Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Timberwolves at Warriors on Friday.

Last season, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors faced off in the second round of the NBA playoffs. The series was shaping up to be a competitive one, with the Warriors claiming Game 1, 99-88. However, early on in that game, Stephen Curry sustained a hamstring strain and missed the remainder of the series, which the Timberwolves went on to claim in five games.

The teams will run it back for the first time this regular season tonight, when Minnesota travels to face Golden State for a 10 p.m. ET clash. It seemed for a while as if the Warriors would not have Curry for this one, either — he’s been out since November 26 because of a quad contusion — but he’s off the injury report and ready to return to action. Draymond Green (personal) and Al Horford (back) will be out for Golden State, while Mike Conley (Achilles) is out for the Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards (foot) is questionable.

With Curry back in the fold, the Warriors are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 231.5. Minnesota is +105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors preview, prediction

This season, the Timberwolves have basically beaten every bad team they’ve faced and lost to every good one, as they own a 2-8 record against teams at .500 or better (with recent wins over the Boston Celtics and the San Antonio Spurs) and a 13-1 mark against teams below .500. That alone would suggest that they should lose to Golden State tonight, but Minnesota should be confident as long as Edwards — who’s scored 30 or more points in seven of his last nine games and has posted a 65.1% effective field goal percentage across that stretch — is healthy and in form. The Timberwolves have Edwards, one of the best high-post facilitators in Julius Randle, and the league’s leader in field goal percentage (Rudy Gobert), which was enough to win in May and could be the difference again tonight.

Golden State hasn’t had a fully healthy squad for much of the season, as Curry has missed nine games, Green five, Horford 12, and Jonathan Kuminga eight, exposing the Warriors’ lack of depth. All of the uncertainty has forced Steve Kerr to experiment, as 14 different players have started at least one game. Curry has still been at his best when he’s played, ranking near the top of the league in three-pointers made and attempted, and second-round pick Will Richard has been a positive surprise as a starter for much of the season. Other aspects haven’t worked out so well for Golden State, though; Horford has been awful and Kuminga’s revitalization lasted all of nine games.

Timberwolves at Warriors pick, best bet

While Curry would have been the game’s biggest absence if he weren’t available to suit up, both teams’ missing players have been key ingredients to their success this season. Despite underwhelming counting stats (8.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game on 38.2% shooting), Green’s role as a do-it-all connector on both sides of the ball has been pivotal for the Warriors this season, as Golden State has been outscored by 1.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. Conley’s stats (5.3 points and 3.2 assists per game) are even more understated, and while he’s had a negative impact on the team when he’s been on the court as Donte DiVincenzo’s backup, second-year man Rob Dillingham has been even less playable.

The Warriors’ offense hasn’t been good as is (112.7 points per 100 possessions is only good enough for 22nd league-wide) but at least Golden State has been able to win through its defense (the second-best in the league overall and with Green on the floor, but merely the equivalent of the 17th-best with him off). The last time Green missed a game with Curry active, Gary Payton II stepped into the starting lineup. While Payton has had a positive impact on the floor during his minutes, the Warriors’ projected starting lineup of Curry, Payton, Richard, Butler, and Quinten Post is extremely small, and the most similar lineup among Post’s 10-most frequent (with Moses Moody in place of Richard) has been throttled on the boards by 8.9 per 100 possessions. Alternatively, Golden State could go with Hield instead of Payton, but Hield is worse than Payton in all aspects except for shooting at this point in their respective careers.

Either way, I expect the game to be uncompetitive on the boards, as the shortest player in the Timberwolves’ rotation is now one inch taller with either Dillingham or Bones Hyland — each six-foot-two and much more athletic than Conley — taking Conley’s minutes. The Warriors have always rebounded well for their size — they actually out-rebounded Minnesota in their playoff series, 207-201 — but without Green, their rebounding percentage has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. In part, Golden State has been able to survive on the boards because Curry is a tremendous rebounder for his size, but his 6.4% total rebounding percentage this season is a career low and he likely won’t be as aggressive given his injury. The Timberwolves have allowed the third-fewest second-chance points in the league this season, shutting down one avenue of success for the Warriors. They’ve also conceded the fourth-lowest shooting percentage in the restricted area, a zone in which Golden State has been neither prolific nor efficient.

Any shooting luck normalization should unequivocally benefit Minnesota, which has allowed fewer wide-open threes than the Warriors while opponents have hit at a league-average rate. Golden State has benefited tremendously in that opponents have connected on an unsustainably low 32.9% of their wide-open triples, as well as just 34.4% of their catch-and-shoot looks. The Timberwolves need to be more disciplined with the whistle, but that’s negated somewhat by the fact that they’ve done a better job than the Warriors have at drawing contact. Collectively, home-court advantage is a swing of 16.4 points per 100 possessions in favor of Golden State, but that could also be small sample size noise: last season, the swing would have amounted to only 1.9 points per 100 possessions towards the Warriors.

Despite the overwhelming home-court advantage numbers, the fundamentals pretty consistently point in the visitors’ favor. Minnesota hasn’t been particularly convincing against competitive teams, but it should be more able to operate without its absent player than Golden State will be without its defensive hub. I’ll take an upset by the odds that isn’t one in reality.

Best bet: Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline (+105)