The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts UC Santa Barbara on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
UC Santa Barbara (3-1) at Nevada (3-2)
When: Saturday, 2 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: Nevada Sports Net/95.5 FM
Online: NevadaSportsNet.com
Betting line: Nevada by 12.5; total of 142.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Focus on finishing: We pointed out this stat in our last game preview as Nevada has struggled to finish around the rim this season, hitting just 44.2 percent of “close twos” compared to last year’s mark of 65.7 percent. That was again apparent against UC Davis on Tuesday as Nevada made only 13-of-33 shots inside the arc (39.4 percent). The Wolf Pack has actually made a higher percentage of “long twos” than “close two,” which is unheard of. Nevada seems to be seeking contact around the rim, which is leading an enhanced free throw rate (31.4 attempts per game), perhaps at the cost of finishing close-range shots. To find an offensive rhythm, Nevada needs to focus on finishing instead of creating contact.
2. Strong on-ball defense: UC Santa Barbara doesn’t play anybody taller than 6-foot-8 with an offensive attack that includes multiple ball-handlers and all sorts of players who can make 3-pointers. It’s a dangerous unit to try and stop for a Nevada defense that has been vulnerable to allowing opening 3-pointers this season. UC Santa Barbara is making 38.6 percent of its threes, including 41.6 percent against D-I competition. The Gauchos’ offensive efficiency ranks 78th in the nation, per KenPom. They’ll be a hard team to press, a scheme Nevada has used this year at times, as UC Santa Barbara has had just 9.3 turnovers per game. Nevada’s on-ball defense must be better to avoid those open looks from deep.
3. Limit the turnovers: UC Santa Barbara will probably score at a high clip with this being the second-best offense the Wolf Pack has faced this season behind Santa Clara, which hung 98 on Nevada. The Wolf Pack will have to answer with an even better offensive game. It can’t fuel the Gauchos’ offense with turnovers, which were an issue in Tuesday’s loss to UC Davis. Nevada had 17 giveaways in that game, and UC Santa Barbara has done a good job of creating turnovers (13.0 forced per game). The Wolf Pack needs to play cleaner than it has in its last two outings when it’s combined for 29 turnovers after losing the ball just four times in a 45-minute overtime win over Southern Illinois before that.
Prediction
UC Santa Barbara 80, Nevada 75: Nevada will look to right the ship against a UC Santa Barbara team that was picked to finish second in the Big West preseason poll. The Wolf Pack just lost to UC Davis, which was picked sixth in the Big West preseason poll. So, Nevada must elevate its level of play against a Gauchos team that hasn’t had a losing record under coach Joe Pasternack, who is 172-82 at the school with NCAA Tournament berths in 2021 and 2023. The Gauchos have a nice mix of returners and transfers, headlined by ex-St. Mary’s star Aidan Mahaney, most recently at UConn, and Utah transfer Miro Little. UC Santa Barbara’s defense isn’t very good, but this is an excellent shooting team that could expose one of Nevada’s biggest weaknesses – 3-point defense. Season record: 4-1
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.