The Washington Wizards visited the Charlotte Hornets with a better than theoretical chance of emerging with a win, and they kept things close for much of the night. And then, they got avalanched in the final period to lose, 126-109.
While the Wizards led by as much as 10 early in the second quarter, it never felt like they were causing the scoring differential. The Hornets got open looks, which they missed. Charlotte was just 3-14 (21.4%) from three in the first quarter, but the Wizards defense was causing little stress. It was a case of the other guy just missing, and it felt like the tide would turn when the shots dropped at a more normal rate.
Wizards big man Alex Sarr rejects a Kon Knueppel layup attempt. Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images
In the second quarter, Charlotte began to assert itself, primarily due the offensive rebounding exploits of Moussa Diabate. He finished the game with a career-high 18 rebounds, 8 on the offensive glass.
In the first half, the Wizards allowed the Hornets an offensive rating (points scored per possession x 100) of 129 — an astounding number considering Charlotte’s poor shooting (48.1% effective field goal percentage). The Wizards made that possible by giving up so many offensive rebounds and their (continued) inability to force turnovers. Charlotte had just two in the first half.
And no, this isn’t a case where the Hornets are really good at avoiding turnovers. They entered the game 26th in offensive turnover percentage. To put it simply, Wizards defenders do not stress opposing ball handlers in any meaningful way.
After their poor start from the floor, the Hornets ended the game with an eFG% of 55.9%. The Wizards? Just 46.4%. Washington still managed above average efficiency because they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds and committed just six turnovers.
Still, the inability to defend effectively and gather defensive boards send the Wizards to another defeat and lowers their record to 5-23.
One positive moment in the first half was some defensive communication between Kyshawn George and Marvin Bagley III. Charlotte ran an action that had the two inverted — Bagley defending on the wing and George in the middle. They called it out to each other and switched seamlessly while Charlotte was getting organized out top.Not so positive: the Wizards switched to zone late in the first quarter, and the Hornets shredded it.Bilal Coulibaly led the Wizards with 11 points in the first half on 4-8 shooting. He’d finish with 14 points, including 3-9 from three.The Hornets clearly were willing to concede threes to Coulibaly.Washington’s highlight of the night: Alex Sarr got switched onto Knueppel and was immediately administered a blow-by drive. Knueppel got to the rim and laid it up only for Sarr to block the shot off the backboard. It should be on the NBA’s Top 10 Plays rundown tomorrow.Add Dell Curry to the (long) list of opposing team commentators who marvel at the Wizards’ shot selection — and not in a good way.Miserable night for Kyshawn George, who scored just 2 points on 1-9 shooting and committed three turnovers. He was fortunate to not be ejected for a reckless foul he committed in the first quarter on LaMelo Ball. Playing physical is good. Fouling when you’ve been beaten isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Knocking a guy into the first row? Uncalled for.Khris Middleton can still get buckets. The reason he won’t fetch a trade return from a contending team is that he’s a defensive sieve.Corey Kispert returned to action for the first time since fracturing the tip of his thumb almost a month ago. He looked about the same as he did before the injury, which isn’t bad.When Justin Champagnie enters the game, the Wizards start getting rebounds.Coulibaly had a 25.5% usage rate. At one point, he has hollering at McCollum for a kickout pass. McCollum took the shot.Bub Carrington committed three fouls in his first three minutes of action. He finished with four fouls in 15 minutes.
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)FOUR FACTORSWIZARDSHORNETSLGAVGeFG%46.4%55.9%54.3%OREB%32.7%31.1%26.3%TOV%6.4%4.3%13.0%FTM/FGA0.1960.2370.218PACE93100.1ORTG117135115.6
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-Marvin Bagley III214117319.8%4.7171-5Justin Champagnie193816916.1%3.2167-7Alex Sarr254812614.8%0.8129-11Khris Middleton224314622.0%2.8137-12Tre Johnson214211621.9%0.013210Bilal Coulibaly234610625.5%-1.1100-11Bub Carrington153016512.8%1.9111-4CJ McCollum33659522.8%-3.137-17Corey Kispert132612527.4%0.7833Will Riley2410431.8%-0.256-1Malaki Branham6119425.2%-0.62-7Tristan Vukcevic240.0%0.00-1Anthony Gill240.0%0.00-1AJ Johnson24015.9%-0.8-180-1Kyshawn George31615217.8%-6.9-84-20HORNETSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-LaMelo Ball254815431.3%5.831820Moussa Diabate36702179.2%6.521138Sion James244618218.6%5.7249-7Brandon Miller305912922.1%1.818332Collin Sexton163114726.3%2.62219Kon Knueppel285511623.4%0.010713Tidjane Salaun224210122.7%-1.4113-9Josh Green11221859.7%1.5180-6Miles Bridges34659720.2%-2.4456Pat Connaughton130.0%0.00-2Liam McNeeley130.0%0.00-2Tre Mann12237316.7%-1.6-51-7