The Toronto Raptors earned an early Christmas present with their 112-91 win over the Miami Heat in a meeting of two teams in respective tail spins, each struggling to score.
The Raptors came to Miami having lost eight of their last 11, while the Heat had lost eight of their last 10. Toronto might be lining itself up for another Christmas present as it tries to sort out its shortage of size behind Jakob Poeltl (more on that in the takeaways below).
Meanwhile, the Raptors snapped out of their funk thanks to some quality defensive effort — the second time in eight days that their one-on-one defence on the ball was too much for the Heat in Miami. They also got some fantastic production at all levels of the lineup.
Toronto was without Poeltl (back) for the 11th time this season and third straight game, if you include the Raptors’ loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday when Poeltl played just six minutes. The Raptors were 4-6 in those games coming into Tuesday night. Against the Heat, they found a formula that worked brilliantly even with Poeltl on the sidelines. Toronto led early, and apart from a brief stretch over the middle of the first and start of the second quarter, when they missed 13 consecutive threes, the Raptors controlled the game most of the night.
They led by seven at halftime and pushed that advantage to 15 to start the third quarter and never faltered in the fourth. Sandro Mamukelashvili continued his strong play starting in Poeltl’s absence. At 6-foot-9, he’s not the interior defender or rebounder that Poeltl is, but he brings a level of spacing and dynamism to the Raptors offence that helps offset his lack of size. Mamukelashvili finished with 14 points (while shooting 4-of-6 on threes), six rebounds and a career-high seven assists.
As the Raptors continued to brick from deep, Jamison Battle was dusted off from the bench and continued his argument for more consistent playing time as he once again provided microwave offence, chipping in 11 points in 15 minutes while making all four of his field goal attempts, including three threes on as many tries. He’s shooting 48 per cent from deep on the season.
But perhaps the biggest single factor in the Raptors heading into a brief Christmas break — they play in Washington on Boxing Day — was Scottie Barnes‘ determination to be Scottie Barnes. After a pair of unusually poor efforts in losses to Boston and Brooklyn, where he took only three shots at the rim (and made just one) while also going 2-of-10 from the paint, Barnes was clearly making a point of using his physical tools to live at the basket.
He finished with 27 points, eight rebounds and four assists on 8-of-14 shooting while making 7-of-8 free throws. Eighteen of his points came at the rim. He was too much for the Heat. He headed to the post repeatedly, exploiting mismatches at every chance, and was rewarded with multiple three-point play opportunities while generating triples by pitching the ball back out for shots from Battle and Immanuel Quickley (18 points on 5-of-15 shooting, 1-of-8 from deep as his shooting woes continue) on consecutive possessions in the fourth as the Raptors pulled away.
It was the kind of effort that makes the games where Barnes plays more passively stand out. But the Raptors needed a win, and Barnes got them a win, with plenty of help from his friends. Toronto held Miami to 40 per cent shooting while connecting on 48 per cent of their own chances and improved to 18-13, moved into a tie for fourth, with Philadelphia, in the Eastern Conference.
The Raptors get a couple of days off over Christmas. They might have their starting centre back by then, and maybe even some backup help too
The Raptors have to do something at centre
I spoke about this on the pre-game show with Brad Fay: the Raptors need some help. The reasons are many, and it’s too simple to distil Jakob Poeltl’s value to the Raptors to a single statistical measure, but the simplest fix available likely focuses on giving the Raptors a better chance to compete on the glass when Poeltl isn’t on the floor.
For the season, Raptors opponents have grabbed just 23.3 per cent of the available offensive rebounds when Poeltl is on the floor (per Basketball Reference), which is well below league average and equivalent to the 24th-best offensive rebounding rate in the league. But when Poeltl sits or can’t play — a growing concern given he missed his 10th game of the season Tuesday night — the Raptors, collectively, have alligator arms and wear mittens. Their opponents grab 28.6 per cent of their own misses. That rate would be fifth-best in the league.
The “Poeltl swing” of 5.3 per cent from when he’s off the floor to when he’s on puts the big Austrian in the 95th percentile of difference-makers across the league, according to CleaningTheGlass. And rebounding seems to mean a lot, generally, to the Raptors’ success. As Darko Rajakovic said when the Raptors lost the game and the rebounding battle to Boston on Saturday night: “(The Celtics) got 17 offensive rebounds and 23 second chance points, the game was there. Because of that, we were not able to get stops and run and then play our style of basketball.”
Through 30 games before facing the Heat, the Raptors were 5-10 when they grabbed at least half of the available rebounds and 12-3 when they got more than 50 per cent of them. Toronto won the rebounding battle decisively against Miami (50-40 overall and 15-10 on the offensive glass), and the scoreboard reflected it.
For the time being, let’s forget about the big shiny objects out there, which may not even be available, or where the acquisition cost could be such that you create more issues fixing a problem than you had in the first place.
If Anthony Davis, Domantas Sabonis or even Ivica Zubac (another name that has come up lately if the woeful Los Angeles Clippers go into sell-off mode) gets traded, the cost will be high, and it most likely won’t happen until much closer to the Feb. 5th trade deadline. The Raptors have 21 games between now and then. They can’t wait.
Even turning to depth options — players who could carry some weight while Poeltl gets his back problems sorted out and be useful rotation-level contributors when he’s back — is a little complicated. Because, rest assured, the Raptors’ need for centre depth is not something that is known only locally. Toronto’s front office can ask about Gogo Bitadze, Nick Richards or Robert Williams, but knowing its needs, chances are Orlando, Phoenix and Portland, respectively, will be looking for a premium to make a trade at this stage, knowing that they can sell at cost closer to the deadline if need be.
So, they’re out of luck?
No, not exactly. There is the potential of a bridge-type solution, where the Raptors sign a centre now at minimal cost to tide them over until they can consider a more stable solution if still needed at the trade deadline. Most of the Raptors front office were in Orlando over the weekend watching the Raptors 905, Toronto’s affiliate team at the NBA G League’s Winter Showcase. The 905 lost in the Final — snapping a record 16-game win streak — to the Utah Jazz’s G League affiliate, but not all was lost as the Raptors got a front-row look at Mo Bamba, the enigmatic, though talented centre who was the 6th player taken in the 2018 draft by the Orlando Magic. And Bamba looked great.
He helped Salt Lake City to the Cup title by contributing 16.5 points on 68 per cent shooting while grabbing 15 rebounds (four offensive), dishing three assists and blocking two shots across the Semifinal and Final. He hit all of his free throws and two threes on three attempts. He’s shooting 40 per cent from distance for the season in the G League. That Bamba can play is no shock. A skilled seven-footer with a 7-foot-9 standing reach is simply too good for the G League. So what’s he doing flying commercial? Why has he bounced through five organizations in the three years since the Magic cut ties with their former lottery pick during the 2022-23 season?
I asked around, and the simplest answer is his on-court effort: his reputation is that the 27-year-old doesn’t try hard enough, often enough. “He has every tool necessary to be an elite player … but he will always be a tease, unfortunately,” was how one league executive put it.
All of which, from the Raptors’ point of view, is actually good news. No one I spoke to said he was a locker-room problem or had off-court issues that a team would have to be concerned about. But clearly, he wants to keep playing in the NBA, otherwise, why grind through the G League? There’s some motivation there, and based on how he’s performed this season and at the Showcase in particular, he can perform when the mood hits. And it’s not like the Raptors — or any team, likely — are going to sign Bamba to a long-term deal. The best case is that he gets a minimum deal guaranteed to the end of the season with an option for year two.
Under normal circumstances, the Raptors — or any team — might say, fine, we’ll sign you to a 10-day deal, and we’ll see how it all fits. But 10-day deals can’t be signed until Jan. 5th. The Raptors need help before that, and Bamba needs to perform to keep his career alive.
All of which sounds like a good fit, and a low-risk bet the Raptors should make.
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It will be interesting to see how much consideration the Raptors’ ninth overall pick will get for honours like the Rising Stars game at All-Star Weekend or first and second team all-rookie honours.
The 2025 class has proven to be an exceptionally deep draft with several of Murray-Boyles’ higher-profile peers getting and deserving their shine. The rookie might not have the gaudiest numbers — 6.8 points and 3.4 rebounds per game don’t turn heads (though his 55.6 shooting percentage, including 44.8 per cent from three, might) — but if you’re watching, it’s very clear he’s going to be a high-level player.
One reason is his exceptional set of hands. He can catch anything in his area — he had two rebounds on air balls on Tuesday, which isn’t easy. He had a couple of other great catches in traffic and collected a loose ball in the paint. And that’s without getting into his career-best nine offensive rebounds on his way to his first career double-double as he finished with 11 points, 12 rebounds and three steals. There will be many more to come, and hopefully enough this season that he gets the wider recognition he deserves.