The year 2025 was good to the OKC Thunder.
OKC won its first championship in franchise history. It saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win regular-season and NBA Finals MVP. It began this season with a 24-1 record, tying 2015-16 Golden State for the best start to a campaign in NBA history.
And with a stacked roster that’s barely entering its prime, next year also figures to be a good one for OKC. Here are 26 bold predictions for the Thunder, and a few other teams around the league, for 2026:
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26 OKC Thunder predictions for 20261. Chet Holmgren will earn his first All-Star selection as an injury replacement
Initially, it looks like it’d be tough for Chet Holmgren to secure one of the 12 West All-Star spots. My eight locks are Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, Gilgeous-Alexander, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama. I would also go with Alperen Sengun, Devin Booker and Deni Avdija, leaving one spot left between players such as James Harden, Austin Reaves and Holmgren. And while my hypothetical vote would be for Holmgren because of his two-way impact and OKC’s strong play, I think Harden will be chosen to represent the Clippers in Inglewood, California. But with Jokic’s recent injury, I believe Holmgren will sneak in as an injury replacement.
2. Isaiah Joe will compete in the NBA’s All-Star 3-Point Contest
I’m trying to speak this one into existence. Joe is on pace to shoot at least 40% for a fourth straight season, and he provides some of the most valuable floor spacing in the NBA. Is that enough to secure one of the eight spots in the 3-Point Contest? Probably not. There are a lot of other great candidates such as Curry, A.J. Green, Harden, Tyler Herro, Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Maxey, Sam Merrill, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Duncan Robinson. But if Joe can sneak in, he’d become just the third OKC player in franchise history to participate.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the NBA All-Star game’s MVP award
The new All-Star game format will consist of two eight-player teams of Americans and one eight-player team of internationals. And that international team should be elite. It’ll likely have a starting five of Gilgeous-Alexander, Doncic, Avdija, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Wembanyama. The international team will win the tournament, and Gilgeous-Alexander will put up enough points to win MVP. He’ll become just the third OKC player to ever do so.
4. OKC will sell, not buy at the trade deadline
OKC won’t trade for Antetokounmpo, something that should go without saying but is discussed online. And I don’t even think it’ll make a move for a rotational player, like another shooter. The Thunder is already trying to build continuity after dealing with a ton of injuries to start the season, and adding a new piece to the puzzle would only make that process more difficult. The only trade I see OKC making is sending out Ousmane Dieng for future draft capital. Dieng is on the last year of his rookie contract, and the Thunder needs to create some roster space for the upcoming NBA Draft.
5. The rest of the NBA trade deadline will also be uneventful
I think Antetokounmpo will give Milwaukee the rest of this season to bring in talent before he decides his future. I think it’ll be easier for Dallas to trade Anthony Davis in the summer. I think there won’t be much of a market for guards such as Trae Young, Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball. And for all of those reasons, I don’t expect a ton of big moves to happen at the trade deadline.
6. Branden Carlson will receive a standard contract this season
If OKC does trade someone such as Dieng, it’ll be able to give a standard contract to one of its two-way guys for the rest of the season. The top candidate should be Branden Carlson, who has played well whenever OKC has been short-handed in the frontcourt. And if that happens again down the stretch of this season, it’ll be helpful to have another 7-footer who can space the floor.
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will break Wilt Chamberlain’s record of consecutive 20-point performances
Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 20 points in 102 consecutive regular-season games, which is the second-longest streak in NBA history. He only trails Wilt Chamberlain, who held a streak of 126 games from 1961-1963. The only way I can see Gilgeous-Alexander’s streak ending is if he has a slow start and he sits out the entire fourth quarter, which could happen. But with only 25 games to go before the record is his, I think the reigning MVP will get it done.
8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will join the 50/40/90 club
Only nine different NBA players have ever shot at least 50% from the field, 40% from deep and 90% from the free-throw line in a single season. It’s one of the most prestigious clubs in basketball, and Gilgeous-Alexander has a chance to join it. He’s shooting 55.9% from the field, 41.9% from deep and 88.3% from the free-throw line. Getting up to 90% on free throws will be tough. But Gilgeous-Alexander did so in 2022-23 when he shot 90.5% on 10.9 attempts per game compared to his 9.2 attempts this season, so it’s certainly possible.
9. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will also break his own record (again) this season
In 2023-24, Gilgeous-Alexander set the record for the fewest average turnovers (2.2) by a player who averaged at least 30 points (30.1) in a single season. He then set that record again last season, averaging 31.9 points and 1.8 turnovers. And he’s now averaging 32.2 points and two turnovers this season, which went up with recent five-turnover games against San Antonio and Memphis. But I expect that average to go back down, considering Gilgeous-Alexander was taking great care of the basketball before this shaky stretch. The game seems to have only slowed down more for the superstar guard, who has been dissecting defenses at will.
10. OKC will have two All-Defensive players, and one will be coming off its bench
Holmgren is the betting favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. He’s a lock for an All-Defensive team, assuming he meets the minimum requirement of 65 games played. OKC’s second All-Defensive player should be Cason Wallace, who leads the NBA in steals per game (2.2) and already has a Defensive Player of the Month award under his belt this season. And he’ll likely secure that selection despite coming off the bench, which he has done whenever OKC’s double-big lineup is fully healthy.
11. OKC will post the best regular-season point differential in NBA history
OKC set the record for the best regular-season point differential last season, beating teams by an average of 12.9 points. And it still boasts an average point differential of 14.2 this time around despite its two recent losses to San Antonio, which came by 35 combined points. I expect OKC to return to dominating against the rest of the NBA, and its point differential should only increase in the process.
12. OKC will become the third 70-win team in NBA history
At this point, it’s pretty safe to say OKC won’t win a record-setting 74 games this season. But it can still become just the third team in NBA history to win at least 70 games. That gives the Thunder room for roughly one loss every seven games, which seems doable. And I think it’ll get that done, joining the likes of 2015-16 Golden State (73-9) and 1995-95 Chicago (72-10).
13. OKC will cut its franchise record for fewest regular-season home losses in half
OKC went 35-6 at home last season, which set a franchise record for the fewest regular-season home losses. It’s currently 16-1, leaving it with 24 more home games. And it has tough remaining matchups with San Antonio (Jan. 13), Orlando (Feb. 3), Houston (Feb. 7), Cleveland (Feb. 22), Denver (Feb. 27 and March 9), Boston (March 12), Minnesota (March 15), New York (March 29), Detroit (March 30) and the Los Angeles Lakers (April 2). But only one of those 10 games will be on the second night of a back-to-back, and three of them will even come after a two-day rest. I’m predicting OKC to go 38-3 at home, cutting its franchise record for fewest losses in half.
14. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win two NBA awards this regular season
Jokic had a strong case for MVP before he suffered a left knee hyperextension, which will sideline him for at least four weeks and likely make him ineligible for the award. The clear frontrunner is now Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s averaging over 30 points on elite efficiency to lead the best team in the NBA. And he’d also be my pick for Clutch Player of the Year. Despite sitting out the entire fourth quarter 14 times this season, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in total clutch points (100). Cade Cunningham ranks second with 98 points, but he has played in five more clutch games than Gilgeous-Alexander.
15. OKC will flip the script in the playoffs against San Antonio
Yes, San Antonio is 3-0 in the regular season against OKC. But the postseason is a completely different stage, and it’s one the Thunder has way more experience in. I expect OKC’s defense to tighten the screws, preventing San Antonio’s guards from driving to the rim with ease. And I expect the Thunder to space the floor better on offense, with guys such as Williams and Lu Dort due for an increase in 3-point efficiency. San Antonio will still present a challenge, but I’d pick OKC to win that series in six games.
16. Jayson Tatum, Boston will reach the Eastern Conference finals
Boston (20-12) holds the third seed in the East despite being without Jayson Tatum, who’s been out since last postseason with a torn Achilles. But all reports claim that the superstar forward is determined to play this season. And if he does suit up, the Celtics would be a tough out in the playoffs. I’m predicting Boston to beat New York in an Eastern Conference semifinals series between the No. 2 and 3 seeds.
17. Detroit will reach the NBA Finals for the first time in 21 years
It might seem premature to predict an NBA Finals run by Detroit, which hasn’t even won a playoff series yet during this era. But don’t forget that the Pistons took the Knicks to six games last season, and they’ve only gotten better since then. Cunningham is a bonafide superstar, Jalen Duren is a dominant force down low and Detroit has a versatile group of wings. This is a well-rounded team that ranks top 10 in both offensive rating (seventh) and defensive rating (second), and I think it’ll beat Boston in the Eastern Conference semifinals to reach the NBA Finals.
18. OKC will end an eight-year streak of new NBA champions
The last team to win back-to-back championships was Golden State in 2017 and 2018. There have been seven different winners in each of the last seven seasons, but I think that streak will end this time around. OKC will survive a gauntlet of difficult playoff series in the West, ending with a conference finals win over San Antonio, and it’ll defeat Detroit in six games. Cunningham will be harassed by elite perimeter defenders, and Duren will struggle to operate in a paint crowded by 7-footers such as Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Finals MVP award will then go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again.
19. OKC’s five-year wait for Utah’s first-round pick won’t pay off
OKC acquired Utah’s 2024 first-round pick and Derrick Favors in July 2021. It sent out a 2027 second-round pick and cash considerations. The pick was top-10 protected in both 2024 and 2025 but did not convey, making it top-eight protected in 2026. And if it doesn’t convey this season, the obligation extinguishes. I expect Utah, which currently has the ninth-worst record in the NBA, to do all it can down the stretch to ensure it keeps that pick.
20. OKC won’t get a top-five pick from the Los Angeles Clippers
OKC’s prized pick in the 2026 draft is its one from the Los Angeles Clippers, which it acquired in the historically-lopsided 2019 deal. And while plenty of Thunder fans are fantasizing about landing Darryn Peterson or AJ Dybantsa, I don’t think that’ll materialize. Los Angeles has the seventh-worst record in the NBA at 11-21, but I’d expect it to jump Utah (12-20) and Dallas (12-22), two teams with incentive to lose. Of course, Los Angeles could still move up on lottery night, but I’m predicting its pick to ultimately land in the No. 6-8 range.
21. OKC will only make one first-round selection in the 2026 NBA Draft despite having up to four picks
OKC owns Philadelphia’s top-four protected pick, Utah’s top-eight protected pick and the two most favorable picks between Houston (top-four protected), the Los Angeles Clippers (unprotected) and its own pick. I don’t expect the Jazz’s pick to convey, leaving the Thunder with three. And of those three picks, I expect it to either trade two of them for future picks or package them to move up in the draft. Roster spots are becoming harder to free up, so it makes sense for OKC to only make one selection this year.
22. Isaiah Hartenstein will receive a pay day from another team in free agency
OKC will get expensive next season when new deals for Williams and Holmgren kick in. And one way to save money is to decline team options on players such as Hartenstein ($28.5 million), Dort ($18.2 million) and Kenrich Williams ($7.1 million). I think the Thunder will do that for all three players with hopes of re-signing them, but bringing back Hartenstein might be tough. The 27-year-old center is in his prime. He’s putting up career numbers. And he has proven he can help a contending team get over the hump. That should be enough for Hartenstein to get a strong offer from another team, and OKC could opt to let him walk as a result.
23. Lu Dort and Kenrich Williams will re-sign with OKC this summer
Dort and Kenrich Williams, on the other hand, seem more likely to re-sign with OKC this offseason. They’re both Thunder lifers, and their market in free agency likely won’t be as strong as Hartenstein. I would expect both players to stay put.
24. Atlanta will trade Trae Young this offseason
The Norman native and OU alum is undoubtedly a star. But Atlanta has shown glimpses of its future as a defensive-minded team with great size and versatility. And Young, a 6-foot-2 guard who simply doesn’t have the physical tools to even be a neutral defender, doesn’t fit that at all. I could see him landing with teams such as Charlotte, Brooklyn, Sacramento or even Minnesota.
25. Cason Wallace will be a full-time starter to begin next season
Based on my previous predictions, the departure of Hartenstein would create a starting spot for Wallace. And I think he’d thrive as an elite perimeter defender, a capable 3-point shooter and a threat in transition. Holmgren would also move to center, giving OKC more floor spacing with five shooters on the floor.
26. OKC won’t be the consensus favorite to win a championship once next season tips off
I think San Antonio will make a deep run in the playoffs this season, but it’ll be better prepared to win an NBA championship next time around. Wembanyama will arguably be a top-three player in the NBA next season. De’Aaron Fox will still be in his prime. And Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper will also continue to progress. The Spurs also have the future draft capital and cap flexibility to improve their roster. It’s a dangerous formula, which is why it wouldn’t surprise me if some people viewed San Antonio as the favorite to win next season’s championship.
Justin Martinez covers the Thunder and NBA for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Justin? He can be reached at jmartinez@oklahoman.com or on X/Twitter at @Justintohoops. Sign up for the Thunder Sports Minute newsletter to access more NBA coverage. Support Justin’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.