• What: Michigan State vs. Toledo
• When: 6:30 p.m. Tuesday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Peacock/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 9-1 and entered the week ranked No. 9 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 10 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee, and No. 14 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Toledo is 5-5 and unranked by both major polls. The Rockets are No. 152 in the NET rankings and 158 per Kenpom.
• Betting line: None available yet
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 745-303 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Toledo — Tod Kowalczyk is 437-313 in his 24th season as a head coach, including 301-201 in his 16th season with the Rockets. He previously spent eight seasons as the head coach at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
• Series: MSU leads 6-3 all-time, with MSU winning the most recent meeting, 81-68, in December of 2021. Amazingly, these programs have only played four times in the past 52 years.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.3
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 13.8
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 10.3
SG (99) Divine Ugochukwu (6-3) 5.8
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 11.2
Toledo
C (25) Austin Parks (7-0) 12.0
F (7) Sean Craig (6-7) 13.8
G (4) Kyler VanderJagt (6-4) 11.1
G (3) Sonny Wilson (6-1) 16.1
PG (2) Leroy Blyden (6-1) 14.0
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off a 76-72 win at Penn State on Saturday that wrapped up their December slate of Big Ten play. MSU (9-1, 2-0 Big Ten) now swerves back into non-conference play for three games — Tuesday against Toledo, Saturday against Oakland in Detroit, and Dec. 29 against Cornell — before heading back into the teeth of the league schedule, beginning with a game at a ranked Nebraska team on Jan. 2.
The Spartans started their third different shooting guard at Penn State, going with sophomore transfer Divine Ugochukwu, who delivered 23 points, including all five 3-point attempts, and some big shots. Ugochukwu is also the Spartans’ backup point guard. So they’ll need to figure out the rotation if Ugochukwu’s role is going to shift more off the ball.
Despite a shaky performance at times at Penn State, the Spartans are at or near the top of college basketball in several areas. They’re fourth in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com, eighth in defensive rebounding percentage and 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, rebounding 40% of their own missed shots. Point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the country at 9.7 assists per game.
MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State’s 76-72 win at Penn State
• Toledo update: The Rockets have dropped two straight to fall to 5-5, losing 75-70 at Robert Morris on Saturday, after falling 98-97 at Oakland a week earlier. Toledo and MSU have one common opponent so far, Detroit Mercy. Toledo beat the Titans 90-83 at home. MSU beat them 84-56. Toledo’s weakness is its defense, which is not unusual. Coach Tod Kowalczyk is known for outstanding offense, but if the Rockets are going to contend in the Mid-American Conference, they’ll have to improve on the other end. Their defensive efficiency rates are in the bottom quarter of Division I college basketball, according to Kenpom’s ratings, and their effective field goal percentage defense and 2-point defense is near the very bottom.
Toledo has six players from Michigan on its roster and one assistant coach, associate head coach Justin Ingram, who’s from Lansing and starred at Waverly High School before playing his college ball at Toledo.
• Matchup analysis: Toledo has a nice offensive backcourt in junior Sonny Wilson and freshman Leroy Blyden, both from Detroit Jesuit, who combine to average 30 points and 8.5 assists per game. Blyden, the Michigan Mr. Basketball runner-up last season, is an especially dangerous long-range shooter, at nearly 47% on 3-point tries. Both will let it fly from deep, as will wing Kyler Vanderjagt, from Grand Rapids Northview, who’s also crafty inside the arc. Wilson, the lone key returner on Toledo’s roster from last season, is a terrific scorer off the bounce, especially from midrange and near the rim.
Center Austin Parks, an Ohio State transfer, has decent feet and touch around the rim. He spent two years at the Big Ten level and was a rotation player at times for the Buckeyes. This is a Rockets team with good firepower at the mid-major level, but they’ll struggle to defend the Spartans in the paint and on the offensive glass especially.
• Prediction: It’s hard to see a scenario where Toledo makes this uncomfortable for MSU late in the game, especially given that the Spartans are coming off a performance where they saw firsthand the perils of not putting away a lesser team.
• Make it: MSU 84, Toledo 65
— Graham Couch
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.