On Wednesday, the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade saga appeared ready to launch.

After an offseason of rumors about the Greek superstar’s status in Milwaukee, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Antetokounmpo and his representatives would be meeting with the Bucks’ front office to explore whether a trade is in everybody’s best interests. Then the two-time MVP went down with a calf strain in the team’s win over the Pistons that night and everything is now in a holding pattern; it’s likely the topic of a trade won’t even be broached until Antetokounmpo is healthy, or at least receives a recovery timeline for his latest injury.

Nevertheless, the cat is out of the bag. A Giannis trade is more realistic than ever before. Even with the injury it’s tempting to survey the landscape of the NBA and try to figure who could land the superstar forward. The most popular candidates discussed after the news broke were the usual suspects for star trade discussion: the Knicks (after Antetokounmpo reportedly requested the Bucks look into a trade specifically with New York over the offseason), the Lakers and the Warriors. All three teams are in big markets and have a recent history of big swings via star trade acquisitions, so it makes sense most theoretical trade packages would include one of those squads.

But there’s one Eastern Conference team flying under the radar that fits the bill as a sleeper candidate in the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes: the Hawks.

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The Hawks check two boxes for an Antetokounmpo trade: desirable draft assets and a big enough contract that the finances won’t be too complicated. Most other teams who would realistically pursue Antetokounmpo can only offer one of those two.

First, the contract. Atlanta’s Trae Young is making $45.9 million this season in the fourth year of his $215 million max extension; he has a player option worth $48.9 million for next season. It’s a big enough salary that, according to the Fanspo trade machine, the Hawks could trade Young for Antetokounmpo straight-up and it works despite the complicated trade rules of the first apron. That, of course, will not happen. If the Bucks are going to trade their superstar player they’ll want way more than just Young in return, even if they’re high on the guard’s elite playmaking skills. But as a starting point it makes putting together the rest of the trade package simple, which is an advantage.

Second, thanks to a draft day trade last June the Hawks have a draft asset the Bucks would absolutely love to land: the rights to their own 2026 first-round pick. Milwaukee traded the right to swap picks to the Pelicans as part of the Jrue Holiday trade way back when; New Orleans sent it to Atlanta during the 2025 NBA draft. This means, as things stand, the Hawks get either the Bucks’ or the Pelicans’ pick depending on which one is better. If Atlanta sent control of the pick back to Milwaukee the Bucks would be able to keep the pick if they bottomed out without Antetokounmpo, which is probably the franchise’s biggest worry about trading him.

There’s no point in dumping the superstar in order to tank this season because they don’t control their own pick. But if they traded him to Atlanta and got to make their own selection in a pretty loaded 2026 draft? That would change everything. The Hawks also own the rights to the Bucks’ 2027 pick swap but via a complicated series of protections involving the Spurs so adding that to the package would be tricky, but doable.

Lastly, there’s motivation in Atlanta to take this kind of swing. The franchise has been unusually aggressive under GM Onsi Saleh and he put together a very solid squad this year that currently occupies the fourth spot in the East standings despite Young missing all but five games so far this season. They are good enough to compete in a weak conference this season and could wind up favorites if Atlanta acquired Antetokounmpo without decimating the roster to do so.

Which is the kicker. How can the Hawks land Giannis without weakening the team to the point they would struggle to contend?

The Bucks would definitely try to pry Jalen Johnson from Atlanta. The fifth-year wing has exploded this season after a breakout campaign last year was derailed by a season-ending shoulder injury. Johnson is averaging 20.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game as the sort of do-it-all wing that dominates today’s NBA. He seems destined for an All-Star berth and has plenty more room to develop at only 23 years old. But Johnson’s outlook is so bright at this point the Hawks would be loathe to give him up—to the point they may not engage in Antetokounmpo trade talks if the Bucks require Johnson as part of the package.

So let’s assume Milwaukee is willing to play ball sans Johnson in order to get their picks back. A package featuring Young and one or both of the Bucks’ draft picks in the next two years would definitely be a good starting point. To sweeten the pot the Hawks could try to add in Zaccharie Risacher, the first pick in the 2024 draft who has shown flashes of intrigue but doesn’t project to be more than a competent rotation player as of now. Milwaukee would probably counter by trying to add Dyson Daniels, a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber defender with a penchant for massive steal totals.

There are two realistic trade packages, then. Young, Risacher, the Bucks’ two picks, and whatever other draft assets Atlanta has leftover given the team still owes picks to the Spurs for the Dejounte Murray trade. Or just Young, Daniels, and the Bucks’ two picks. Both options get Milwaukee control over its next two drafts and enticing young players to go with Young. Then the Bucks could try to direct Young to a third team or decide to give him a trial run before making a decision on his future with the franchise this offseason, pending his player option.

Something to monitor if the Giannis sweepstakes get truly underway.

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