Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat picks take center stage Tuesday night as bettors hunting value in NBA predictions sort through injuries, recent regression, and a market that has steadily moved toward the home side.
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Terms & Conditions Quick Picks and Prediction Spread Pick: Miami -5.5 Total Pick: Under 228.5 Projected Final Score: Heat 114, Raptors 107 Odds and Line MovementOpening Odds Team Spread Toronto +4.5 Miami -4.5 Total Over Under 227 -110 -110 Current Odds Team Spread Toronto +5.5 (-110) Miami -5.5 (-110) Total Over Under 228.5 -110 -110 Line Movement – Spread Date Toronto Miami 12/22 +4.5 (-110) -4.5 (-110) 12/23 +5.5 (-110) -5.5 (-110) Line Movement – Total Date Over Under 12/22 227 (-110) 227 (-110) 12/23 228.5 (-110) 228.5 (-110) Key Matchups and Handicap
This Eastern Conference matchup is less about recent win streaks and more about roster availability and how those absences impact efficiency on both ends. Toronto and Miami have followed similar arcs this season, each surging early before cooling off significantly over the past few weeks.
The most important matchup edge belongs to Miami in the frontcourt. Toronto is without Jakob Poeltl, and that absence shows up immediately in rim protection, defensive rebounding, and half-court screening. Against a Miami team that is comfortable grinding out possessions, winning the glass and controlling tempo becomes decisive.
Toronto also enters short-handed on the wing, losing a downhill scorer and secondary creator. That shifts more responsibility onto the remaining perimeter options and makes it harder to consistently generate paint touches. Miami, even without its primary perimeter scorer, is built to survive these situations by manufacturing points through rebounding, free throws, and half-court execution.
The previous meeting between these teams ended 106-96, reinforcing that when transition chances are limited, this matchup slows down considerably. With Toronto missing key pieces, Miami is positioned to dictate pace again.
Betting Trends (TOR and MIA) Toronto is 3-7 over its last 10 games after opening the season on a strong run. Miami has dropped eight of its last 10 games but continues to draw market respect at home. The most recent head-to-head matchup stayed well under the total. The spread has moved more than a full point toward Miami since opening. Key Injuries and Notes (TOR and MIA) Toronto is without RJ Barrett (out). Jakob Poeltl remains out for Toronto. Miami is without Tyler Herro. Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic, and Pelle Larsson are all out for Miami. ATS and Total Picks Against the Spread: Miami -5.5 Over Under: Under 228.5 Final Score Prediction
Miami’s ability to control the interior and slow the game down late gives the Heat the edge at home.
Miami 114, Toronto 107
How to Bet
This matchup sets up best as a correlated side and total play. Laying the points with Miami aligns with the injury-based matchup advantage, while the under benefits from Toronto’s missing scoring and Miami’s preference for half-court possessions.
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