Only two more holiday wishes remain, including this one for Texas Tech fans, which is significant; if it were to come true, Red Raider fans would be ecstatic.

The Texas Tech men’s basketball team has had a challenging non-conference schedule this season. They have lost to three Power Four and ranked teams in Purdue, Arkansas, and Illinois but have given Duke and LSU their only losses of the season. The expectations have risen greatly following their win over No. 6-ranked Duke, and fans hope the team can achieve the ultimate goal.

Holiday Wish No. 2: The Texas Tech Red Raiders win the national championship in basketball for the first time in program history.

The closest the men’s basketball program came to winning a national title was in 2019 when they played No. 1 seed Virginia in the NCAA Tournament that year. Their path to the national championship game was challenging as they defeated No. 2 seed Michigan, No. 1 seed Gonzaga, and finally No. 2 seed Michigan State in the Final Four.

In the national championship game against Virginia, they trailed the Cavaliers at halftime but played well in the second half to tie the game and force overtime. The Red Raiders had a three-point lead with 13 seconds left in regulation but Virginia tied the game, which led the game into overtime. Texas Tech would end up losing the game in overtime and that was the closest the Red Raiders came to winning a national title.

Here is a look at the metrics and the resume Texas Tech is building to get a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Key Performance Indicator (KPI): #12

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): #23

NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET): #24

Pomeroy College Basketball (KenPom): 26

Quad-1-Record: 2-3

Quad-2-Record: 1-0

Quad-3-Record: 3-0

Key wins: Duke (neutral court), LSU (neutral court), Wyoming, and Wake Forest (neutral court)

Losses: Purdue (neutral court), Illinois (road), and Arkansas (neutral court)

This is how Texas Tech can win a national championship this season.

A college basketball team like the Red Raiders that wants to win a national championship normally needs a strong player to win six games in a row in March. JT Toppin is the player who can help the Red Raiders win the national championship. Toppin came back to Lubbock after earning Big 12 Player of the Year in 2024, and this season, he is a real candidate for National Player of the Year. He needs to keep up his double-double average (21.6 points and 10.5 rebounds per game) and stay out of foul trouble. The Red Raiders don’t have as many talented frontcourt players as they do guards, so he needs to be dominant down low on offense.

They need to maximize their offense by minimizing turnovers and securing offensive rebounds. Texas Tech has become one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking in the top 40 for Offensive Efficiency (ORtg). Tech creates significant opportunities for Toppin by having shooters like Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell.

To win a title, they need to keep their excellent assist-to-turnover ratio, which they are now in the top 55 in the country. In the NCAA Tournament’s single-elimination structure, it’s very important to keep “empty” possessions to a minimum. They have played a tough schedule, and the Big 12 schedule will be very difficult to navigate, but they will be tested and have many opportunities to improve on their assist-to-turnover ratio by the middle of March.

Even if the offense is historically good entering March, most championship teams employ a top-notch rim protector. Luke Bamgboye is the “X Factor” in this case. When he played with VCU last season, he averaged over 2 blocks per game. If Bamgboye can block shots at an exceptional level for 20 to 25 minutes, it lets the perimeter defenders be more active, turning a “good” defense into a “championship” defense. Toppin is also a solid shot blocker, averaging 1.6 blocks per game, and both of them must make their presence felt on defense.

The Red Raiders have a tough conference schedule with 18 conference games, four of which are on the road in Houston, Iowa State, BYU, and Arizona. To get a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Tech needs to finish in the top two in the Big 12. Statistically, a high seed is the best sign that a team will make it to the Final Four. They also need to stay healthy during the tough months of January and February, which is especially important for lead guard Christian Anderson, who runs the offense, and Toppin, who is the team’s star.

More From Texas Tech On SI

Stay up to date on Texas Tech Athletics by bookmarking Texas Tech On SI  and follow us on Twitter.