The Nuggets are -3.5 favorites vs. the Suns
Total (Over/Under): 232.5 points
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The Denver Nuggets visit Mortgage Matchup Center to take on the Phoenix Suns on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Phoenix, AZ.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Nuggets vs Suns Over/Under is 232.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 11-7 against the spread, while the Suns are 14-6 against the spread.
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Nuggets vs. Suns Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineDenver Nuggets-3.5 -115O 232.5 -110-175Phoenix Suns +3.5 -105U 232.5 -110145
Suns vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Saturday‘s game with 63.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Suns.
Suns vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 54.0% confidence.
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Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 40 of their last 62 games (+15.80 Units / 22% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 away games (+15.55 Units / 26% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 48 of their last 79 games (+15.40 Units / 9% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 away games (+14.40 Units / 33% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+13.79 Units / 22% ROI)
Suns Best Bets for Tonight:
The Phoenix Suns have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+11.11 Units / 24% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 55% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 11-7 (+3.3 Units / 16.62% ROI).
13-5 against the Moneyline (-5.05 Units / -7.43% ROI)
11-7 against the Over for game total points (+3.33 Units / 16.84% ROI)
7-11 against the Under for game total points (-5.1 Units / -25.68% ROI)
Phoenix Suns Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 14-6 (+7.4 Units / 33.64% ROI).
12-8 against the Moneyline (+5.85 Units / 22.29% ROI)
9-11 against the Over for game total points (-3.1 Units / -14.09% ROI)
11-9 against the Under for game total points (+1.1 Units / 5% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Suns:
The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 31 of their last 84 games (-29.09 Units / -26% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 2H Spread in 32 of their last 84 games (-23.82 Units / -25% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 79 games (-18.50 Units / -17% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 84 games (-17.43 Units / -18% ROI)
The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 3Q Spread in 38 of their last 84 games (-15.50 Units / -16% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 73 games (-23.87 Units / -24% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 28 of their last 73 games (-22.43 Units / -27% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 96 games (-21.60 Units / -20% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 41 of their last 96 games (-21.10 Units / -19% ROI)
The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 97 games (-20.60 Units / -19% ROI)
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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns
The Suns have averaged 21.2 points in the paint per game (3,896 points/184 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.4
The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (512 assists/ 336 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Suns averaged 42.2 points in the paint per game (3,460 points/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0
The Suns averaged 5.9 fast break points per game (487 points/82 games) in the first half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0
Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets were 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572
The Nuggets were 5-1 (.833) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544
The Nuggets were 20-8 (.714) when allowing 15 or more second chance points in the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
The Nuggets were 25-8 (.758) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Suns have averaged 21.2 points in the paint per game (3,896 points/184 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.4
The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (512 assists/ 336 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Suns averaged 42.2 points in the paint per game (3,460 points/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0
The Suns averaged 5.9 fast break points per game (487 points/82 games) in the first half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0
Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets were 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572
The Nuggets were 5-1 (.833) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544
The Nuggets were 20-8 (.714) when allowing 15 or more second chance points in the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
The Nuggets were 25-8 (.758) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Suns have averaged 21.2 points in the paint per game (3,896 points/184 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.4
The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (512 assists/ 336 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Suns averaged 42.2 points in the paint per game (3,460 points/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0
The Suns averaged 5.9 fast break points per game (487 points/82 games) in the first half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0
Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets were 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572
The Nuggets were 5-1 (.833) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544
The Nuggets were 20-8 (.714) when allowing 15 or more second chance points in the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
The Nuggets were 25-8 (.758) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543
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