Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites are on a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS surge in the Clippers-Rockets series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAC)
* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-89 SU and 128-83-3 ATS (60.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-4.5 at NOP)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 14-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DEN-SAC (o/u at 239.5), POR-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at homein 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 44-16 SU and 36-21 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games over the last four seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 78-38 SU and 68-44-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four seasons
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAC), SACRAMENTO (+10.5 vs DEN)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 82-58 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 18-9 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 14-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
Systems Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DEN-SAC (o/u at 239.5)
* NBA teams playing at Home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 37-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 14-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): POR-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 82-58 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 18-9 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 Under the total playing in 4th in 10+ Days games since Jan 2024
Systems Match (PLAY): 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in LAC-HOU (o/u at 222.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(575) BOSTON at (576) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Celtics-Bucks series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIL (o/u at 223.5)
(577) LA CLIPPERS at (578) HOUSTON
* Favorites are on a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS surge in the LAC-HOU series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAC)
(579) PORTLAND at (580) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are 6-0 ATS in the POR-NOP set since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs POR)
(581) DENVER at (582) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams are 5-0 ATS in the last five matchups between Denver and Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-10.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-89 SU and 128-83-3 ATS (60.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-4.5 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-187 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 323-241 (57.3%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – DEN-SAC (spread +10.5, total 239.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 181-193 SU and 168-196-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-8.5 at MIL)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 77-55 SU and 79-52-1 ATS (60.3%) in their last 132 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PORTLAND at NOP (current spread -4.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 89-19 SU and 60-45-3 ATS (57.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-8.5 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 126-87-2 (59.2%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 281-325-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs POR)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and a ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – POR-NOP
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -10.5 (+2.4)
2. HOUSTON -9.5 (+1.2)
3. BOSTON -8.5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+4.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS +9.5 (+1.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -8.5 (+1.6)
2. PORTLAND -4.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-NOP UNDER 241.5 (-2.1)
2. LAC-HOU UNDER 222.5 (-1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -10.5 (+4.5)
2. PORTLAND -4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIL OVER 223.5 (+2.0)
2. DEN-SAC OVER 239.5 (+1.2)
3. LAC-HOU OVER 222.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: POR-NOP UNDER 241.5 (-1.6)