San Antonio has already beaten Oklahoma City twice this season, which makes this Christmas rematch a strong setup for disciplined defense and a Thunder response. Our Spurs vs. Thunder Predictions focus on the Thunder Moneyline, a lower-scoring game, and two player props tied to defensive adjustments and usage.
*These suggestions are based on NBA game analysis, but sports results remain unpredictable.
Spurs vs. Thunder NBA Game Overview
The San Antonio Spurs enter at 21–7, second in the West, and riding a seven-game winning streak. That run includes a 130–110 win over Oklahoma City on December 24. San Antonio has also taken the earlier NBA Cup Semifinal, 111–109, giving them two wins in this series.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 26–4, the defending champions, and first in the conference. They remain dominant at home with a 14–1 record despite yesterday’s loss. Oklahoma City leads the league in three-pointers made and Defensive Rating, while San Antonio leans on elite rim protection. The Spurs recently slowed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by cutting off driving lanes. Victor Wembanyama has returned from injury but remains on a minutes limit. The Thunder are without Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber.
Thunder on the Moneyline
Oklahoma City rarely loses at Paycom Center, and they almost never stack poor defensive efforts at home. A 14–1 home record speaks for itself. Coming off a loss on Christmas increases focus and execution. San Antonio winning twice already adds urgency rather than fear. This profile supports a straight Moneyline play without needing a spread.
Under 235.5 Total Points
Yesterday’s score inflates the number. Rematches usually slow down as teams adjust. Oklahoma City will emphasize defense after allowing 130 points. San Antonio will again aim to control tempo and limit possessions. Both teams have defensive tools that matter more in a back-to-back. That combination points toward the under.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 Points
This line is aggressive. The Spurs already showed they can send help into driving lanes and force tougher looks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City can spread scoring to avoid forcing isolation plays. Defensive adjustments favor efficiency over volume. He can still control the game without clearing 32 points.
De’Aaron Fox Under 5.5 Assists
This prop is priced heavily for a reason. San Antonio leans on De’Aaron Fox as a scorer more than a distributor. Oklahoma City closes passing lanes well. With Wembanyama limited, assist opportunities stay capped. The odds reflect probability, and the logic supports the under.