Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for tonight’s matchup between the Lakers and the Spurs.

The Lakers are hosting the Spurs on Wednesday for an NBA Cup quarterfinals matchup. The winner of this contest will advance to the semifinals and face the winner of Wednesday’s matchup between the Thunder and the Suns. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lakers are favored by 7.5 points over the Spurs on Wednesday and this contest carries a total of 240.5 points.

Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.

Lakers vs. Spurs preview, prediction

The Lakers and Spurs have met once already this season on November 5th and Los Angeles won that game 118-116 in a nail biter. However, things are much different for both teams just over a month later. San Antonio had Victor Wembanyama active for that game, but he will miss his 12th in a row tonight with a calf injury. As for the Lakers, LeBron James and Austin Reaves both missed that first tilt vs. the Spurs, but both players will be active tonight.

The Lakers are 17-6 and rank 13th in net rating this season. Tonight will be just the seventh game of the season that Los Angeles’ big three of Doncic, James and Reaves have played together and this trio went 5-1 in the first six. Most recently, the Lakers just beat the 76ers 112-108 in Philadelphia on Sunday and James had his best game of the season, posting 29 points, seven rebounds and six assists, including 12 points in the fourth quarter.

Seeing the 40-year-old finally come alive as a scorer was very encouraging, as in his previous start, he snapped his NBA all-time record of consecutive games with 10+ points at an eye popping 1,297. James obviously isn’t the MVP type player he was for most of his career, but the veteran is still an elite talent despite his age and if James can get back to consistently scoring over 20 points a night, to complement Doncic’s dominance, the Lakers are going to be a tough team to beat. This season, the Slovenian has been incredible, leading the NBA with 35 PPG – which is a career-high for the guard – to go along with 9.1 assists per game. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Doncic carries the third-best odds to win MVP at +270.

While the Lakers have all their stars healthy, the Spurs are missing Wembanyama. San Antonio is impressively 8-3 since the big man got hurt, but the team’s splits without Wembanayama suggest this group is due for some negative regression, as with him off the floor this season, the Spurs’ net rating drops a notable 7.4 points.

The Spurs rank seventh in offensive rating with Wembanyama sidelined for the last 11 and their offensive rating is 4.7 points better with him off the court, but San Antonio’s defensive rating plummets 12.0 points with Wembanyama off the court and the team ranks 22nd in defensive rating since he got hurt. With De’Aaron Fox leading the way, the Spurs likely will be able to score the ball effectively tonight vs. this Lakers’ defense that ranks 21st in rating this season. However, this Wembanayama-less San Antonio slowing down the Lakers’ high powered offense is a totally different story and the Spurs’ struggles on the defensive end will likely be the difference in this contest.

Lakers vs. Spurs pick, best bet

The Spurs’ defense is going to have no answers for this full strength Lakers team on their home floor and Los Angeles should secure it’s spot in the NBA Cup semifinals with a win tonight.

Backing the Lakers -7.5 is viable, but backing this game to go over it’s 240.5-point total is more appealing. While this is a high number, both Los Angeles and San Antonio are great offenses and subpar defenses, so this game should be a true shootout. This season, the Lakers are a league-best 16-7 for the over, while the Spurs rank ninth with a 13-10 record.

Best Bet: Over 240.5 Points (-112)