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There’s nothing better than a budding NBA rivalry getting the national spotlight, so we’re in for a treat on Christmas Day. The San Antonio Spurs head to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder just two days after soundly beating the reigning champions 130-110 in the Alamo City.
The Spurs (22-7) have handed the Thunder (26-4) half of their losses this season between Tuesday’s win and the NBA Cup semifinal upset, and have moved into second place in the Western Conference standings.
Those results, impressive as they are, have not swayed the sportsbooks much ahead of Thursday’s Christmas Day showdown. The Thunder are as much as 9.5-point favorites at home against the Spurs despite going 0-2 in their first two meetings.
Spurs vs. Thunder odds, prediction
Seeing the Thunder listed as near double-digit favorites is perplexing, given what we know.
It makes sense that oddsmakers expect a motivated Thunder team to avenge its past two losses to the Spurs, particularly in a nationally televised game, but the spread seems off. The Thunder were 10.5-point favorites on a neutral court in Las Vegas for the NBA Cup, 6.5-favorites on the road Tuesday night and are 9.5-point favorites at home.
I understand being skeptical of a two-point win on a neutral court, but Tuesday’s win should send a clear message about how good the Spurs are as a team. It should also be noted that Victor Wembanyama has played 43 minutes combined off the bench in both games and is a plus-33 in those minutes.
Spurs coach Mitch Johnson has smartly managed his superstar’s minutes since his return from injury, maximizing every second Wemby spends on the floor.
Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs celebrates during the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images
I have strong confidence in the defensive intensity of the Thunder and the offensive prowess of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren.
Still, the Spurs are gaining more confidence with every win, and as long as Wembanyama can play 20 minutes, his impact puts the Spurs on equal footing with the reigning NBA champions.
I’ll gladly take the Spurs to cover the spread at 9.5 and expect another competitive game between these two West contenders.
The Pick: Spurs +9.5 (-110, bet365)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.