Charlie Cummings breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for Thursday’s Christmas matchup between the Cavaliers and Knicks.

On Christmas Day this year, you’d better get an early start. Make your coffee, unwrap your presents, then get seated for the NBA Christmas games. The Cleveland Cavaliers will travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks to kick off our five-game slate.

New York is a -5.5 road favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. A Cavaliers upset is priced at +170, and the game’s total is set at 236.5 points. Let’s dig into the preview, prediction, and best pick for this Christmas Day Cavaliers vs. Knicks matchup.

Cavaliers vs. Knicks preview, prediction

After a 64-win 2024-25 season, the Cavs had another frustrating playoff exit last postseason against the Indiana Pacers. The feeling was that this season is the make-or-break year before major changes have to be made. So far, the dial is leading towards break.

Injuries have played a significant role. Max Strus has yet to play a game this year, Darius Garland has missed half of the season to date, and Evan Mobley is sidelined into early 2026. It’s a heavy burden on Donovan Mitchell to run the offense while Jarrett Allen tries to keep the defense intact. That has not worked. So far, the Cavs are 15-14 and would be in the Play-In Tournament if the season ended today. It’s a far cry from coasting to the No. 1 seed last season.

Meanwhile, the Knicks continue to take steps forward. Last season’s Eastern Conference Finals loss was a rough one, but it was another stepping stone towards a return to the NBA Finals. They shored up the depth, and their stars have continued to excel. With Mike Brown at the helm after Tom Thibodeau’s departure, there’s hope that the Knicks can get to the Finals for the first time in the 21st century.

Jalen Brunson is once again at the center of it all. New York’s All-NBA guard is averaging a career-high 29.1 points per game and is firmly in the MVP discussion. With his Knicks at 20-8 and sitting at second in the Eastern Conference, he can certainly make a case. A heap of clutch buckets in the fourth quarter won’t hurt.

Brunson has already led the Knicks to an NBA Cup victory and put them in position to collect more hardware this season. Can he put another feather in his cap with a Christmas Day win?

Cavaliers vs. Knicks pick, best bet

If this Cavs team were healthy, this would be a true heavyweight fight. But Mobley’s absence alone changes this game. Without him, the paint is far more open for Jalen Brunson and it’s a lot tougher to cover Karl-Anthony Towns on the perimeter. This Knicks offense will overwhelm Cleveland’s attack, and they have the defensive personnel to give Donovan Mitchell trouble, too. It’ll be a great day for Knicks fans at the Garden.

Best Bet: New York Knicks -5.5 (-108)