Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Saturday’s Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat NBA matchup.
Eight games of NBA action will be taking place across today’s Saturday slate. Headlining the action, the Detroit Pistons will take on the Miami Heat. Both these teams should be pleased by their start to the season, sitting in first and third place in the Eastern Conference.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Heat enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -180 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Pistons hold +150 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 239.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.
Pistons vs. Heat prediction, preview
It is time to begin viewing the Pistons in a different light. Detroit has looked like one of the best teams in basketball all season with a 15-4 record, which put them at the top of the Eastern Conference. They are looking to bounce back from consecutive losses for the first time this season, which came at the hands of the Celtics and Magic. This snapped a 13-game winning streak. The Pistons are 12-7 against the spread on the season, and the over is 10-8-1 in their matchups.
Detroit will be without Jalen Duren tonight due to a leg injury, which is a big hit to their interior production. The 22-year-old is averaging 19.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per game this season, on track to earn his first All-Star appearance. Bobi Klintman and Marcus Sasser will also miss tonight’s matchup, while Caris LeVert is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Jaden Ivey is not currently listed, but his status is worth monitoring as he continues his return to play process after logging 10 minutes last night. There is still plenty of talent set to play, with Cade Cunningham headlining the effort with his averages of 28.8 points, 9.4 assists, and 6.6 rebounds per game.
The Pistons are averaging 118.8 points per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. Detroit does most of its damage inside the arc, ranking 28th in three-point attempts per game. The Pistons rank eighth in the league in field goal percentage and third in rebounds per game. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 112.8 points per contest, which is the fifth-best rate in the NBA. Detroit ranks fourth in opponent field-goal percentage, gives up the fewest assists in the league, and rank fourth in blocks and third in steals tallied.
With the Jimmy Butler era officially put behind them, the Miami Heat have gotten out of the gates hot this season. They enter with a 13-6 record, which puts them in third place in the Eastern Conference. Plus, they’ve won six consecutive games entering this matchup. Miami is 12-7 against the spread and the over has cashed in 10 of the 19 games.
Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins are each listed as probable for this matchup, while Jaime Jaquez Jr. is questionable due to a groin issue. Tyler Herro made his return to the floor recently, with this one expected to be his third game of the season. Herro has picked up right where he left off with a team-high 26.5 points per game along with 6.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists, while Powell has built off his career-best season last year in a new location. He is averaging 24.5 points per game while shooting 44.1% from beyond the three-point arc. Bam Adebayo continues to produce, while Kel’el Ware has shown some encouraging signs of growth.
Miami is averaging 122.9 points per game, which is the second-most in the NBA. They rank second in the league in assists, 10th in field goal percentage, 12th in three-point percentage, and fourth in rebounds per game. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 117.2 points per game, which ranks 18th, and they are second in opponents’ field goal percentage and three-point percentage allowed.
Pistons vs. Heat pick, best bet
The absence of Jalen Duren is a big deal, and Miami has the rest advantage on its side. The Heat have been off since Wednesday, while the Pistons are suiting up for the second half of a back-to-back. But the 4.5-point spread is a bit too wide for my liking, and I am backing the Pistons to cover and be alive as underdogs for the outright upset.
Even with the back-to-back losses in mind, Detroit has dropped these by three points each and has only lost by more than the 4.5-point margin in one of their four losses on the campaign. While Miami’s raw rebounding numbers are strong, the team ranks 29th in opponent rebounds allowed and dead-last in offensive rebounds conceded. This will be a problem against a Detroit team that swarms to the boards, even without Duren available. Expect Isaiah Stewart to be ready to throw his weight around, while Ausar Thompson and Paul Reed make their impacts felt as well.
Miami does a great job chasing opponents off the three-point line, but this will not be as much of a factor given Detroit’s 28th-ranked three-point volume. There will also be some revenge on the mind of the Pistons’ top three-point threat, Duncan Robinson, as he faces his former team for the first time.
The circumstances are in Miami’s favor, but the floor of quality is higher for Detroit. Neither of these teams has been outright embarrassed this year, so expect this to be a battle down to the wire. With all this in mind, I am backing Detroit to cover the 4.5-point spread and will be giving some consideration to the outright upset.