The Miami Heat square off with the Orlando Magic in the Emirates Cup quarterfinals on Tuesday. (Photo Courtesy of the NBA)
Tuesday isn’t just any regular season game for the Miami Heat. They square off with the Orlando Magic inside Kia Center at 6:00 p.m. in the Emirates Cup quarterfinals!
There is plenty at stake for the Heat, who enter at 14-10. Since it’s a high-stakes affair, why not bring the best bets back!
I’m the world’s worst sports gambler. Though we actually had some success last play-in and postseason, going 11-7 in our best bets! Let’s continue to ride that success for the Emirates Cup, shall we?!
(Editor’s Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at 11:30 a.m. EST.)
Davion Mitchell o15.5 PTS+AST (-118):
Anyone who followed the best bets series during last year’s play-in/playoffs knew how much I loved attacking Davion Mitchell’s PA line.
The fifth-year guard is averaging 17.5 PA’s through 23 games. He missed Saturday’s game with a right hip contusion, but he’s probable ahead of Tuesday’s game. And I don’t expect there to be many restrictions in a high-stakes affair with multiple days’ rest.
For one, Mitchell’s exceeded this 15.5 line in 15 of his 23 games (65.2 success rate), averaging 7.7 field goal attempts and 12 potential assists. He only had six potentials in their one-point loss to Orlando on Friday, but he still recorded 17 PA.
Teams are staying home more often against the Heat. But the Magic are dead last in PA’s given up to opposing point guards, and Mitchell’s still averaging 10.2 potentials and 7.1 FGA’s over his last 10. When he reaches 10 potentials and seven FGA, he’s been over 15.5 PA in seven of his 10 games this year and in 15 of his last 20 games. I’m eating the cheese here, once again!
Bam Adebayo o18.5 PTS (-102):
Adebayo has loved squaring off with Wendell Carter Jr.
Adebayo has attempted at least 13 field goals in six of their last eight meetings, including 15 FGA en route to a 24-point, 15-rebound effort on Friday. The Magic have been pretty good against opposing bigs in the scoring department this season. But in head-to-head meetings when Adebayo’s reached that 13 FGA threshold, he’s exceeded 18.5 points five of seven times, averaging 21.4 points.
Additionally, for the season, he’s averaging 14.4 field goal attempts, reaching at least 13 FGA in 13 of his 18 games. In those games, he’s eclipsed 18.5 points nine times (69.2 percent success rate). And after he attempted only nine attempts Saturday against the Sacramento Kings — albeit in 25 minutes — I’m expecting him to be a focal point of the team’s offensive game plan in a high-stakes game.
Anthony Black o23.5 PRA (-130):
I was admittedly hoping to get this at better value, but it hasn’t completely dissipated to the point where I’m staying away from it.
Black, in the running for Sixth Man of the Year, has been one of the Magic’s most productive players this season. He stepped in amicably in Paolo Banchero’s 10-game absence, and I’m expecting a similar bump without Wagner. Black is averaging 25.3 PRA over his last 11 games, having exceeded this 23.5 line in five of his last six games, recording a 28 PRA over that span.
Without Banchero, Black averaged a 22 percent usage rate; in games with a 20 percent USG rate, he’s averaging 12.8 field goal attempts, 5.6 potential assists and 8.3 rebounding chances. Miami is surrendering the seventh-most PRA against opposing point guards. And in games where Black’s attempted at least 10 field goals with five potential assists and eight rebounding chances, he has a 67 percent success rate (4/6), averaging 25.3 PRA.
Four-leg SGP (+1069):
Heat -4.5
Desmond Bane 20+ PTS
Norman Powell 25+ PTS
Jalen Suggs 2+ 3PM
Let’s get spicy!
What are your best bets ahead of Tuesday night’s Miami Heat-Orlando Magic showdown?!
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