Arguably the game of the night in the NBA takes place at 11 p.m. EST on NBC, as the Golden State Warriors look to stay over .500 when they host the 20-1 Oklahoma City Thunder.

Jalen Williams is back and OKC has a real chance to finish with the best regular-season record in NBA history after a fast start to the regular season.

Meanwhile, Golden State will not have Steph Curry (quad) on Tuesday night, leading to it being set as a sizable home underdog. The Warriors are 7-2 at home this season, but they are just 2-3 when Curry is out of the lineup.

The Thunder have won 12 games in a row, including a 24-point home win over Golden State back on Nov. 11. Does the streak reach 13 tonight?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this nationally televised matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Moneyline

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Thunder Injury ReportWarriors Injury ReportWarriors Best NBA Prop Bet

Butler is listed as questionable for this game, but Steve Kerr said on Monday that he’s expected to play.

With Curry out for this game, Butler should have a major playmaking role on Tuesday if he’s able to suit up.

The six-time All-Star is averaging 5.2 assists per game (on 11.5 potential assists a night), and he’s picked up at least five dimes in 11 games this season, including each of his last four matchups. Butler had a 10-assist game with Curry out of the lineup against New Orleans in Golden State’s last game.

The Thunder are a tough matchup — they rank second in the NBA in opponent assists per game — but I’m going to buy the increased volume for Butler in this matchup. He should be on the ball more often than not for Golden State, and he’s proven to be a strong passer in his NBA career when tasked with being the primary initiator on offense.

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m fading Golden State’s offense in this matchup:

This is a prime spot to fade the Warriors with Steph Curry out and Jimmy Butler expected to play through a back injury (he’s listed as questionable). 

The Warriors are just 23rd in the NBA in offensive rating this season, and they have struggled when Steph doesn’t play, going 2-3 this season. That’s a major concern against a Thunder team that is No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rating (103.6) and No. 1 in opponent points per game (106.7) this season.

Curry has been awesome for the Warriors this season, averaging nearly 28 per game, and losing his offense has hurt Golden State this season. In the five games that Curry has missed, the Warriors have scored 116 (in a loss), 104 (in a loss), 114 (in a win), 96 (in a loss) and 104 points (in a win). 

So, they’ve fallen short of this line 60 percent of the time when Curry doesn’t play, and they only dropped 104 points in the last game he missed against a New Orleans team that is in the bottom three in the NBA in defensive rating this season.

I’ll fade Golden State on Tuesday against a Thunder team that only has one loss this season and held Golden State to 102 points with Curry in the lineup earlier in the campaign.

Pick: Warriors Team Total UNDER 104.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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