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Rarely does a really good team outperform the point spread at a significant rate. Usually the betting market adjusts properly for the top teams.Â
For example, the defending champion Thunder have a 20-1 record but are just 10-11 against the spread (ATS). That is typically what we see.
However, the Pistons, who own the NBA’s second-best record at 17-4 are an impressive 13-8 ATS. That ranks among the best marks in the entire league.
Detroit visits the Bucks on Wednesday as a three-point favorite with a total of 233 points.
The Bucks are a disappointing 9-13 this season (and 9-13 ATS) but a key reason for that sub-.500 mark is the injury bug. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo recently returned from a left abductor strain and so did point guard Kevin Porter Jr. from knee surgery.
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots a free throw during the game against the Washington Wizards on December 1, 2025 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NBAE via Getty Images
But optimizing the rotation should take some time, especially with Porter leaving Milwaukee’s most recent game with back spasms. This only raises more concern for a team that has lost eight of its last nine games.
The Pistons recently saw their 13-game win streak snapped with back-to-back losses, but they responded with consecutive victories by one possession. That speaks volumes to me. They are clearly determined to capture the top seed in the Eastern Conference. They have approached the regular season with maximum effort and importance.Â
Betting on the NBA?
The Bucks certainly have a lot of talent, particularly with Antetokounmpo leading the way, but Detroit looks like a well-oiled machine that I am reluctant to bet against.
I have an 80-67-2 ATS record in this Post sports section. My next play is Detroit laying three points on Wednesday (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.