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The NBA on Christmas Day slate is often treated like a second opening day for the league. With the NFL and college football starting to wind down, casual fans start to shift their attention more and more toward hoops.
For those who are looking to dive into the NBA for the holiday and beyond, this will serve as a refresher on what’s been going on in the league for the past two months from a betting lens.
Note: All stats listed are updated through Tuesday afternoon.
Unless you’ve been under a rock, you probably know that the Thunder are leading the NBA with a 26-3 record this season. They have dominated teams with a plus-16.1 point differential, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like an MVP again. While that makes them a tempting team to bet on, the value isn’t really there.
Sure, you could bet the Thunder moneyline, but you would be paying a premium to do it — their odds have been above -1000 11 times this season and as high as -3000. If you want to bet them against the spread, you would routinely be betting on them to cover double digits, and the Thunder are 16-13 (55.2%) ATS this season. Good, but certainly not the value you’d be looking for on a Wednesday night in January.
If you’re betting the spread, there are a few teams that stand out among the rest. The Pelicans, who are 13th in the Western Conference standings, are 19-10-1 ATS this season. They are losing games by 6.8 points per game, but are covering the spread by a point on average.
Derik Queen and the New Orleans Pelicans have been kind to spread bettors this year. Getty Images
The Pels don’t own their first-round pick this year, so they are incentivized to try and win as many as possible. Sportsbooks will try to adjust, but when the Pelicans are healthy (which is rare), they can be scrappy.
Speaking of scrappy, the Suns have the second-best ATS record this season at 18-10. A group that was missing its star player, Devin Booker, turned to Dillon Brooks and Collin Gillespie and didn’t miss a beat despite having the second-toughest strength of schedule so far this season.
Betting on the NBA?
If you’re wondering about the teams that are prone to pulling off upsets, look no further than the Bulls. The Bulls are 8-6 straight up as underdogs this season. Five teams have a better win percentage as underdogs — Pistons, Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets, and Spurs — but all of those teams are good and less likely to be listed as ‘dogs on a given night.
Tre Jones, Josh Giddey (3), and Nikola Vucevic (9) of the Chicago Bulls have been a volatile bunch for bettors. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
To call the Bulls streaky would be an understatement. They started the season 6-1, then fell to 9-14 and are now 13-15. That uncertainty means they can lose to the Nets as -325 favorites or beat the Nuggets as +575 underdogs. You’ve got to pick your spots with this team, but on the right night, they’ll make you believe.
Lastly, if you’re looking to bet Over/Unders, you’ll want to keep an eye on these two teams going forward. The Over in Jazz games is 18-10 this season and going over the total by 9.5 points per game. The Jazz offense is just below league average, but their defense is the second-worst in the league, allowing 122.3 points per 100 possessions.
The Raptors are on the other side of that coin. The Under is 19-11 in their games and falling short of the number by 6.4 points per game. The Raptors have a league-average offense and a defense that ranks sixth in the NBA, holding teams to 112.8 points per 100 possessions.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.