The Heat are -8.5 favorites vs. the Pacers
Total (Over/Under): 230.5 points
Watch the game on FSUN | FDIN
The Indiana Pacers visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL.
The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).
The Pacers vs Heat Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 15-16 against the spread, while the Heat are 16-14 against the spread.
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Pacers vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread
Total
Money
Pacers
Heat
Heat vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Saturday‘s game with 69.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pacers and Heat.
Heat vs Pacers Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 56.8% confidence.
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Pacers Best Bets for Tonight:
The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 60 of their last 98 games (+31.54 Units / 27% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have covered the 4Q Spread in 62 of their last 97 games (+21.90 Units / 20% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 100 games (+19.60 Units / 9% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 55 of their last 89 games (+16.13 Units / 16% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 51 of their last 85 games (+25.00 Units / 19% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 54 of their last 90 games (+22.35 Units / 19% ROI)
The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 54 of their last 85 games (+21.65 Units / 22% ROI)
The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 53 of their last 86 games (+17.25 Units / 17% ROI)
The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Indiana Pacers Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 15-16 (-2.6 Units / -7.62% ROI).
6-25 against the Moneyline (-20.4 Units / -53.4% ROI)
12-19 against the Over for game total points (-8.9 Units / -26.1% ROI)
19-12 against the Under for game total points (+5.8 Units / 17.01% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 16-14 (+0.6 Units / 1.76% ROI).
16-15 against the Moneyline (-1.7 Units / -3.27% ROI)
14-16 against the Over for game total points (-3.6 Units / -10.56% ROI)
16-14 against the Under for game total points (+0.6 Units / 1.76% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 91 games (-35.88 Units / -31% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 29 of their last 82 games (-28.99 Units / -27% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 32 of their last 84 games (-26.03 Units / -28% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 36 of their last 91 games (-25.40 Units / -24% ROI)
The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 88 games (-23.50 Units / -15% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Pacers:
The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 37 of their last 89 games (-30.00 Units / -20% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 34 of their last 89 games (-29.06 Units / -28% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 89 games (-28.10 Units / -22% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 27 of their last 74 games (-25.45 Units / -30% ROI)
The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 100 games (-25.20 Units / -22% ROI)
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Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Pacers have an eFG% of 47% on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%
The Pacers averaged 58.0 points in the paint per game (2,376 points/41 games) on the road in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Pacers averaged 29.0 points in the paint per game (2,374 points/82 games) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6
The Pacers have a TS% of 45% on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are 1-12 (.077) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .519
The Pacers are 2-16 (.111) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542
The Pacers are 1-19 (.050) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .458
The Pacers are 1-21 (.045) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .364
Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends
The Pacers have an eFG% of 47% on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%
The Pacers averaged 58.0 points in the paint per game (2,376 points/41 games) on the road in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Pacers averaged 29.0 points in the paint per game (2,374 points/82 games) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6
The Pacers have a TS% of 45% on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Pacers are 1-12 (.077) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .519
The Pacers are 2-16 (.111) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542
The Pacers are 1-19 (.050) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .458
The Pacers are 1-21 (.045) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .364
Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends
The Pacers have an eFG% of 47% on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%
The Pacers averaged 58.0 points in the paint per game (2,376 points/41 games) on the road in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7
The Pacers averaged 29.0 points in the paint per game (2,374 points/82 games) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6
The Pacers have a TS% of 45% on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Pacers are 1-12 (.077) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .519
The Pacers are 2-16 (.111) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542
The Pacers are 1-19 (.050) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .458
The Pacers are 1-21 (.045) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .364
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