22.2 percent from three-point range in the last three games, and a better outing from deep in Game 5 can help boost the Pistons to a win.

Harris is averaging 14.6 points and 7.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists in eight games vs. New York this season on 45.9% shooting from the field and 41.4 percent from three-point range. He can be another essential performer for the Pistons in Game 5.

In Game 4, Detroit outscored the Knicks in Points in the Paint, 48-32. If the Pistons continue to attack New York’s defensive shortcomings down low, there will be a good chance for a Game 5 win. They also registered nine blocked shots in Game 4 to New York’s three.