The Houston Rockets (16-8) play the third game of their 6-game road trip with a visit to the Denver Nuggets (20-6) Saturday. Tip-off from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, is set for 5 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Rockets. vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Denver leads 2-0.
Houston was handed a 133-128 OT loss by the Pelicans in New Orleans on Thursday while failing to cover as a 9.5-point road favorite and the Over (236) was smashed. Kevin Durant dropped 32 on just 15 shots, but he also finished with 6 of his team’s 20 turnovers in the loss. The Rockets were up 25 as late as the third quarter but were dominated 36-20 in the final quarter of regulation before collapsing and scoring just 9 points in overtime.
Denver picked up a 126-115 win over the Orlando Magic on Thursday to cover as a 4.5-point home favorite with the Over (238) hitting. Jamal Murray scored 32 points and Nikola Jokic finished with a 23-point triple-double as the duo dominated in the win. The Nuggets have won 6 straight.
The Nuggets have beaten the Rockets by exactly 3 points in both matchups this season. Most recently, the Nuggets came away with a 128-125 OT win at home over Houston in a game where Jokic finished with a 39-point triple-double. Denver (+1) covered and the Over (237.5) hit. These teams are seeing each other for the second time in just 6 days in this matchup.
Rockets at Nuggets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Rockets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Nuggets +100 (bet $100 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Rockets -1.5 (-110) | Nuggets +1.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 235.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Rockets at Nuggets key injuries
Rockets
F Tari Eason (leg) outF Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) outG Fred VanVleet (knee) out
Nuggets
G Christian Braun (ankle) outF Aaron Gordon (hamstring) outF Peyton Watson (trunk) questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Rockets at Nuggets picks and predictionsPrediction
Rockets 106, Nuggets 102
PASS
Because of late line movement, I am skipping the moneyline and taking the better odds with the spread.
BET ROCKETS -1.5 (-110).
Houston is too good a team to continuously be beaten by the same opponent, especially when that opponent is missing two usual starters. Because of the injuries, the line swung enough to make the Rockets the favorite. Nonetheless, expect Houston to use its defense to create offense and limit Denver’s second-chance opportunities here as Jokic won’t let them get many of those opportunities.
Despite the Rockets now carrying a -1.5 (-110) price, I expect them to cover. Plus, Houston has already lost to Denver by a 1-score margin twice this season and I don’t like the odds of that happening here for a third straight time.
LEAN UNDER 235.5 (-110).
The Under has hit in 5 of Houston’s last 6 wins overall and has hit in 4 of its last 5 wins against the Nuggets.
If the Rockets want to win this game, the defense and rebounding that they pride themselves on have to show up. The Nuggets are without their two best defenders, so this is the time for the Rockets’ defense to lock in and take advantage of a team that you won’t get many chances to beat up on.
This is a lean because the Over is 9-1 in Denver’s last 10 overall and because the Over has hit in 4 straight games for the Rockets.
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