Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz matchup on Monday as part of the nine-game NBA schedule.

Tonight, a Western Conference powerhouse heads to the mountains to battle one of the NBA’s young, rebuilding squads. The Houston Rockets and Kevin Durant just keep the wins flowing, and while Lauri Markkanen and the Utah Jazz are a feisty bunch, this matchup brings some blowout potential given the talent disparity. Is there still betting value though? Absolutely, so walk with us as we find it.

Here’s a Rockets vs. Jazz prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s matchup.

Rockets vs. Jazz prediction, preview

The Western Conference is a slugfest between the No. 2 and No. 5 spots in the standings at the moment, but the Houston Rockets have the early makings of a real challenger at 13-4. They’re currently second in the league with a +11.9 NETRTG, the fourth highest-scoring offense and the second-stingiest defense in terms of raw points scored and allowed. The team weathered a pair of games without leading scorer Kevin Durant (24.6 PPG, 38.6% 3P%) and emerged with wins on both nights, so there’s proof of concept here even when the veteran superstar misses time. However, he returned to the tune of 25 points last night, picking up right where he left off. Alperen Sengun is slumping slightly but still boasts averages of 22.3 PPG along with team-highs in assists (6.9) and rebounds (9.1), playing at an All-NBA caliber. Elsewhere on the roster, Amen Thompson (16.7 PPG, 6.9 REB) and Jabari Smith Jr. (15.1 PPG, 6.4 REB) play key two-way roles, and second-year guard Reed Sheppard is on the upswing with 13.9 PPG while shooting 45.1% from three.

The Utah Jazz continue the tank to the bottom of the standings with the goal of adding another top lottery pick to the lineup at the season’s conclusion. At 6-13, they’re on the way to that result but are already over 1/3 of the way to matching last year’s win column, so there are signs of improvement here. Expectedly, Utah ranks 25th in NETRTG at -7.4 — the defense isn’t great with the second-most points allowed to opponents, but the offense does come in at 16th in the Association. Lauri Markkanen is back to All-Star form with 27.9 PPG as the lead option, and Keyonte George continues to see important reps as a primary creator with 22.5 PPG and 6.8 AST, though his efficiency could still use work. No. 3 pick Ace Bailey is third on the team with 10.1 PPG, flashing some potential as an offensive option. However, the remaining pieces of this core aren’t standing out thus far and growth from Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh and Kyle Filipowski would be nice to see.

Rockets vs. Jazz pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as -11.5 favorites on the road tonight with -650 odds on the Moneyline. The Jazz are listed as +470 underdogs to win outright with the game total set at 233.5. As for betting splits, a staggering 93% of straight wagers favor Houston while 68% are on the total’s over.

On the injury report, Steven Adams is the only notable loss for either side as the Rockets’ backup center sits out for rest reasons. With both teams largely healthy, the visitors should outright dominate the competition here in Salt Lake City. Houston’s offense is one of the league’s most overwhelming, and the unit has only improved recently with Sheppard playing the best ball of his young career. He’s provided a much-needed spark plug as the lead guard in the absence of Fred VanVleet, displaying some stellar shooting and active hands on the defensive side of the ball as well. The Rockets still take the second-fewest three-pointers of any team, but top-10 efficiency and a league-best 16.6 offensive rebounds per game mean there are few wasted possessions.

The Jazz do have some nice pieces, but Houston’s defensive-minded forwards should key on Markkanen tonight and slow him down. By forcing younger and less-experiences players to carry the load, Utah’s offense may falter compared to usual, leaving a vulnerable defense to be picked apart by Durant and Sengun. The Rockets are 9-1 ATS on the road this season and 7-1 as an away favorite, so they should handle business and cover despite the wide spread on Monday night.

Top pick: HOU Rockets -11.5 (-110)