Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons matchup on Friday as part of the seven-game NBA slate.

The Detroit Pistons remain atop the Eastern Conference as one of the NBA’s most dominant teams, but a matchup with the Atlanta Hawks tonight brings a test for both sides. These teams have already squared off twice this season with those contests decided by a combined nine points, and we saw a particularly close contest last time out when Detroit eked out a one-point win. Will Cade Cunningham and Co. take their third victory in this series, or can Jalen Johnson and his teammates down one of the league’s most intriguing contenders?

Here’s a Hawks vs. Pistons prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s matchup.

Pistons vs. Hawks prediction, preview

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons look fantastic this season, providing fans a payoff after last year’s glimpse of success and about a decade of mediocrity which preceded it. At 19-5, this roster has the second-most wins in the sport and is easily the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference if this continues. The All-NBA campaign for Cade Cunningham feels very real as he paces the team with 17.5 PPG and 9.3 assists, also sitting third in rebounds with 6.4 boards per game. His ability to create for both himself and others has made him a legitimate superstar, and it’s clear to see how he makes his teammates better. Jalen Duren averages a career-best 18.8 PPG with 11.5 rebounds alongside him, while four other players average double-digit points — Tobias Harris, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart.

The former two of that grouping are valuable offensive options who provide spacing from beyond the arc, helping Detroit rank eighth in PPG (118.7). The latter two are key cogs in one of the league’s top defenses which gives up the sixth-fewest points (113.2) while also sitting fourth in REB% while creating the third-most turnovers for opponents. The Pistons are elite at both ends, creating a +5.4 NETRTG which falls sixth in the league.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are 14-11 overall, good for ninth in the Eastern Conference in what would become a Play-In Tournament spot. Whether that improves upon the return of star Trae Young is unclear, but the team continues to weather his absence in the meantime as he’d still out with an MCL sprain. Without him though, Atlanta still falls 11th in PPG (118.0) as other players have stepped up. Jalen Johnson is a clear pick for Most Improved Player with team-highs of 23.4 PPG, 10.5 rebounds and 7.9 AST, showing signs of stardom as the lead option while logging a 63.3% TS%. His primary running mate is Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who produces a career-high 20.7 PPG of his own. While third-leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis (illness) is out tonight, Onyeka Okongwu has played well as the starting center with 16.0 PPG and 7.4 boards a night. Plus, complimentary pieces like Zaccharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels also pitch in double-digit points.

Defensively, the Hawks fall 17th in opponent scoring (116.5 PPG) but 12th in DEFRTG. Despite Johnson’s dominance on the boards, his team ranks 26th in REB%, though Atlanta comes in at fourth in opponent turnovers just behind the Pistons. Overall, the team’s NETRTG of +1.5 sits 15th of the 30 franchises, too.

Hawks vs. Pistons pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pistons as -7.5 favorites at home tonight with -285 odds on the Moneyline. The Hawks are +230 ML underdogs with the total set at 232.5. The betting splits show 84% of straight wagers on Detroit with 65% of bets on the total favoring the over.

Outside of Porzingis, the injury report is largely clean on both sides. The Pistons are a strong 10-2 straight up at home while the Hawks are a similar 10-5 on the road. It’s worth noting that Atlanta is also 10-5 against the spread in away games as well as 5-2 ATS as an away underdog, but Detroit is just 6-6 ATS at home and 4-5 as a home favorite.

The first two games between these teams ended in a 120-112 win for the Pistons on the road before a 99-98 victory at home, the latter of which didn’t include Cunningham. Both of those meetings went under tonight’s 232.5 total — I generally like the chances of this game going the same direction and would encourage bettors to take the under as the top pick. Porzingis actually missed both of those past meetings so his absence doesn’t play too much of a factor in that regard, though I actually do like Atlanta’s chances of covering +7.5 even without the big man active. As mentioned above, the Pistons aren’t truly putting opponents away on their own court but the Hawks are scrappy road dogs, and the latter still has the talent to keep this one close.

Top pick: Under 232.5 points (-110)