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The NBA’s 2025 Christmas slate concludes with a set of familiar opponents. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets were built by the same general manager, Tim Connelly. They faced off in the 2024 playoffs, where Minnesota ended Denver’s championship defense with a second-round upset. Every year, they seem to play in a thriller or two. Last year, the Timberwolves stole a double overtime victory on a terrible Russell Westbrook shooting foul.
Neither team is quite at its peak. Denver is still dealing with injuries to Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun. Minnesota is still adjusting to life without Nickeil Alexander-Walker. But these are still both Western Conference contenders, and any game between the two of them is a deserving marquee regular-season event. Below is our pick against the spread as well as the best prop bet for the Christmas finale.
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Jack Maloney
Timberwolves at Nuggets: Where to watchTime: 10:30 p.m. ET | Date: Thursday, Dec. 25Location: Ball Arena — DenverTV channel: ABC/ESPN | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)Odds: Nuggets -3.5, O/U: 238.5 (via BetMGM) Timberwolves at Nuggets: Prediction, odds, best bets
Denver’s depth has improved significantly this season, but the injuries are just becoming too much to overcome against a great opponent like Minnesota. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are still out, and on Tuesday, Cam Johnson suffered a knee injury that we don’t know the extent of yet, but should leave Denver without a third starter for at least some period of time. The Timberwolves always get up for Nuggets games and they’ve now won 10 of their last 12, including statement wins over the Knicks and Thunder. They’re the safer pick with the points. The Pick: Timberwolves +3.5
I’ll admit my instinct was to pick Nikola Jokić’s scoring over to account for his missing teammates, but no team limits his shot total better than Minnesota. Outside of his 61-point gem last season, which came without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and took two overtimes, Jokić has averaged just 15.4 shot attempts per game against Minnesota over the past two regular seasons. So I’m going the other way and expecting a more balanced offensive night for the three-time MVP. The Pick: Jokić Under 29.5 Points