San Antonio Spurs (17-7) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1)
The 2025 NBA Cup Semifinals are set for Saturday, December 13, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Western Conference showdown from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, to get you the Spurs vs. Thunder prediction.
The Spurs meet the Thunder for the first time this season. Oklahoma City has dominated San Antonio over the last few years, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their previous 10 encounters.
Let’s take a closer look at this Spurs vs. Thunder prediction, one of our NBA picks for Saturday’s card. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites with a total of 226.5 points, and the tip-off is set at 9:00 PM ET.
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Terms & Conditions The Spurs upset the odds in the quarterfinal
The San Antonio Spurs (17-7; 13-11 ATS; 14-10 O/U) beat the Los Angeles Lakers 132-119 in the NBA Cup quarterfinal this past Wednesday. Playing as seven-point road underdogs, the Spurs outscored the Lakers 39-30 in the first quarter and never looked back.
Stephon Castle tortured the Lakers for 30 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. De’Aaron Fox had 20 points, while the Spurs’ second unit added 48 points. San Antonio made 50.0% of its field goals (17-for-38 from deep) while posting a 25/12 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Victor Wembanyama (26.2 PPG, 12.9 RPG) missed his 12th straight game due to a calf injury. According to the Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson, there’s a good chance that Wemby will suit up for Saturday’s clash against Oklahoma City.
The Spurs have done a great job without Wemby, going 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. San Antonio ranks sixth in the NBA in adjusted offensive efficiency (119.4 points per 100 possessions) and 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency (114.8).
The Thunder trounced the Suns to reach the semis
The Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1; 14-11 ATS; 14-11 O/U) extended their winning streak to 16 games last Wednesday. They dismantled the Phoenix Suns 138-89 in the NBA Cup quarterfinal, covering a 15.5-point spread with ease.
OKC held Phoenix to 39.3% shooting from the field (10-for-31 from deep) and forced the Suns into 21 turnovers. The Thunder made 59.1% of their field goals (22-for-40 from deep) while notching a 32/15 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way for OKC last Wednesday, tallying 28 points and eight assists in 27 minutes on the floor. Chet Holmgren posted 24 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks, while Jalen Williams accounted for 15 points, five boards, and five assists.
Isaiah Hartenstein (12.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG) missed his sixth straight game due to a calf injury, and he’ll almost certainly sit out Saturday’s game against San Antonio. The Thunder carry the best defensive rating in the NBA (104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) and the fourth-best offensive rating (121.9).
Spurs vs. Thunder Pick Spread Pick for Spurs vs. Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (5 units)
I don’t want to step in front of this Oklahoma City team. The Thunder will have to lose eventually, but at the moment, they are looking unbeatable. OKC possesses great depth and plays stifling defense, while the Thunder’s offense is one of the best in the NBA.
Even if Victor Wembanyama suits up, I will take the Thunder. Wemby would certainly help the Spurs, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but I’m not sure that San Antonio is capable of scoring consistently against the Thunder.
OKC leads the league in opposing 2-point percentage (47.4%) and ranks third in defensive rebound percentage (76.7%). The Spurs will have to lean on 3-pointers a lot, but as I said, it’s hard to trust their defense in this matchup.
Over/Under Pick for Spurs vs. Thunder
The Thunder’s interior defense has been outstanding this season. OKC is 21st in opposing 3-point percentage (36.8%), so the Spurs, who make 36.9% of their shots from deep (tied for 8th), will certainly look to keep it close on the back of their 3-point shooting.
San Antonio’s 3-point defense has been bad thus far (38.2%, 26th). The Thunder make 38.1% of their shots from beyond the arc (5th). Both teams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to pace, so I expect a high-scoring affair.
The over is 6-1 in San Antonio’s last seven games overall, and it is 5-1 in OKC’s previous six.
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