Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Friday’s Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets NBA Cup matchup.

Two of the premier Western Conference teams will be facing off tonight during the nine-game NBA slate. The Denver Nuggets will travel to face the Houston Rockets as part of the NBA Cup action. These teams are facing off as part of the West Group C, with all five teams in the group holding a 1-1 NBA Cup record. The Nuggets sit at the top of the standings with a +23 point differential, with the Rockets right behind with at +13.

Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Rockets enter as narrow 2.5-point favorites and hold -142 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets hold +120 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 235.5 points.

This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night NBA Cup matchup.

Nuggets at Rockets Preview

The Denver Nuggets are off to an 11-3 start to the season and sit in second place in the Western Conference. Their three losses have surprisingly come at the hands of the Warriors, Trail Blazers, and Bulls, but they enter this matchup having won eight of their last nine. Denver is 9-5 against the spread, and the over has cashed in eight of their 14 games this year.

Nikola Jokic continues to play at an MVP level, averaging 29.1 points and leading the NBA with 13.2 rebounds and 11.1 assists per game. Jamal Murray has gotten off to an excellent start to the season, pitching in 22.5 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.2 rebounds, while Aaron Gordon adds 20.3 points and 6.3 boards. The transition has not been as easy as expected for Cam Johnson, with him shooting just 29.2% from beyond the arc to start the year. Christian Braun has had some similar shooting struggles before his injury, while Peyton Watson, Bruce Brown, Jonas Valanciunas, and Tim Hardaway Jr. round out most of the team’s depth.

Denver leads the league in scoring at 124.6 points per game. They rank second in offensive rating, field-goal percentage, and rebounds per game, but sit at 14th in three-point percentage.

Defensively, the Nuggets allow 113.1 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. They are holding opponents to the worst three-point percentage in the league at 31.2% while ranking 22nd in attempts, third in defensive rating, and fifth in opponents’ field goal percentage.

Julian Strawther has been ruled out for tonight’s matchup due to a back injury. Aaron Gordon is considered probable with a hamstring issue, while Christian Braun will be sidelined for a few more weeks with his ankle injury.

The Houston Rockets enter with a 10-3 record on the season, which is tied for third place in the Western Conference. They are just a half-game behind Denver in the standings. Houston enters this matchup on a five-game winning streak, with their three losses coming against the Thunder, Pistons, and Spurs. The Rockets are 9-4 against the spread this season and 10-2-1 to the over/under.

Alperen Sengun has taken his game to new heights this season, posting averages of 23.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists. He has served as the hub of the Rockets’ offense, which has been especially crucial with their limited point guard depth. Kevin Durant has fulfilled the score-first role as their prized offseason addition, leading the team with 25.5 points per game along with 4.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists. Amen Thompson has also taken a leap in his development with 16.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game, while Jabari Smith Jr. continues on his proper developmental arc. Reed Sheppard has found his footing of late, shooting a team-best 47.3% from beyond the arc. Steven Adams, Josh Okogie, Aaron Holiday, and Clint Capela round out most of their remaining rotation. 

The Rockets rank first in offensive rating and trail only Denver with the second-most points per game (123.9). Houston leads the league in rebounds per game and has the best team three-point percentage at 42.3%, despite being dead last in perimeter volume. They are eighth in field goal percentage overall and pull in the most offensive rebounds per contest.

Defensively, opponents are scoring 112.5 points per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA, and they are seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage. They boast the sixth-best defensive rating and rank third in average margin of victory.

Steven Adams and Jabari Smith Jr. are each questionable with knee and ankle issues for tonight’s matchup. Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith remain out for an extended period of time, while Fred VanVleet is sidelined for the season from his offseason ACL tear.

Nuggets at Rockets Prediction, Best Bet

This is a battle of two of the best Western Conference teams looking to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top team in the conference — and likely the entire NBA. The pair of teams holds some similarities in their construction, with each playing through their big man as the primary playmaker and hub of the offense. Both sides have more depth than has been the case in their respective eras and have looked strong out of the gate.

With this in mind, my slight lean would be towards backing the Nuggets on the points as an added insurance. But I am taking the over of 235.5 points in this matchup as the two top-scoring offenses in the league square off. Both these teams have been scoring at an incredible pace all season, and especially of late. Denver has cleared the over in eight of the 14 games this year, including three of their past four. Houston has cleared the game total in 10 of their 13 games, and six of their past seven leading into Friday night. The over has also cashed in four of the past five meetings between these two opponents.

Just looking at their scoring averages, these teams would combine for 248.5 points, which is a comfortable cushion above the 235.5 game total. Houston has the personnel to execute a high-level defense, but has not fully put it together quite this year yet. In contrast, Denver has performed a bit better than expected on this side of the ball. Still, they appear to be coming back to earth a bit with 130 points allowed to the Bulls on Monday, and are allowing an average of 120 points per game over their last three.

Expect this to be a playoff-like atmosphere from a matchup perspective, but for the defense to fail to reach this level of quality. The youthful Rockets’ roster should cause some real issues in transition, and both these teams have been pretty surgical in their half-court attack. Count on both sides having some offensive success and for each side to have a chance to score 120+ in this NBA Cup battle.

Best Bet: Over 235.5 Points (-108)