Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Jazz at Grizzlies on Friday.
Entering the 2025 NBA Draft, three names stood clearly atop teams’ draft boards: Duke’s Cooper Flagg would be drafted first, and the Rutgers pair of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey would go shortly after.
However, when draft night rolled around, two additional teams passed on Bailey, and he ended up going with the fifth pick to the Utah Jazz — a franchise for which he reportedly did not want to play. Regardless, he should be happy that he ended up with the Jazz, as he’s become a starter for a young team whose rebuild is starting to bear fruit.
Tonight, Flagg and Bailey will face off for the first time in their young careers when Utah hosts Flagg’s Dallas Mavericks for a 9 p.m. ET clash at the Delta Center. The Jazz have a fairly clean injury report, while Anthony Davis (calf) and Daniel Gafford (ankle) are both questionable for the Mavericks.
Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 240.5. Utah is +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz preview, prediction
Nico Harrison might well have been the problem in North Texas, as since firing him, the Mavericks have gone a solid 7-8 to climb into the final Play-In spot in the West, tied with the Portland Trail Blazers and ahead of the Jazz on winning percentage. After a slow start, Flagg is averaging 17.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, displaying more flashes of greatness than 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher showed all of last season. Plus, Davis returned to the court after missing nearly a month with a calf strain and has been his typically spectacular two-way self. Dallas still has an awkward roster and would benefit from eventually trading Davis, but at least the arrow is pointed in the right direction.
Utah, too, has out-performed preseason expectations: the Jazz are already halfway to their preseason win total barely a quarter of the way through the season and have picked up three wins in their last five games. Utah is led by a player I didn’t even mention in my preseason breakdown: Keyonte George, who lost his starting job to Isaiah Collier midway through the 2024-25 season but has reclaimed it with force, averaging 22.9 points and 6.8 assists per game, including a 39-point masterpiece on Friday against the Memphis Grizzlies. Lauri Markkanen has also been healthy and spectacular, averaging 27.6 points per game, and most of the younger players — save for Cody Williams — have shown flashes. The Jazz may still be several seasons away from proper contention, especially in a loaded West, but Utahns have to feel fairly confident about the franchise’s future.
Mavericks at Jazz pick, best bet
This game hinges heavily on Davis’ health, as the Mavericks have had the equivalent of the league’s 12th-best offense with him on the floor and its third-worst without him. Plus, while Dallas has been better on defense with Davis off the floor so far, that’s heavily influenced by a small sample size, and I’d expect his overall on-off splits to improve in the long term. The Mavericks have also rebounded better, distributed the ball better, and committed fewer turnovers with Davis than they have without him. Gafford, who has played just 14 total minutes since November 28 because of his injury, has had a similar impact. Regardless, given Dallas’ lack of depth at center with Dereck Lively II out for the season, both bigs’ lengthy injury histories, and the fact the Mavericks have two days off before a home game on Thursday, I’d guess that at least one will sit. At high elevations — the Delta Center is at 4,265 feet — blood carries less oxygen to the muscles, leading to increased injury risk.
If one of the two bigs plays, they have been roughly interchangeable in terms of rim protection. In the month of November, in which Davis played just 29 minutes and Gafford played in all but two games, the Mavericks allowed the ninth-most made field goals in the restricted area, and so far in December, teams have attempted and made slightly fewer shots at the rim with Davis (but not Gafford) lurking, though the differences are minuscule. Either way, that shouldn’t matter too much against a Utah team that gets downhill at the league’s third-worst rate and converts at the ninth-lowest percentage once it gets there. Offensively, Dallas has averaged two more shots per game at the rim with Davis as the main big than it did with Gafford, but either should be able to punish the Jazz inside: they’ve allowed the fewest shot attempts in the restricted area, but opponents have been able to finish at the second-highest rate from both the restricted area and from floater range. Utah also fouls a little bit too much.
Another key for the Mavericks will be transition play, with the Jazz allowing the fifth-most points off of turnovers and 11th-most fast-break points, and so far, Dallas has been an elite transition offense, especially with Davis on the floor. The Mavericks should also be well-suited to stop Utah’s three-pointer-reliant offense, given that it has conceded the second-fewest uncontested looks, and individually, Davis ranks ninth in contested threes per game. Just about the only offensive key that doesn’t go in Dallas’ favor is the fact that the Jazz have allowed the most uncontested threes, but the Mavericks have been poor at generating wide-open looks and even worse at knocking them down.
Home court advantage could matter quite a bit — Utah has been 9.4 points per 100 possessions better at the Delta Center, even after its road win in Memphis, and Dallas is 5.3 points per 100 possessions better at home — but the more sustainable difference between tonight’s game and last Friday’s is that the Grizzlies weren’t well-suited to take advantage of the Jazz’s weaknesses or mitigate its strengths, and with or without Davis, the Mavericks are. I’d pick Utah at home over a different team of similar quality but different strengths — say, the Sacramento Kings — but Dallas should cover the spread tonight.
Best bet: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-105)