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As the world descends into a chaotic mess, I give thanks that we have college basketball to distract us from the nightmare that is reality.
We’ve reached February. The stretch run of college basketball’s regular season is upon us. Resumes will be polished and conference championships will be won. Unfortunately for some programs, February will also be the month that their chances of winning the NCAA tournament officially go up in smoke as they are eliminated from their conference tournament fields.
There are 364 teams competing in Division I men’s basketball this season. Almost one for every single day of the year. I would say I love each and every one of our 364 programs equally, but… points at the New Jersey schools. Once again, I will be attempting* to count down from 364 to our 1 national champion as teams get eliminated this season.
*until I get bored of doing so during the NCAA Tournament
We start off this season’s countdown with an acknowledgement that our real starting number for this season is 355. A total of nine programs are still in NCAA jail as they work to complete their transition to Division I.
Minnesota’s best Division I team, the St. Thomas Tommies, will have to wait until 2026 for their inaugural season as a member of the Never Made the Tournament Club (NMTC). Since the Tommies transitioned all the way from Division III, they are sitting on the sidelines for a 5th straight season.
This is a photo of last season’s club, but I’m willing to bet that if I didn’t say anything nobody would notice. Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
In 2027 the Queens Royals, Stonehill Skyhawks, Lindenwood Lions, Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles, and East Texas A&M Lions will join the postseason eligible programs. For those keeping track at home, East Texas A&M was formerly known as Texas A&M-Commerce before changing their university name after their first game of the 2024-25 college basketball season. Hopefully the uniform changes weren’t too expensive.
They call themselves the Skyhawks, but it’s their opponents that are soaring through the sky Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
2028 will see one new program eligible when the Le Moyne Dolphins join the field of Northeast Conference teams that will scare myself and other Purdue fans.
Our final two ineligible teams are new to Division I this season so let’s take a moment to introduce them.
The West Georgia Wolves joined the Atlantic Sun conference after leaving the Gulf South Conference of Division II behind. The Wolves won the 1974 NAIA tournament championship and have been competing in NCAA Division II since 1975. During that time, they’ve made twenty Division II tournaments and advanced as far as the Elite 8 in 2002. The University of West Georgia is located in Carrollton, Georgia and the Wolves play their games at the 6,469 capacity arena known as The Coliseum. They are led by 7th year head coach Dave Moore.
Our database pictures of West Georgia are over a decade old and naturally have an SEC team playing them. Never stop playing teams from a lower division, SEC. Kelly Lambert-Imagn Images
Our other newbie is the Mercyhurst Lakers who have joined the Northeast Conference. The Erie, Pennsylvania school has been a recent mainstay in the NCAA Division II tournament making the field 7 times since their first appearance in 2015. Mercyhurst’s best Division II tournament finish was a 2019 Elite 8. The Lakers are coached by Gary Manchel who is in his 23rd season running the program. Manchel started his coaching career as an assistant at Michigan favorite Slippery Rock. He was also previously the head coach at then Division II UMass-Lowell and has been an assistant at Yale and Ohio. The Mercyhurst University Lakers play their home games in the 1,100 capacity Mercyhurst Athletic Center.
Lebron doesn’t play for these Lakers. Bronny might have been able to make their roster though. Photo by Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Of our 355 NCAA tournament eligible programs, all 355 remain eligible as the calendar has turned to February. Eleven conferences (including our very own Big Ten) will prevent a combined total of 33 teams from participating in their respective conference tournaments. Because these eleven conferences include five teams that are ineligible for the NCAA postseason (but eligible for their conference postseason), somewhere between 28 and 33 teams will be eliminated in the regular season.
For the rest of the season, on Mondays* we will be tracking the respective races to make the tournament field cutline in the Ivy League, Mid-American Conference (MAC), Ohio Valley Conference, Southland Conference, Big West, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC), Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big Ten, Atlantic Sun, Southwest Athletic Conference (SWAC), and America East.
*pending availability of your writer
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Here’s where things stand entering February 3.
Ivy League – 14 game season
8 teams
4 teams make the conference tournament field
Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images
4th – Dartmouth Big Green (3-3)
—————CUTLINE—————
5th – Brown Bears (2-4)
6th – Harvard Crimson (2-4)
7th – Penn Quakers (2-4)
8th – Columbia Lions (0-6)
The Ivy is approaching the halfway point of league play, but each team will play just one game next weekend. Harvard v Dartmouth (Saturday) promises to be important.
12 teams
8 teams make the conference tournament field
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
5th – Kent State Golden Flashes (4-5)
6th- Central Michigan Chippewas (4-5)
7th – Ball State Cardinals (4-5)
8th – Western Michigan Broncos (4-5)
—————CUTLINE—————
9th – Eastern Michigan Emus Eagles (4-5)
10th – Bowling Green Falcons (2-7)
11th – Buffalo Bulls (2-7)
12th – Northern Illinois Huskies (1-8)
I’m not working through five way tiebreakers this early in the season, so I’ll put EMU in 9th for now since they have an incorrect nickname. The MAC has conference games this Tuesday before interrupting MACtion with the second round of the MAC-Sun Belt challenge on Saturday. The Sun Belt played their home games in round one back in early November and took an 8-4 lead.
Southland – 20 game season
12 teams
8 teams make the conference tournament field
Go Vaqueros! Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images
8th – Texas Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros ( 5-6)
—————CUTLINE—————
9th – Incarnate Word Cardinals (4-7)
10th – Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (2-9)
11th – New Orleans Privateers (2-9)
12th – East Texas A&M Lions (1-10)
East Texas A&M is NCAAT ineligible but allowed to participate in the Southland Conference tournament if they make the field. That currently looks unlikely. Never Made the Tournament Club supporters will be rooting for UTRGV and Incarnate Word to make the field. The Southland plays exclusively on Mondays and Saturdays.
Ohio Valley – 20 game season
11 teams
8 teams make the conference tournament field
Western Illinois Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images
7th – Tennessee Martin Skyhawks (5-7)
8th – Lindenwood Lions (5-7)
—————CUTLINE—————
9th – Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (4-8)
10th – Eastern Illinois Panthers (4-8)
11th – Western Illinois Leathernecks (2-10)
Lindenwood, Southern Indiana are NCAAT ineligible, but the OVC will allow them to play in Evansville if they qualify. Western Illinois has gone from a game out of a regular season championship last season to last place. The Leathernecks are one of three OVC NMTC members (Tennessee Martin and SIU Edwardsville). A one-off Tuesday night game between Eastern Illinois and SIUE will be followed by full conference slates on Thursday and Saturday.
Big West – 20 game season
11 teams
8 teams make the conference tournament field
Don Monson no longer coaches for Long Beach State (or Minnesota) Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
8th – Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners (4-7)
—————CUTLINE—————
9th – Long Beach State Beach (3-8)
10th – Cal Poly Mustangs (2-9)
11th – Cal State Fullerton Titans (1-10)
You may remember Long Beach State as the program that fired their head coach prior to their conference tournament last season only to go on to win the Big West tournament. They now find themselves with a new coach and outside of the current Big West tournament field. Your NMTC rooting favorites are UC Riverside (currently in 3rd place and ruining dreams of a two-bid Big West) and UC San Diego (in second place in their inaugural NMTC year). Games are Thursday and Saturday this week.
13 teams
10 teams make the conference tournament field
Sacred Heart attempts to score against UConn Photo by Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images
9th – Rider Broncs (4-7)
10th – Fairfield Stags (4-7)
—————CUTLINE—————
11th – Niagara Purple Eagles (3-7)
12th – Saint Peter’s Peacocks (2-8) – GOOD!
13th – Canisius Golden Griffins (2-8)
Niagara sits a half game behind the cutline. Longtime NMTC members Quinnipiac and Sacred Heart look to be safely in the MAAC field at the moment alongside second year NMTC member Merrimack. The MAAC is a Thursday/Saturday league.
18 teams
15 teams make the conference tournament field
Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
15th – Virginia Cavaliers (3-8)
—————CUTLINE—————
16th – North Carolina State Wolfpack (2-8)
17th – Boston College Eagles (2-8)
18th – Miami Florida Hurricanes (1-10)
Interesting group of candidates at the moment. Coachless UVA remains a half game in front of the cutline, while coachless Miami Fluoride is lagging way behind in last place and a solid candidate to be the first high major team eliminated this season. For North Carolina State, so much for building off of last season’s Final Four run.
Big Ten – 20 game season
18 teams
15 teams make the conference tournament field
Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
15th – Penn State Nittany Lions (3-8)
—————CUTLINE—————
16th – Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-8)
17th – Northwestern Wildcats (3-8)
18th – Washington Huskies (2-8)
The collection of 8 loss teams in the Big Ten! Penn State has the head to head win over Northwestern so they get the 15th spot for now. Northwestern just lost Barnhizer for the season, while Washington eked out a win against Minnesota to stay in the running for 15th. Rutgers and Nebrasketball sit just one game ahead of this group. This race has two very important midweek games: Minnesota at Penn State on Tuesday night followed by Nebraska @ Washington on Wednesday.
12 teams
10 teams make the conference tournament field
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
10th – Central Arkansas Bears (2-8)
—————CUTLINE—————
11th – West Georgia Wolves (2-8)
12th – Bellarmine Knights (1-9)
Queens and West Georgia are NCAAT ineligible in the ASUN but like other conferences allowed to participate in the ASUN tournament. Central Arkansas has a head to head win over West Georgia but they play again February 20. Your three ASUN NMTC members are Central Arkansas, North Alabama, and Bellarmine who actually won the ASUN tournament in 2022 during their Division I transition phase.
12 teams
10 teams make the conference tournament field
Go Delta Devils! Photo by Aaron Baker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
10th – Prairie View A&M Panthers (3-6)
—————CUTLINE—————
11th – Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (1-8)
12th – Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions (0-8)
Mississippi Valley State and Arkansas Pine Bluff are the two worst teams in Division I according to KenPom and among the bottom three according to Torvik. I’ll be shocked if either of them makes the SWAC tournament. It should take MVSU longer to get eliminated than last year thanks to the SWAC changing their tournament format from 8 teams to 10 this season. The SWAC is primarily a Monday/Saturday league.
America East – 16 game season
9 teams
8 teams make the conference tournament field
NJIT guard Tariq Francis is watches Seton Hall forward dunk the ball Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
8th – New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders (2-6)
—————CUTLINE—————
9th – New Hampshire Wildcats (2-6)
The America East conference has several NMTC members thanks to Vermont dominating the league in recent years. Maine, New Hampshire, NJIT, and UMass Lowell have all never made the NCAA tournament. NJIT grabbed the home win over New Hampshire early this season, but the AE has a double round robin schedule and only Bryant, Maine, and Vermont have put any distance on the cutline.
364-363 – Mercyhurst Lakers, West Georgia Wolves (ineligible until 2029)362 – Le Moyne Dolphins (ineligible until 2028)361-357 – Queens Royals, Stonehill Skyhawks, Lindenwood Lions, Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles, East Texas A&M Lions (Ineligible until 2027)356 – St. Thomas Tommies (ineligible until 2026)