The Denver Nuggets (11-3) and Houston Rockets (10-3) are set to face off in an NBA Cup showdown Friday. Tip-off from Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Nuggets vs. Rockets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2024-25 season series: Denver won 2-1
Denver beat the New Orleans Pelicans 125-118 Wednesday, failing to cover as a 10.5-point road favorite as the Over (235) hit. F Peyton Watson scored a career-high 32 points to lead the Nuggets, and C Nikola Jokic added a triple-double with 28 points, 11 boards, and 12 assists. The Nuggets held the Pelicans to just 7-of-34 (20.6%) shooting from deep.
Houston picked up a 114-104 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday while covering as a 1.5-point road favorite, as the Under (232.5) cashed. C Alperen Sengun led both teams with 28 points and 11 rebounds, while 5 other Rockets also finished in double-figures. The Rockets dominated 51-39 on the glass in the win, including 16 offensive rebounds.
Nuggets vs. Rockets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:39 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Rockets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-110) | Rockets -2.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 234.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Nuggets at Rockets key injuries
Nuggets
G Christian Braun (ankle) outF Aaron Gordon (hamstring) probable
Rockets
C Steven Adams (ankle) questionableF Tari Eason (oblique) outF Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) outF Jabari Smith Jr. (knee) questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Nuggets at Rockets picks and predictionsPrediction
Rockets 110, Nuggets 108
LEAN ROCKETS (-140).
Denver has a top-5 offense by the numbers, but they don’t have the defenders to be able to guard F Kevin Durant and Sengun at the same time, while also having to worry about keeping F Amen Thompson in front of them. The Nuggets simply don’t have the defensive infrastructure to make this Houston team consistently uncomfortable offensively.
BET NUGGETS +2.5 (-110).
Jokic is playing like the best player in the world, and his rebounding will be able to slow the offensive rebounding dominance that Houston uses to get so many extra possessions. On the other side, while Houston possesses one of the league’s top defenses, the Rockets will simply have no way of stopping Jokic from scoring whenever and wherever he wants.
Look for this to be a game in which Jokic will score at will because Houston will have premier defenders on everyone else on the court.
LEAN UNDER 234.5 (-105).
Outside of Jokic, Denver will likely struggle to find consistent offense just because this Houston defense is so good. Conversely, a lot of Houston’s offense and especially 3-point success comes from easy looks off of offensive rebounds and points off of turnovers, neither of which will be easy to come by with Jokic on the floor.
This is a lean because these are 2 of the NBA’s top offenses, and because the Over is 3-1 in the last 4 contests for both teams.
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