“Oh my God, it’s happening. Everyone stay calm!! STAY F***ING CALM!!!” – Michael Scott, The Office
It’s only been two weeks, but for programs across the country — and three CAA teams, in particular — there might be reason to heed the word of the “World’s Best Boss.” Whether it’s been injuries, underperformance, coaching neglect, or some combination of the three, these squads haven’t quite met their preseason expectations.
I’ll give each team a panic rating, with 10 being hair-on-fire.
Northeastern Huskies (2-2)
At first glance, you might wonder what the Huskies are doing here.
Northeastern’s 2-2 record doesn’t scream panic, and its two wins are impressive road victories over Colgate and Harvard. Its two losses include a one-point overtime loss to BU and a loss to America East favorite Vermont in a game that it consistently led until a 21-3 UVM run put them in the dirt. Forwards Youri Fritz and Xander Alarie have stepped up in a big way, shoring up a frontcourt that looked like a massive question mark heading into the season.
Well… moments before halftime in their Veterans Day win over Harvard, star guard LA Pratt took a weird step and came up gimpy, hobbling to the bench. He didn’t return, and even though his spirits looked high on the bench, you could feel the worry in and around the team surrounding the health of their best player.
On Saturday, those worries came to fruition. Tests showed Pratt has a broken foot, and he is out for the season. Through two and a half games, Pratt had served as Northeastern’s focal point, averaging nearly 20 points per game entering Saturday’s contest.
Now, his season is over, and the Huskies — who oriented this season around Pratt at the point — are rudderless. It’s a devastating blow not only for Northeastern, but for Pratt, who was a preseason All-CAA Second-Teamer and seemed primed for a breakout year.
“Obviously, very disappointed for [LA],” Northeastern head coach Bill Coen said after Saturday’s loss against Vermont. “I don’t think in my 20 years, there’s been a player that worked harder in the offseason… he was off to a great start, and I thought he was going to have a great year. He’s a fabulous kid, and he’ll bounce back and be even stronger.”
With Pratt out, Northeastern will turn to sophomore guard Luca Soroa Schaller, junior guard JB Frankel and freshman guard Miles Newton to handle the majority of the playmaking duties. None of them approximate the value Pratt can provide, and even as Soroa looked promising in his first start (15 points, six assists) he simply doesn’t have the same gravity that Pratt provides. It’ll be tough sledding for CAA’s northernmost representative unless someone unexpected steps up in a big way.
Charleston’s first three weeks include one DI win, over lowly SC State.
Outside of that, it got pummeled by Liberty, lost in a romp to FAU, and fell by nine to Drake. The latter two came at home, with star transfer Mister Dean present for the Drake game.
The Cougars’ defensive efficiency ranks in the bottom 20% of the country, per KenPom, and while the offense has been good, it hasn’t been good enough to save them. Opponents are getting — and making — whatever shots they want, and Charleston has seemed powerless to stop it.
Glance under the hood, though, and not all is as it seems. For starters, the Cougars just can’t get healthy; between Dean, star transfer Colby Duggan, Clemson transfer Christian Reeves, and Cincinnati transfer Connor Hickman (who’s still waiting on an NCAA waiver), four of Charleston’s most important players have missed time. Additionally, the Cougars have just gotten unlucky. Opponents are shooting a ridiculous 40.6% from beyond the arc, while Charleston is just above 30%. Their defense has struggled, without a doubt, but you’d expect those splits to trend back towards reality as water finds its level.
It’s worth noting that in the immediate future, things might continue to be bleak. The rest of CofC’s non-conference schedule is tough, with matchups against UMass, Belmont, and South Florida before it eases up. It’s conceivable that Chris Mack’s squad could go into conference play under .500, something they almost never do.
Long-term? I still think they’ll be fine. Losing to three of the better mid-major programs in the country in Liberty, FAU, and Drake isn’t reason to sound the alarm, and things should even out. On the court, Middle Tennessee transfer Jlynn Counter has shown enough to indicate being a productive complementary player once they’re healthier, and freshman guard Martin Kalu has done likewise. Seven-foot redshirt sophomore Chol Machot is a terrifying deputy to the already impressive Reeves. Of course, as time ticks by without updates on Duggan or Hickman, things will get hairier, and if the defense continues to hemorrhage points, question marks will start to pop up.
Conference play won’t pose as much competition, though, and Charleston should be healthy by then. The early-season struggles aren’t going to help with an at-large bid, but that wasn’t going to happen anyways. They’ll need to rattle off four or five quick wins in the CAA to ease everyone’s mind, though.
If the first six games are any indication, I might’ve been way too high on Hampton coming into the season.
Its offense has been capital-D dismal. Its defense really hasn’t done anything particularly well. The Pirates are shooting just 24.6% from three against D-I teams, and their offensive efficiency ranks 346th out of 365. Their brightest spot — senior forward Xzavier Long — is averaging a double-double but on just 40% from the floor, and he’s a marginally impactful defender.
It’s worth noting that Hampton did something similar last year, coming out of the gates 2-5 against D-I programs and starting just 3-7 against CAA foes. Ivan Thomas’ Pirates figured it out, though, rattling off two separate five-game win streaks en route to a 17-16 record that nobody really saw coming. That team had oodles of depth, though, and this one can’t put a stake to that same claim, at least not yet.
Nobody has stepped up from a cast of characters that looked ready to do so at the end of last season. Long can’t operate as a one-man hub. Eunique Rink has been invisible, and Etienne Strothers hasn’t lived up to expectations. A bevy of transfers have been categorically meh, with big Tennessee State center Josh Ogundele, USM wing Christian Watson and Hawaii newcomer Kody Williams all failing to make an imprint. There’s talent here, so it’s hard to say whether it’s been simply underwhelming play or poor coaching, but whatever it is, it’s a malaise that’s enveloped the entire team.
Whereas Charleston has a definitive formula for improvement, the best I can say for Hampton is pretty simple: they just have to play better. It starts at the top, with Alcorn State transfer Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt, but it goes for pretty much everybody, with the possible exception of sophomore guard Daniel Johnson, who has been rock-solid. Hampton was able to follow that advice last year, and there’s room to grow this year, but you’d like to see the Pirates find their groove sooner rather than later. Give Thomas’s squad a few more weeks to gel, then start to raise some eyebrows.