When the 2023-24 Michigan Wolverines lost to the McNeese State Cowboys on Dec. 29 — uh oh — it may or may not have been rock bottom. That game put Juwan Howard’s squad at 6-7 (no meme intended); it would end 8-24. Howard was dismissed, and Dusty May has come in and done nothing but impress, so perhaps that moment was a necessary setback in order to actually move things forward.

While that was a dreadful season for Michigan, in hindsight that loss was not as embarrassing as it felt at the time. McNeese made the NCAA Tournament as a 12 seed that spring, then repeated as Southland Conference Champions again the next season, this time upsetting No. 5 seed Clemson. As the Cowboys return to Ann Arbor two years to the date, no one will be overlooking them this time around.

McNeese (10-2) at No. 2 Michigan (11-0)

Date & Time: Monday, Dec. 29, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: B1G+

Will Wade’s team was the deserving winner in that game two years ago, averaging 1.22 PPP and taking advantage of Michigan’s 15 turnovers. Terrance Williams, Dug McDaniel, and Olivier Nkamhoua all scored at least 17, but that was not enough to stave off the upset, especially with Shahada Wells putting up 30 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 5 steals. Yikes.

McNeese Shot Distribution: 67.0% 2PT (313th)

McNeese is a legit team, hovering around 60th in Kenpom and balanced on both sides of the ball. Starting backcourt Tyshawn Archie and Javohn Garcia both hit threes at rates over 38%, but as a team, this squad only attempts 20 shots from behind the arc a game, which would be a departure from Michigan’s past opponents. The three-ball can be a major component of an upset, but that is not this team’s preference nor skill set (34.2% accuracy).

The visitors can try their luck on the interior, but it will take a heroic shooting effort to win this one. The Wolverines do an excellent job forcing opponents to settle for jumpers, but honestly that feels more lucrative than trying to take on the bigs in the paint. McNeese has generally shot very well this year, but no defense on the schedule so far is anything like what it will see on Monday.

Michigan OReb: 35.0% (70th)

Typically we highlight Michigan’s (much improved) defensive rebounding, but how about some love for the efforts on the offensive glass? Offensive rebounding played a huge role in the TCU, San Diego State, and Auburn games, and is a big bonus when considering how few shots the Wolverines miss in general. Getting second chances over 35% of the time just seems unfair when there are such limited opportunities to take them.

Aday Mara and Morez Johnson should have a significant advantage in the paint. Jerrell Colbert and Paitok Machar may both be 6-foot-10, but neither is a great rebounder (nor significant contributor). McNeese is no pushover, but unfortunately may be physically pushed around in this one by the bigger opposition. The Cowboys’ two-point defense has been very stout, but second-chance points will be too much to overcome.