For about 30 years, the NBA’s Western Conference, on the aggregate, has been stronger than the East in the regular season. The West has typically been as deep as 10 or 11 teams that crossed the 40-win threshold, whereas only six to eight would get there in the East.
That has not been the trend to start this season.
The East has several upside surprises, including Toronto and Miami, and while the bottom is really bad — with Brooklyn and Washington and Charlotte sinking like stones as expected — there are a lot of teams hovering right above .500, depending on the night. The West, however, has seen a few teams soar to the ceiling, starting with the Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets and Lakers, but many expected playoff contenders, such as the Clippers and Mavericks, are struggling badly. And the Kings, for all their names, aren’t close to competency.
So where does that leave the Memphis Grizzlies, who haven’t been great but has shown signs of life in getting back to 9-13, now tied for ninth with Portland?
In the Play-In seeding spots, where they figure to stay, since it’s hard to see how the Grizzlies rise to sixth considering that Anthony Edwards and Minnesota currently occupy that spot. And it’s also not easy to envision Memphis dropping to 11th.
But if they do, which team is most likely to put them there?
1. Markkanen’s men
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The Utah Jazz don’t stop anyone, but they have a legit star scorer in Lauri Markkanen, who has taken another leap — and provided they don’t move him and actively turn to tanking (as they have before), they may hang around a bit. Ace Bailey has been impressive as a rookie, And Keyonte George is up to 23.1 points per game, plus 4.0 rebounds and 7.0 rebounds. They’re young (with the exception of mentor Kevin Love) and don’t seem to have the dysfunction of some of the other squads. They may make Memphis work.
2. Captured by Flagg?
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The Dallas Mavericks may be one to watch. Cooper Flagg, at just 18, is improving rapidly, and now Anthony Davis is back (before he will be gone again and back and gone again….). Ryan Nembhard has been a revelation as a two-way rookie, and his emergence has allowed Flagg to play small forward, his proper position. Dallas defends, and even with their other bigs injured, they may survive long enough for Kyrie Irving to return and save their scoring. Of course, all of this is dependent on them not trading Davis.
3. Two we can’t take seriously
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Westbrook. DeRozan. LaVine. Kawhi. Harden. Sabonis. Zubac…. And until recently, Chris Paul. Lot of names for the Clippers and the Kings. And maybe a terrifying team in 2019. But now, both teams are dumpster fires and that doesn’t seem likely to change. Could one make a charge? Crazy to say but it might be the Clippers, only because Leonard is still elite when available and engaged. But the Grizzlies should have the capability to hold either off — and they have shown in recent road wins against both — provided that Ja Morant can give them more than he did early in the season, or they get something of value for him.