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Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts after an apparent injury against the Detroit Pistons during the first quarter at Fiserv Forum on December 03, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
The betting odds on where Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo will be traded to have taken a dramatic turn in the last 24 hours or so.
As of Tuesday, there was a 67% chance that Antetokounmpo would not be traded during the 2025-26 season, while the New York Knicks had a 25% shot of landing the two-time MVP, per Polymarket.
Since then, the odds have shifted dramatically, with the Knicks jumping to pole position at 27%, “not traded” at 26% and the San Antonio Spurs at 21%.
The Atlanta Hawks (13%) and Toronto Raptors (8%) round off the top five, followed by the Los Angeles Lakers (5%) and Houston Rockets (5%).
Knicks Giannis Odds Dropping
It’s worth noting that the Knicks’ chances had, at one point, skyrocketed to 40% on Wednesday, but crashed when reports surfaced that they won’t have an “exclusive negotiating” window for Antetokounmpo, like when they did over the summer.
Per ESPN’s Shams Charania, the Bucks will engage teams around the league if and when a Giannis trade becomes inevitable.
“Sources described it as an exclusive negotiating window for the Knicks over a multiweek period in August, but that will not be the case moving forward,” Charania wrote on Wednesday.
“Multiple other teams would be expected to emerge as suitors for the nine-time All-Star if trades are explored.”
Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team
The Spurs’ chances spiked from 10% to 21% within 24 hours after Dallas Hoops Journal’s Ashish Mathur reported that San Antonio will “aggressively” pursue Antetokounmpo, with hopes of pairing him with Victor Wembanyama.
The report noted that the Spurs strategically held onto all their assets over the offseason, as they plan to pursue a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade.
“One of the reasons the Spurs didn’t heavily pursue Kevin Durant in the offseason is that the front office wanted to save trade assets for Antetokounmpo, sources said.
“San Antonio has a bevy of draft picks it can offer to Milwaukee, plus young players such as Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle.”
As the report noted, the Spurs could build a package around reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and/or Dylan Harper, along with an abundance of draft assets. Besides having control over all their picks, the Spurs own Atlanta’s 2027 first-rounder (unprotected) and favorable pick swaps with the Celtics (2028) and Mavericks (2031).
As for the Knicks, they don’t have any tradeable first-round picks, and would have to essentially build a package around at least two of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, or get a third team involved to acquire draft capital.
Sai Mohan covers the NBA for Heavy.com. Based in Portugal, Sai is a seasoned sports writer with nearly two decades of publishing experience, including bylines at Yardbarker, FanSided’s Hoops Habit, International Business Times, Hindustan Times and more. More about Sai Mohan
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