Griffin Wong previews tonight’s NBA Christmas Day game between Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers with his favorite player prop bets.

It’s the most wonderful time of the year to be an NBA fan: Christmas Day. The nonstop basketball action will be on until 1 a.m. ET, with the New York Knicks-Cleveland Cavaliers matchup already settled and the San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder matchup set to conclude soon. Next up on the slate is a clash between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the Houston Rockets visiting the Los Angeles Lakers at 8 p.m. ET.

Both of these teams will be seeking some redemption, as each lost badly on Tuesday night, with the Lakers falling to the Phoenix Suns and the Rockets to the LA Clippers.

For Los Angeles, Luka Dončić is expected to return after missing the blowout defeat against Phoenix with a calf contusion, as is Rui Hachimura, who’s missed the last two games with a groin strain.

Houston is a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-155 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 229.5. The Lakers are +130 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve detailed my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s potential Western Conference playoff preview.

Luka Dončić U33.5 Points (-115)

Fading Dončić might be a terrible idea, given that he has a knack for stepping up in big moments and has the second-highest Christmas Day scoring average of any modern player despite suffering a calf strain just 16 minutes into his final game with the Dallas Mavericks in 2024. Given that his injury is a contusion with no structural damage, it should be a matter of pain management more than anything that would impact his mobility, and Los Angeles clearly needs any points that he might be able to provide. Still, the season is long, and it wouldn’t be a massive surprise for the Lakers to play him, say, 32 or 33 minutes instead of the 36.6 he’s averaging.

Plus, despite being just a fringe top-10 unit overall and the eighth-worst over the last 10 games, the Rockets’ defense has the tools to slow down Dončić, from an athletic wing in Amen Thompson to a pair of capable rim protectors in Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest makes from the restricted area, and that’s where Dončić is the most dangerous, as the second-most clinical finisher among the 204 players who have attempted at least two such shots per game. He’s historically had a tough time against Thompson, scoring just seven points on two-for-10 shooting in 37.4 partial possessions against him across their two matchups last season. Houston also plays at the third-slowest pace.

Alperen Şengün to Record a Double-Double (+143)

To be fair, the glass is one place where Los Angeles has excelled, allowing the second-fewest rebounds per game, in part because it shoots the second-highest percentage from the field while allowing the fifth-highest and in part because it plays at the eighth-slowest pace. The raw numbers slightly exaggerate the Lakers’ prowess in that aspect: by total rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage, they rank merely 10th (18th by offensive rebounding percentage), while the Rockets easily lead the league in both offensive and total rebounding percentage. Houston has the league’s highest contested rebound percentage, while Los Angeles is below-average.

All of that could work in Şengün’s favor. He’s had 15 double-doubles in 25 starts (-150 implied odds), including six in his last eight games and five in nine games against the Lakers in the past three seasons. He could be especially effective on the boards if Houston is able to force Dončić into step-back threes instead of letting him drive to the basket or fouling him: of the 18 players who have played at least 20 games and averaged at least 15 rebound chances per game, Şengün’s average board has come the fourth-furthest away from the basket, suggesting that more of his boards have come from missed jumpers than missed layups. Plus, in double-big lineups, Los Angeles will have to guard him with a shorter player like Hachimura or LeBron James, who he should be able to box out for the board.

LeBron James 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-118)

It’s finally happened: approaching his 41st birthday and in his 23rd NBA season, James is a proper third option. Since he’s been more passive on the ball and allowed Dončić and Austin Reaves to take on primary ball-handling duties, he’s also attempted threes at the fifth-highest rate of his career, with long shots accounting for 31.0% of his attempts (though he’s also connecting on them at the third-lowest clip). All in all, he’s made two or more triples in six of his 12 games, including each of his last two. Dončić’s presumed return should help him: he’s averaged 1.1 three-point attempts per game on passes from the Slovenian alone, as well as an additional 1.1 on passes from Reaves.

The Rockets have had a decent three-point defense, allowing the 11th-fewest makes on the 10th-lowest percentage, but there’s an aspect of luck to that: they’ve allowed the sixth-most threes with the nearest defender at least six feet away, and while James isn’t exactly a sniper, 38.9% on such shots is enough to inspire confidence. With Thompson — his primary defender in 2024-25 — likely to shadow Dončić for much of the night, Houston will likely instead choose to put Durant on James, and the Slim Reaper would surely dare James into shooting before challenging one of his drives. In 2023-24, six of James’ nine shot attempts when guarded by Durant were triples.