A compelling nonconference showdown awaits as the No. 11 Louisville Cardinals venture into hostile territory to battle the No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers at Thompson-Boling Arena. The Cardinals arrive in Knoxville riding high with an impressive 9-1 record, but they’ll face a motivated Tennessee squad desperate to snap a 3-game skid. The Volunteers enter at 7-3 and hungry to defend their home court where they’ve been perfect this season.
This game is set to tip off at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday night and can be seen on ESPN.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Tennessee Volunteers Odds
Here’s how the betting market shapes up for this SEC-ACC showdown, courtesy of BetMGM:
Odds subject to change
The oddsmakers clearly respect Thompson-Boling Arena’s home-court advantage, installing Tennessee as 3.5-point favorites despite Louisville’s superior record. The Volunteers’ -161 moneyline translates to roughly 59.2% implied probability after removing the vig, while the Cardinals sit at 40.8% – a reflection of both Tennessee’s desperation and venue advantage.
Statistical Breakdown: Louisville vs. Tennessee
This matchup perfectly illustrates the classic basketball chess match between explosive offense and disciplined defense, with each team’s statistical profile telling a distinct story:
The numbers reveal Louisville’s offensive juggernaut averaging a blistering 94.3 points per game, creating that +26.2 scoring margin that’s made its games look like video game simulations. However, that dominance comes with an asterisk – their 0.507 strength of schedule suggests they’ve been feasting on lesser competition.
Tennessee’s path has been considerably rockier, evidenced by its 0.568 SOS rating that’s battle-tested the Vols against legitimate competition. The Volunteers already own a quality win over a Top 50 RPI opponent, something Louisville is still chasing. Tennessee’s calling card remains their stingy defense allowing just 66 points per game, the kind of unit that can disrupt rhythm and force opponents into uncomfortable possessions.
Best Bet: Tennessee -3.5
While Louisville’s gaudy 9-1 record screams bet-the-favorite, the situational dynamics strongly favor backing Tennessee -3.5 (-110) in this spot.
The Volunteers are precisely where SEC teams thrive — desperate, at home, and facing a talented opponent that hasn’t been truly tested in hostile territory. Thompson-Boling Arena has been Tennessee’s fortress this season (5-0), and there’s no better elixir for a 3-game slide than facing a Cardinals team that’s 0-1 on the road.
Expect Rick Barnes to have his squad locked in defensively, using crowd energy to disrupt Louisville’s offensive flow and force the Cardinals into the kind of half-court grind that hasn’t defined their season. The Volunteers need this game more, have home-court advantage, and possess the defensive chops to make life difficult for a Cardinals offense that has already lost a game when it has faced this level of resistance in a hostile environment.
Take Tennessee -3.5 and trust the SEC program to defend its home court when it matters most.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.