Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Hawks at Kings on Wednesday.

Extension negotiations always produce some of the NBA’s most intriguing storylines, and this summer, it was the Atlanta Hawks’ offseason negotiations with point guard Trae Young that made headlines. Unlike the man he was traded for on draft night, Luka Dončić, Young did not reach an agreement with Atlanta despite being a four-time All-Star and 2021-22 All-NBA honoree.

Now, Young is out for at least the next month with a sprained MCL, and without him, the Hawks are 5-2, raising even more questions about Young’s future with the franchise. It’ll look to keep the good times rolling tonight with a 10 p.m. ET road clash against one of the West’s bottom feeders, the Sacramento Kings.

Atlanta is a 3.5-point road favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-166 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 234.5. The Kings are +140 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.

Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings preview, prediction

The Hawks are coming off of back-to-back wins against the Los Angeles teams, pulling out a 20-point win at home over the Lakers and beating the Clippers by three at the Intuit Dome two nights later to improve to 6-4. Lots has gone wrong for an Atlanta team expected to be impressive, between Young’s injury and Kristaps Porziņġis’ poor shooting, but if the season ended today, the Hawks would be in the Play-In Tournament, which isn’t a terrible result. Jalen Johnson has continued to play at a high level, and Dyson Daniels leads the league in steals again. Atlanta also got a pair of strong games from Vit Krejci against the LA teams.

Sacramento, meanwhile, has been an unmitigated disaster. The Kings have lost three straight games by 14 or more points, and while they played tough opponents — the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Denver Nuggets — there’s no moral victory in an uncompetitive loss. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan have been as solid as ever offensively, with each averaging at least 20 points per game on efficient shooting, and Russell Westbrook has impressed, but offseason acquisition Dennis Schröder and three-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis have both shot the ball poorly.

Hawks at Kings pick, best bet

In the four games that Young started and finished, the Hawks ranked just 24th in defensive rating, but in the seven games since, Atlanta has had the fifth-best defense in basketball. The Hawks have been 15.8 points per 100 possessions better on that side of the ball with Young off the court this season, and their offense has survived without him thanks to a more egalitarian approach. Across the last seven games, Johnson, Daniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have each averaged at least 65 touches per game, and Alexander-Walker and Johnson have both ranked above the median in points per touch among the 112 players with at least 50 per game in that span. Atlanta has also gone from ninth to sixth in assists per game since Young’s injury, as well as 28th to 14th in rebounds.

It’s possible that the Hawks are due for some regression, given that they’ve drained wide-open threes at the league’s ninth-highest rate since Young’s injury after ranking near the bottom of the league in that stat last season, and they haven’t done a great job generating such shots. The latter could change tonight, since Sacramento has allowed the 11th-most wide-open threes and have gotten lucky that opponents have only converted at the fourth-lowest rate. Atlanta has also produced the fifth-most shots in the restricted area while converting at the 12th-highest clip is extremely promising and should come in handy against a Kings team that has allowed the eighth-highest percentage at the rim this season, although it has been excellent at preventing such attempts in the first place.

Sacramento will need to dominate the offensive glass and provide itself plenty of opportunities to score against a team that has allowed the lowest shooting percentage, both in the restricted area and overall, across the last seven games. The issue is that, despite having the league’s leading rebounder for the fourth straight season in Sabonis and the best rebounding guard of all time in Westbrook, the Kings rank second-to-last in boards, ninth-to-last in second-chance points scored, and 10th-to-last in second-chance points allowed. On the plus side, Sacramento is a disciplined team that ranks in the top five in both turnovers and fouls per game, but it also hasn’t drawn many fouls or recorded many steals. Furthermore, while the Kings could stand to benefit offensively from some shooting luck, they’ve produced an unhealthy shot diet featuring the second-fewest wide-open threes per game, the eighth-fewest shots at the rim, and the most midrange jumpers. They have some midrange aces in DeRozan and LaVine, but it’s not a recipe for success.

As long as Porziņġis is healthy, the Hawks should continue to lock up the interior and grab enough rebounds, and Sacramento’s inefficient shot diet will eventually come back to bite it. The Kings have scored fewer than 116 points five times this season, including in two of their last three games.

Best bet: Sacramento Kings U115.5 Points (-110)